Post Season Report - Part 1

Well, it's been some time since I've updated the blog about the different leagues I'm in. Now that we're in the fantasy playoffs, time to talk about what happened and where I stand. If you've been reading along, you know that I'm in four leagues: The Whiplash FF League, Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League, The Foodstamp League and The Six Boroughs League. I also have been running my wife's team in her league since about Week 7. So, that's FIVE leagues - I need an intervention and will take care of that this offseason, but for now, here's where I stand in all the leagues:

The Whiplash Fantasy Football League: My Opa Locka Bowlsnappers are a dynasty in this dynasty league. After my third place finish last season, I am the #2 seed in the playoffs this year, with a record of 10-4. Drew Brees, Peyton Hillis, BJGE, Ray Rice, Colston, Garcon, Mike Wallace are the mainstays of the OLB this season. Some good bench depth with Ricky Williams, LT, Santana Moss and if Steve Smith (NYG) and Big Mike Williams can get healthy in Seattle, then I have some interesting options at WR. Gotta win this week to earn a spot in the Snap-Da-Bowl. Otherwise, it's a Scrape-Da-Bowl appearance two years in a row.

Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League: The Maury Conklin Group was ousted from the playoff picture about two weeks ago and it's no wonder why. Here are the first four picks of our draft this season: Miles Austin, Randy Moss, Ryan Grant and Antonio Gates. Not a bad team if it was LAST year!?! But this year, Moss is a bust, Ryan Grant went down week 1, Gates started strong but now is so injured it's tough to start him, and Austin is no better than Danny Amendola on your fantasy squad - not the first round type of production we drafted him for. On the bright side of things, we're kicking butt in the Pick 'Em Contest - sitting in first place (read the blog entries below for more details).

The Foodstamp League: Finished the season 7-6, which was good enough for the 5 seed in the 6 team playoffs. I won my first matchup last week 101-65, and now face off with the 1 seed, sitting at 9-4. A win this week puts me in the Championship game. I started the year with Tony Romo, but since he went down, I've had to plug the holes at QB on a weekly basis. Here's the lineup these days: Garrard, Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Peyton Hillis, MJD, Ahmad Bradshaw - and here's the depth: Mike Tolbert, Ryan Torain, Mike Williams (TB) and Santana Moss. The TE position is wobbly with the Todd Heap injury, but I picked up Owen Daniels for this week.

The Six Boroughs League: Finished the season 6-8, but was eligible for the playoffs through last week. 7-7 was good to make the playoffs as the 4 seed in this league, marked by parity. The first place team is 10-4 and the last place team is 5-9, 3 teams are 6-8, 3 teams are 7-7. This is a keeper league, so I'm excited about picking up Frank Gore last week after Philip dropped him. This team is middle of the pack due to inconsistent QB play from Peyton Manning, a reliance on Jahvid Best for far too long, the lack of a commitment to the running game in Chicago with Matt Forte, and again, I targeted Miles Austin and Randy Moss with my first two picks. Thank God I had Peyton Hillis to balance out those lost points. Then, Zach Miller fell apart in Oakland - it's been a scramble at TE ever since. I plugged the hole left by Randy Moss with Pierre Garcon, and on draft day, this was the time of year I drafted Ronnie Brown for. Now, I wouldn't start him if you paid me my league fees back.

So far, 2 for 4 making the playoffs, but now I'm going to pump up the job I've been able to do for my wife's team, the Misty Mountain Mamas. She started the year with a draft sheet that her husband gave her, and she came home with Philip Rivers, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis (yes, on her draft day, she drafted him in the next to last round, per my instructions), Jermichael Finley, Hakeem Nicks, Randy Moss, Marques Colston, and Shonn Greene. Not bad for her first draft ever, huh? Then, there was the Finley injury, which we first plugged with Zach Miller, then he went down, now we were able to get Jason Witten for some inexplicable reason. These days, I've been able to fill her roster with excellent options at WR to make up for the recent Hakeem Nicks injury difficulties: Mike Wallace, Mike Williams (TB) and Santonio Holmes are all on the roster - she's in first place at 8-5, and poised for a nice playoff run.

So, if you count my wife's team that I've been running basically since Ben Roethlisberger came back in Week 4, then I'm 3 out of 5 getting into the playoffs.

If you have been listening and following our advice, one could conclude from this limited sample size that you would have a 60% chance of making the playoffs in your fantasy league. This would assume that you have made good in-season waiver wire pickups, that you follow the games pretty closely, and that you read box scores on a weekly basis.

Something that I've been doing this season (and last season too, btw) is comparing the Vegas lines with fantasy numbers. Now, this is tricky stuff because gambling is not called 'winning' for a reason - it's tough to predict. But looking at the total Over/Under is helpful in predicting higher scoring matchups - grabbing a player in those games could prove useful. I had a Ben Obomanu revelation a few weeks ago that was very helpful based on a Vegas oddsmaker's total.

Another helpful stat that I've found to be useful when comparing defenses: in addition to the turnover ratio, there is 3rd down conversion rate. If you see what the defense's percentage allowed is on 3rd down, it could be a deciding factor between two defenses you're looking at starting. You want a defense that either a) isn't on the field much, if you are rewarded for low points allowed or b) is on the field a fair amount but doesn't allow more than 50% conversion rate on 3rd down.

These are some interesting numbers when analyzing matchups - everyone has their own ways of reading the tea leaves. These are a couple of new things I've been looking at. Good luck this week - Go win your league!