Week 17 - Three Way

I missed on Kitna and Philip missed on Reggie Wayne last week, but the rest of it was all good, including the sleepers. For the first time this season, and when it really counted, mind you, ALL the sleepers were good. I like that kind of action!

We will each give out our picks of a top QB, RB & WR that we see doing well that weekend (starter quality = top 10 in fantasy points at their respective positions that week). These aren't the obvious picks of Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson, but more of the guys you have to dig deeper to find. This week, we took a different approach - take players from meaningless games (Min/Det, SD/Den & Ari/SF) for my three way and Philip decided to only take players from the StL/Sea game, so without further ado...

Here are our Three Ways for Week 17:

Heath:

QB- Shaun Hill
RB- Ryan Mathews
WR- Michael Crabtree

Philip:

QB- Charlie Whitehurst
RB- Steven Jackson
WR- Danny Amendola

More Sleepers: Emmanuel Sanders, John Skelton, Jason Snelling, Danny Woodhead, Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, TJ Houshmandzadeh

Week 17 NFL Picks

Each week, Philip and I pick all the NFL games as part of the Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League. These are straight up picks, no point spreads involved. We have been known to address point spreads in our broadcast, though, as well as opinions on the totals of the games. Here are our picks for Week 17 with the tiebreaker being the total score home-away for the SNF game since there are no more Monday night games:

NE, DET, PIT, KC, ATL, BUF, BAL, NO, NYG, HOU, SD, ARI, PHI, IND, GB, STL

STL 23 - SEA - 20 43 Total Points

Away 23 - Home 20

Check out the Maury Conklin Group's record on ff.buffalowildwings.com

Our record this season: 155-85
Week 16: 9-7
Week 15: 11-5
Week 14: 11-5
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 12-4
Week 10: 9-5
Week 9: 11-2
Week 8: 8-5
Week 7: 9-5
Week 6: 11-3
Week 5: 4-10
Week 4: 8-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 2: 11-5
Week 1: 10-6

Week 17 Waiver Wire

Are you still playing for a championship in your league during Week 17?!!? Whoa, Nellie! Your league is hardcore, then. We do our waiver picks on the show, so if you want these in a timely fashion - listen up on Tuesday nights. The show was posted and running on the site this week, however, on Wednesday at 5:30pm ET due to the recent Tuesday Night Football game on NBC. We highlighted the main guys here and talk about their match-ups this week. You have to listen to the show to get the benefit of that. Here are the waiver wire pickups, in order of preference:

QB - Shaun Hill
Stephen McGee
Tim Tebow
Charlie Whitehurst
Trent Edwards

RB- Correll Buckhalter
Rashad Jennings

WR- Jason Hill
Emmanuel Sanders
Jerome Simpson
Danario Alexander
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Naaman Roosevelt

TE- Jimmy Graham
Jared Cook
Mickey Shuler

PK- Josh Brown

DST- Detroit
Kansas City
NY Jets
Arizona
Indianapolis

Week 16 - Three Way

I hit the three way pretty well last week, Philip missed on Roy Williams (he was on the inactive list on Sunday), but did okay with Kitna and Thomas Jones. It's tough doing this on Tuesday and have it still come out the same on Sunday. The sleeper list was as it always is, half and half of hit and miss. Collins, Stewart, and Nelson hit pretty well. This week is for the championship. This list may change by kickoff on Christmas night.

We will each give out our picks of a top QB, RB & WR that we see doing well that weekend (starter quality = top 10 in fantasy points at their respective positions that week). These aren't the obvious picks of Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson, but more of the guys you have to dig deeper to find. Philip has foregone picking a RB in favor of TE Brent Celek. He says that he'll score more than any RB he can pick this week....we'll see.

Here are our Three Ways for Week 16:

Heath:

QB- Jon Kitna
RB- Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis
WR- Mike Wallace

Philip:

QB- David Garrard
TE- Brent Celek
WR- Reggie Wayne

More Sleepers: LeGarrette Blount, Mike Sims-Walker, Darren McFadden, Mike Williams (TB), Ben Watson, Jason Witten

Week 16 NFL Picks

Each week, Philip and I pick all the NFL games as part of the Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League. These are straight up picks, no point spreads involved. We have been known to address point spreads in our broadcast, though, as well as opinions on the totals of the games. Here are our picks for Week 16 with the tiebreaker being the total score home-away for the MNF game:

PIT, DAL, JAX, MIA, STL, KC, CHI, NE, BAL, HOU, SD, IND, NYG, TB, PHI, NO

NO 27 - ATL - 24 Total Points

Away 27 - Home 24

Check out the Maury Conklin Group's record on ff.buffalowildwings.com

Our record this season: 146-78
Week 15: 11-5
Week 14: 11-5
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 12-4
Week 10: 9-5
Week 9: 11-2
Week 8: 8-5
Week 7: 9-5
Week 6: 11-3
Week 5: 4-10
Week 4: 8-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 2: 11-5
Week 1: 10-6

Week 16 Waiver Wire

We do our waiver picks on the show, so if you want these in a timely fashion - listen up on Tuesday night. The show was posted and running on the site at 9:30pm ET. We highlighted the main guys here and talk about their matchups this week. You have to listen to the show to get the benefit of that. Here are the waiver wire pickups, in order of preference:

QB - Rex Grossman
Matt Flynn
Tim Tebow
Charlie Whitehurst

RB- Tashard Choice
Maurice Morris
Derrick Ward
Lance Ball
Rashad Jennings

WR- Mike Sims-Walker
Andre Caldwell
Josh Morgan
Emmanuel Sanders
Arrelious Benn
David Nelson

TE- Jimmy Graham
Randy McMichael
Jared Cook

PK- David Buehler
Clint Stitser
Josh Brown
Josh Scobee
Jeff Reed
Jay Feely

DST- Dallas
New England
San Diego
Tampa Bay

Post Season Report - Part 1

Well, it's been some time since I've updated the blog about the different leagues I'm in. Now that we're in the fantasy playoffs, time to talk about what happened and where I stand. If you've been reading along, you know that I'm in four leagues: The Whiplash FF League, Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League, The Foodstamp League and The Six Boroughs League. I also have been running my wife's team in her league since about Week 7. So, that's FIVE leagues - I need an intervention and will take care of that this offseason, but for now, here's where I stand in all the leagues:

The Whiplash Fantasy Football League: My Opa Locka Bowlsnappers are a dynasty in this dynasty league. After my third place finish last season, I am the #2 seed in the playoffs this year, with a record of 10-4. Drew Brees, Peyton Hillis, BJGE, Ray Rice, Colston, Garcon, Mike Wallace are the mainstays of the OLB this season. Some good bench depth with Ricky Williams, LT, Santana Moss and if Steve Smith (NYG) and Big Mike Williams can get healthy in Seattle, then I have some interesting options at WR. Gotta win this week to earn a spot in the Snap-Da-Bowl. Otherwise, it's a Scrape-Da-Bowl appearance two years in a row.

Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League: The Maury Conklin Group was ousted from the playoff picture about two weeks ago and it's no wonder why. Here are the first four picks of our draft this season: Miles Austin, Randy Moss, Ryan Grant and Antonio Gates. Not a bad team if it was LAST year!?! But this year, Moss is a bust, Ryan Grant went down week 1, Gates started strong but now is so injured it's tough to start him, and Austin is no better than Danny Amendola on your fantasy squad - not the first round type of production we drafted him for. On the bright side of things, we're kicking butt in the Pick 'Em Contest - sitting in first place (read the blog entries below for more details).

The Foodstamp League: Finished the season 7-6, which was good enough for the 5 seed in the 6 team playoffs. I won my first matchup last week 101-65, and now face off with the 1 seed, sitting at 9-4. A win this week puts me in the Championship game. I started the year with Tony Romo, but since he went down, I've had to plug the holes at QB on a weekly basis. Here's the lineup these days: Garrard, Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Peyton Hillis, MJD, Ahmad Bradshaw - and here's the depth: Mike Tolbert, Ryan Torain, Mike Williams (TB) and Santana Moss. The TE position is wobbly with the Todd Heap injury, but I picked up Owen Daniels for this week.

The Six Boroughs League: Finished the season 6-8, but was eligible for the playoffs through last week. 7-7 was good to make the playoffs as the 4 seed in this league, marked by parity. The first place team is 10-4 and the last place team is 5-9, 3 teams are 6-8, 3 teams are 7-7. This is a keeper league, so I'm excited about picking up Frank Gore last week after Philip dropped him. This team is middle of the pack due to inconsistent QB play from Peyton Manning, a reliance on Jahvid Best for far too long, the lack of a commitment to the running game in Chicago with Matt Forte, and again, I targeted Miles Austin and Randy Moss with my first two picks. Thank God I had Peyton Hillis to balance out those lost points. Then, Zach Miller fell apart in Oakland - it's been a scramble at TE ever since. I plugged the hole left by Randy Moss with Pierre Garcon, and on draft day, this was the time of year I drafted Ronnie Brown for. Now, I wouldn't start him if you paid me my league fees back.

So far, 2 for 4 making the playoffs, but now I'm going to pump up the job I've been able to do for my wife's team, the Misty Mountain Mamas. She started the year with a draft sheet that her husband gave her, and she came home with Philip Rivers, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis (yes, on her draft day, she drafted him in the next to last round, per my instructions), Jermichael Finley, Hakeem Nicks, Randy Moss, Marques Colston, and Shonn Greene. Not bad for her first draft ever, huh? Then, there was the Finley injury, which we first plugged with Zach Miller, then he went down, now we were able to get Jason Witten for some inexplicable reason. These days, I've been able to fill her roster with excellent options at WR to make up for the recent Hakeem Nicks injury difficulties: Mike Wallace, Mike Williams (TB) and Santonio Holmes are all on the roster - she's in first place at 8-5, and poised for a nice playoff run.

So, if you count my wife's team that I've been running basically since Ben Roethlisberger came back in Week 4, then I'm 3 out of 5 getting into the playoffs.

If you have been listening and following our advice, one could conclude from this limited sample size that you would have a 60% chance of making the playoffs in your fantasy league. This would assume that you have made good in-season waiver wire pickups, that you follow the games pretty closely, and that you read box scores on a weekly basis.

Something that I've been doing this season (and last season too, btw) is comparing the Vegas lines with fantasy numbers. Now, this is tricky stuff because gambling is not called 'winning' for a reason - it's tough to predict. But looking at the total Over/Under is helpful in predicting higher scoring matchups - grabbing a player in those games could prove useful. I had a Ben Obomanu revelation a few weeks ago that was very helpful based on a Vegas oddsmaker's total.

Another helpful stat that I've found to be useful when comparing defenses: in addition to the turnover ratio, there is 3rd down conversion rate. If you see what the defense's percentage allowed is on 3rd down, it could be a deciding factor between two defenses you're looking at starting. You want a defense that either a) isn't on the field much, if you are rewarded for low points allowed or b) is on the field a fair amount but doesn't allow more than 50% conversion rate on 3rd down.

These are some interesting numbers when analyzing matchups - everyone has their own ways of reading the tea leaves. These are a couple of new things I've been looking at. Good luck this week - Go win your league!

Week 15 - Three Way

We had a better week predicting the Three Ways. I hit on Flacco and Knowshon Moreno - Philip hit on James Stewart and Hines Ward. We missed on Mike Williams (TB) and Sanchez. The sleeper list was good again, save for Starks and Ajirotutu, that is. We really like the guys we're putting up this week.

We will each give out our picks of a top QB, RB & WR that we see doing well that weekend (starter quality = top 10 in fantasy points at their respective positions that week). These aren't the obvious picks of Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson, but more of the guys you have to dig deeper to find.

Here are our Three Ways for Week 15:

Heath:

QB- Josh Freeman
RB- Steven Jackson
WR- Jacoby Ford

Philip:

QB- Jon Kitna
RB- Thomas Jones
WR- Roy Williams

More Sleepers: Kerry Collins, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, James Stewart, Pierre Garcon, Mohamed Massaquoi, David Nelson, Anthony Fasano, Marcedes Lewis

Week 15 NFL Picks

Each week, Philip and I pick all the NFL games as part of the Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League. These are straight up picks, no point spreads involved. We have been known to address point spreads in our broadcast, though, as well as opinions on the totals of the games. Here are our picks for Week 15 with the tiebreaker being the total score home-away for the MNF game:

SD, CIN, DAL, TEN, IND, STL, BUF, PHI, TB, CAR, NO, SEA, OAK, PIT, NE, CHI

CHI 23 - MIN 13 - 36 Total Points

Away 23 - Home 13

Check out the Maury Conklin Group's record on ff.buffalowildwings.com

Our record this season: 135-73
Week 14: 11-5
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 12-4
Week 10: 9-5
Week 9: 11-2
Week 8: 8-5
Week 7: 9-5
Week 6: 11-3
Week 5: 4-10
Week 4: 8-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 2: 11-5
Week 1: 10-6

Week 15 Waiver Wire

It has become customary to do our waiver picks on the show, so if you want these in a timely fashion - listen up on Tuesday night. The show was posted and running on the site at 8:20pm ET. We highlighted the main guys here and their matchups this week. You have to listen to the show to get the benefit of that. Here are the waiver wire pickups, in order of preference:

QB - Alex Smith
Tarvaris Jackson
Kerry Collins
Jason Campbell
Matt Flynn
John Skelton

RB- Ryan Torain
Tashard Choice
Anthony Dixon
Pierre Thomas
Rashad Jennings
Javarris James

WR- Arrelious Benn
David Nelson
Earl Bennett
Brandon Gibson
Mohamed Massaquoi
Ruvell Martin

TE- Owen Daniels
Bo Scaife
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham

PK- Jeff Reed
Jay Feely

DST- Tampa Bay
Carolina
Arizona

Week 14 - Three Way

We didn't have a good week in the Three Way department. Cassel and Turner were mediocre plays, but Obomanu got injured, ruining his fantasy day. Philip's guys weren't any better. The silver lining here (as there are most weeks) were the sleepers. Again, we hit on more than we miss - only Brian Hartline, Mike Tolbert weren't good for your fantasy team. Our picks are better this week - it's fantasy playoff time - no playing around.

We will each give out our picks of a top QB, RB & WR that we see doing well that weekend (starter quality = top 10 in fantasy points at their respective positions that week). These aren't the obvious picks of Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Andre Johnson, but more of the guys you have to dig deeper to find.

Here are our Three Ways for Week 13:

Heath:

QB- Joe Flacco
RB- Knowshon Moreno
WR- Mike Williams (TB)

Philip:

QB- Mark Sanchez
RB- James Stewart
WR- Hines Ward

More Sleepers: Tashard Choice, James Starks, Javarris James, Seyi Ajirotutu, Jacoby Ford, Brandon Gibson, Brent Celek, Ben Watson

Week 14 NFL Picks

Each week, Philip and I pick all the NFL games as part of the Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League. These are straight up picks, no point spreads involved. We have been known to address point spreads in our broadcast, though, as well as opinions on the totals of the games. Here are our picks for Week 14 with the tiebreaker being the total score home-away for the MNF game:

IND, CLE, NYG, PIT, TB, ATL, GB, JAC, NO, SEA, NE, NYJ, SD, DEN, PHI, BAL

BAL 31 - HOU 17 - 48 Total Points

Away 31 - Home 17

Check out the Maury Conklin Group's record on ff.buffalowildwings.com

Our record this season: 124-68
Week 13: 10-6
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 12-4
Week 10: 9-5
Week 9: 11-2
Week 8: 8-5
Week 7: 9-5
Week 6: 11-3
Week 5: 4-10
Week 4: 8-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 2: 11-5
Week 1: 10-6

Week 14 Waiver Wire

It has become customary to do our waiver picks on the show, so if you want these in a timely fashion - listen up on Tuesday night. The show was posted and running on the site at 11:20pm ET. I was talking about who I would use for just this week should you need the win to get you in your playoffs. You have to listen to the show to get the benefit of that. Here are the waiver wire pickups, in order of preference:

QB - Drew Stanton
Alex Smith
Sam Bradford
Tarvaris Jackson
Kerry Collins
Jake Delhomme
John Skelton

RB- James Starks
Tashard Choice
James Davis
Anthony Dixon
Pierre Thomas
Bernard Scott
Rashad Jennings
Javarris James

WR- Earl Bennett
Seyi Ajirotutu
Deon Butler
Dexter McCluster
Jacoby Ford
Golden Tate
Brandon Gibson
Mohamed Massaquoi
Anthony Armstrong
Kenny Britt

TE- Ben Watson
Kevin Boss
Brent Celek
Ed Dickson
Cameron Morrah
Jimmy Graham

PK- Dave Rayner
Josh Brown
Lawrence Tynes

DST- NY Jets
Green Bay
Atlanta
Baltimore