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So far, we've got 8 teams covered out of the 32: Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, Texans, Browns, and Panthers.
What do I need to do as a correspondent?
First off, you need to join the facebook page and the blog. Then, when an issue comes up with your team that is fantasy relevant, we will call on you to help us out with the real answer. Another thing we ask is that we get your favorite fan pages, blogs and websites involved - send us links to where you go to on the web so we can contact them and in the interest of cross-promotion, ask them if they want to link with our sites.
Other than that, you can participate as much or as little as you want/can. If you want to come on the show and preview the TE position or the Defense/ST in August, that would be fine. If you want to simply send a blurb to my email, the blog or facebook page whenever you have an update or a juicy bit of knowledge that people could use, that is also fine. You could also just call me on the phone every now and then and I'll ask you stuff about your team. OR vice versa, like we began with - we can call on you when we need to know something. Really, the level of your involvement is up to you and how the season progresses. We want it to be fun - regular guys talking fantasy football - something you do anyway!
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
RBs - "32" Rankings
I've done these rankings a little differently to show roster depth and keep some value in perspective for the reader. Here are the "32" Rankings, where the top 32 players are listed along with their teammates at the RB position. This is what's on the clipboard - the notes I've taken about how I see it happening now, in June. It's going to change as the weeks roll on, as all of you already know.
Many times we are faced with injury concerns during the fantasy season. Getting a leg up on who the backups are now and whether or not they're a part of the team's plan to be utilized when starters go down can be critical to your success.
By backing up your RB studs with value picks at the end of your draft (ie Last year, Laurence Maroney and Cadillac Williams could've been had for a 16th round pick or later), you can find yourself vying for a championship. Look for opportunity for the backup player to turn starter and then look at ability to run the football and be successful in the NFL on and off the field - and oh yes, can he block? If he can't, then his opportunity to turn starter will never blossom into what you want it to be. Find all three in a player, you have your sleeper to take late in the draft.
RBs – 32 Teams Rankings - Thursday, July 1, 2010
What the numbers mean: "32" Rank- 2010 Projected Position Rank - Player Name - (2009 rank-total fantasy pts) - 2010 Projected Total Fantasy Points - ADP avg. draft position by round - 2009 stats rush, rec
ALL RANKINGS ARE BASED ON A 12 TEAM REDRAFT LEAGUE, STANDARD SCORING FORMAT
1. 1RB Chris Johnson (1-342) 301.8 – 1st rnd – 358-2006rsh 14td, 50-503rec 2td
TENNESSEE – Chris Johnson was a beast last year, and if he was on your team you were probably vying for a championship. He finished with twelve 100+ yard games and became the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. He was also the leading receiver for the Titans, as he caught 50 balls for 503 yds – that’s over 2500 yards of offense and over 400 touches, folks. Out of the last eight RBs to have 350+ carries in a season, only two of them had similar seasons the following year, Adrian Peterson in 2009 and Tiki Barber in 2006. Now, CJ’s holding out for a new deal & asking for 30-40 million in guaranteed money. I don’t see Tennessee giving into this expectation, but I do see a fair deal being worked out and he’s back for 2 weeks in the preseason. Chris has a new RB coach (Kennedy Pola) and they’ve yet to have a day of practice together. Johnson will cost you a number one or two overall pick, unless he sustains an injury of some type in camp or the preseason. As far as backups go, gone are LenDale White and Chris Henry. However, Javon Ringer will compete with rookies LeGarrette Blount (yeah, the guy who punched Boise State defensive end Byron Hout in the face after Hout touched Blount on the shoulder.) and Stefon Johnson (practice squad) for the backup job. If Chris Johnson were to miss time, Ringer and Blount would split the load, I would think, with Blount as more of the between the tackles, goal line back. The fantasy playoffs look decent for the Titans: IND, HOU, @KC – none of those run defenses scare me.
2. 2RB Adrian Peterson (2-227)297.9 – 1st rnd – 315-1389rsh 18td, 43-436rec – 6fum
53RB Toby Gerhart (proj -83) 79 - 14th rnd – 95-375rush 5td, 22-154rec
MINNESOTA – If you have a top pick in your draft, ADP will be one of the top 2 or 3 players taken and he should be. He doubled his reception totals last season, making Chester Taylor expendable, he’s the clear starter and he’s finished as a top five fantasy back the past two seasons. His fumbling problem is a concern, but his TD totals more than make up for that.
Toby Gerhart will be used like Chester Taylor was, but has better abilities running the football –the guy just blows people up. His draft stock could rise in the preseason, if he’s able to bring his physical running style to the next level. Too bad he’s in a clear backup role, I was excited about him going to a team where he could compete for a starting job. Albert Young is the other backup and is very good, but doesn’t have the skills of Gerhart. Both backups would have value should Adrian Peterson go down with injury, with Gerhart as a handcuff and Young off the waiver wire.
3. 3RB Maurice Jones-Drew (3-270) 297.8 – 1st rnd – 312-1391rush 15tds, 53-374rec 1td
JACKSONVILLE – MJD is a true RB1. In every game last season, Jones-Drew scored a touchdown, had five receptions, or rushed for at least 60 yards. It's reasons like these that make MJD a top-three pick in every fantasy league this year. Now that he’s proved he can handle double the workload that he’s had prior to last year – can he do it again? Yes, would be a smart bet. If he gets injured, there are guys there who can do some things: Rashad Jennings is a bigger back, did a nice job last year averaging over 5 yds/carry with his 39 touches and has NFL pedigree. He’s the main backup, although the Jaguars drafted Deji Karim (**deep sleeper**) from Southern Illinois as a third down back/kick returner, and has a similar skill set to Jones-Drew, though not as dynamic. So, there could be competition in camp for the backup role.
4. 4RB Ray Rice (4-245) 287.8 1rnd – 254-1339rush 7td, 78-702rec 1td
47RB Willis McGahee (25-144) 114.9 10-11rnd - 109-544rush 12td, 15-85rec 2td
BALTIMORE – A favorable fantasy playoff schedule (@HOU, NO, @CLE) and the Ravens history of running the football has me very high on Rice and Willis McGahee, who has one year left on his deal. Yes, he vultured TDs from Rice last season (will that happen again?) and Ray may get less touches in the passing game with better WR options but Cam Cameron likes to keep the backs involved in his offenses, there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff. Jalen Parmele is another back to watch, a special teamer and former Miami Dolphin under Cam Cameron.
5. 5RB Frank Gore (6-226) 248.3 1rnd – 229-1120rsh 10td, 52-406rec 3td
SAN FRANCISCO – Frank Gore is the main man here and should be again. He’s never had 10tds in a season before last year, and he did add 10 catches to his reception totals from the year before. He’s had injury troubles every year he’s been in the league, and that may scare most owners off given that he’s a high to mid-first round pick, going as early as #5 in drafts. He’s the clear #1 back, though, without a question he’ll get his touches. Glen Coffee is the back up, but when given the opportunity last season, he averaged 2.7 YPC. That’s just not going to cut it in the NFL. So, the Niners have Miss St rookie **Anthony Dixon** (handcuff sleeper) fall into their laps in the 6th round because of off the field issues. Dixon has a DUI against his name when in July 2009 an intoxicated Dixon and two empty champagne bottles were found in his car. He showed up out of shape several times in college and there are concerns about whether he is fast enough to succeed at this level. That being said, he has talent, is a good dynasty prospect as a future replacement for Gore down the line when Gore starts wearing down and those in redraft leagues will need to consider Dixon if he overtakes Coffee for the #2 RB position in training camp.
6. 6RB Michael Turner (22-146) 204.3 2 rnd – 178-871rush 10td, 5-35rec
62RB Jason Snelling (38-114) 71.8 16-17rnd – 142-613rush 4td, 30-259rec
ATLANTA – Turner followed up his #2RB season of 2008 with a #22 finish in 2009 with an ankle injury marring the latter part of his season- he was pronounced completely healthy this past March, but the team wants to “monitor” his touches so he can play all season. I like his fantasy playoff schedule (@CAR, @SEA, NO) but he doesn’t catch many balls, which lowers his value in PPR leagues. A sore hip flexor killed Jerious Norwood’s 2009, but he wasn’t effective before the injury. The team signed him to a RFA one year tender, but Snelling’s stint as a backup last season could put Norwood on the bubble – stay tuned. Jason Snelling did a good job and even caught 30 balls – handcuff him to Turner in your draft. Another back to watch is undrafted FA rookie Dmitri Nance out of Arizona State.
7. 7RB Steven Jackson (10-193) 246.5 1-2rnd – 325-1424rush 4td, 50-314rec
ST LOUIS - In 2006 - the last time Jackson played for a decent team - he had 2,334 yards from scrimmage, the sixth most in NFL history. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't played for a good team since. Everyone knows that he’s the best player on the team, so he has a target on his back. Yes, the same back he had surgery to repair a herniated disk. He says he’s recovered from the surgery and expects big things this season. What does the rest of the team look like is my question? He can’t be an elite RB scoring only 4TDs on 375 touches. His value is that there is no one else on the roster that can challenge him for carries unless he’s injured. They drafted Chris Ogbonnaya last year, and they’re hoping he can stay healthy and be a change of pace back to Jackson. Ken Darby is the guy who would get carries if Jackson goes down with injury. He’s faster than Ogbonnaya and would be worth starting if given the opportunity –though, not as good as Steven Jackson. The Rams have @NO, KC, SF for the fantasy playoffs, which doesn’t look good for St. Louis – they’re not expected to do well this year.
8. 8RB DeAngelo Williams (14-174) 207.3 1-2rnd – 216-1117rush 7td, 29-252rec
11RB Jonathan Stewart (11-188) 193.3 1-2rnd – 221-1133rush 10td, 18-139rec 1td
CAROLINA – Both Williams and Stewart can be top 15 fantasy backs as the Panthers ran it 525 times last season (2nd most in the NFL). DeAngelo is the better PPR back (#8 in RB rec in 2009). He missed 3 games with ankle trouble but got that cleaned up and will be ready for camp. Stewart had offseason surgery to repair a bone spur that was affecting his Achilles tendon and ankle all last season. He finished as the 11th best RB when injured. What can he do when healthy this year? Draft him and find out. Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson are the backups, more special teams guys, but Sutton would be the guy if one of the big 2 goes down.
9. 9RB Rashard Mendenhall (13-178) 220 – 1rnd -242-1108rush 7td, 25-261rec 1td, 3fum
PITTSBURGH – Everyone is expecting the Steelers to be a run first football team this year, with Roethlisberger missing at least the first 4 weeks. This may be true. There is news of using a FB as a lead blocker in Steeler land, and the coaches’ expectations made public that they expect more from Mendenhall – welcome back, Steeler Football. There seems to be an “open competition” between Mewelde Moore and Ga Tech rookie **Jonathan Dwyer** (sleeper alert) for the backup job, although I believe that Dwyer will become the goal line back and Moore keeps his job for this year. Dwyer reminds me a little of Michael Turner, the way he runs people over is a concern for injuries, though. He’s worth picking up late in your drafts as a guy to stash away. Moore is either your handcuff or a waiver wire pick, depending on the health of Mendenhall. The Steelers are home for the fantasy playoffs: CIN, NYJ, CAR. Keep an eye on who they get to replace Colon on the O-line - that's a big ? for this running game today.
10. 10RB Ryan Grant (8-208) 206.7 – 1-2rnd – 282-1253rush 11td, 25-197rec
GREEN BAY – Ryan Grant could be the 5th back taken off the board and possibly be worth it. As teams look to stop the Packers passing attack, the O-Line did improve as the year went on, Ryan Grant could be the guy to move up into the top 10 RBs. I don’t think he repeats the slow start he had last season. Brandon Jackson is the backup, and he is a serviceable replacement should injury befall Grant. The Packers have Kregg Lumpkin and are also very high on rookie James Starks (**deep sleeper**), who could compete with Jackson for the backup job. He has an injured hamstring, but should be ready for training camp.
11. 12RB Ryan Mathews (proj 17-190) 191.7 – 3-4rnd -
39RB Darren Sproles (35-123) 147.6 – 8-9rnd – 93-343rus 3td, 45-497rec 4td
SAN DIEGO – Ryan Mathews was the leading rusher in the NCAA last season (Shonn Greene was the year before, btw), and he brings his skill set to SD to replace Tomlinson. He should be one of the first two rookie RBs taken simply because of the opportunity he has in front of him in an excellent offense to succeed and score TDs. He’s good at everything, but nothing stands out and WOWs you as a special skill that he has – he’s master of being good at everything. He will get every opportunity to succeed and if healthy should rush for at least 1000 yards and double digit TDs in this offense. Sproles does have speed that wows you and if he’s going well, the coaches won’t feel compelled to take him out of the game because the other back is a future Hall of Famer. He returns punts and is on the kickoff team as well. If you get points for special teams play, he is more valuable. Chargers have KC, SF, @CIN for the fantasy playoffs, which isn’t bad – Mathews has a high ceiling and I like the value of Sproles this year, as his touches could go up. We need to look at that O-line, though. Jacob Hester is a backup to know on this team – he’s been used sparingly and has hung around on Special Teams. If something goes wrong with Mathews, you’ll learn his name when someone else is picking him up off the waiver wire. Two other guys are rookie Shawnbrey McNeal and Marcus Mason - aka the future Sproles replacement and the former Redskin backup RB.
12. 13RB Chris Wells (30-131) 208.2 2-3 rnd – 176-793rush 8td, 12-123rec
45RB Tim Hightower(26-141) 142.4 8-9 round – 143-598rush 7td, 63-428rec
ARIZONA – Retirement of Kurt Warner and signing of Alan Faneca has everyone believing that they will lean on the run more in Arizona. Both lead backs have good per carry avg. (4.2 for Hightower and 4.5 for Wells). Wells finished strong last season and has injury history, but Hightower will continue to catch screens and is a great RB4 later in your draft. Jason Wright and LeRod Stephens-Howling are the backups, with Howling more of a special teams guy, although they are interested in giving him a look on 3rd downs.
13. 14RB Pierre Thomas (20-155) 207.5 – 3-4rnd,147-793rush 6td, 39-302rec 2td
29RB Reggie Bush (54-116) 185.4 – 5-7rnd, 70-390rush 5td, 47-335rec 3td
NEW ORLEANS – Thomas does a lot with a little. He played in 14 games last year, started only 6 of them, yet ran for almost 800 yds, with a 5.4 YPC avg., caught 39 balls for over 300 yds and scored 8 times. He signed his FA tender offer but wants a long-term deal. They may sign him to a fair deal, as he is valuable and kept Mendenhall on the bench when in college. He’s never played a full season and is in a clear 3 headed RB situation, with Reggie Bush and 2nd year guy **Lynell Hamilton**, who will get his shot to replace Mike Bell. He did a fair job in the playoffs in that role, scoring vs. the Cardinals. He has value as a goal line back and injury replacement for Thomas &/or Reggie Bush. Reggie Bush finished last season just behind Steve Slaton as a RB54 – he’s better in a PPR format, going as early as the end of the 5th round. I’d also count on Saints RBs in the middle of the season rather than at the beginning/end based on the schedule.
14. 15RB Cedric Benson (15-172) 194.7 – 2rnd – 301-1251rush 6td, 17-111rec
CINCINNATI – Few RB situations exist in the NFL where there is one back to shoulder the load, but Cincy has one of them. Benson is your starter, and you know this going in. He’s also a guy who couldn’t start his boat without blowing into a breathalyzer, he’s never played a 16 game season, but he’s clearly cleaned up his life with his success last season and strong playoff showing. Now, there are assault charges pending over an incident in TX. Let's see how the facts shake out. Philip says that Benson is a guy who can't handle success. I say innocent until proven guilty. Bernard Scott is the change of pace back, but there are rumblings about getting a veteran backup for Benson (ala Larry Johnson last year)- he came off the practice field with a foot injury this past week. LenDale White is a rumor, Marshawn Lynch could be a possibility here, but the guys who will get first crack at the true back up job in camp will be **Cedric Peerman** and Walter Mendenhall (CUT 6/20). I like Peerman as a **deep sleeper guy and have since last season when drafted by the Ravens.
15. 16RB Shonn Greene (41-60) 191.9 – 2-3rnd, 109-541rush 2td, 0rec, 3fum
38RB LaDainian Tomlinson (19-156)140.2 – 7-8rnd, 223-730rush 12td, 20-154rec, 2fum
NEW YORK JETS – Shonn Greene has parlayed his strong work in the playoffs into the starting RB job for the Jets. He’s completely recovered from the torn rib cartilage suffered in the second half of the AFC Championship game, and should be a weekly contributor with that massive O-line blocking for him. Tomlinson may see some goal line carries as well as a 3rd down role on obvious passing downs. There is talk that they’re going to use these guys in tandem and ride the hot hand. Let’s see what Tomlinson has in the preseason (a first for him). His yards per carry have dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 to last year's bottoming out at 3.3. He has also seen his receiving yardage drop progressively over that since 2007, and last year's 20 receptions for 154 yards were easily the worst of his career (his previous career lows were 51 and 357). 2009 was also the first time Tomlinson failed to crack the league's top ten fantasy running backs. Rookie Joe McKnight is the third back, drafted out of USC, to replace Leon Washington who was traded to Seattle. He averaged over 6 YPC in college – let’s watch him and see if his game translates to the NFL.
16. 17RB Knowshon Moreno (34-161) 205.1 – 3-4rnd, 247-947rush 7td, 28-213rec 2td 4fum
52RB Correll Buckhalter (42-90) 118.4 – 14-15rnd, 140/642rush 1td, 31/240rec 2fum
DENVER – The Broncos want to run more of a power running game, which begs the question if Knowshon Moreno can handle the load. No runs over 18 yds, no 100 yd games, only 3.8 yds/rush compared to Buckhalter’s 5.3 yd. avg. makes Correll Buckhalter a better value play because you don’t have to spend a 3rd or 4th rounder on him. Still, Moreno will get a majority of the touches this season & should be a decent RB2 on fantasy squads. His reception totals may rise with Brandon Marshall gone as well, which is something to consider in PPR leagues. A decent fantasy playoff schedule is a plus (@ARI, @OAK, HOU) – let’s see how Knowshon looks in preseason games and if he’s more explosive than a 31 year old veteran with a history of knee trouble. JJ Arrington is back in the fold, and says he’s 80-85% healthy. Rumors of Brian Westbrook are being squelched with Arrington’s return…stay tuned. Lance Ball and NC State rookie **Toney Baker** (deep sleeper) are backups looking to make the roster on special teams.
17. 18RB Jamaal Charles (12-185) 191.7 – 3-4rnd – 190-1120rush 7td, 40-297rec 1td
42RB Thomas Jones (5-229) 95.4 - 8-9rnd – 332-1402rush 14td, 10-58rec
KANSAS CITY –Jamaal Charles is the first player in NFL history to have over 1,100 yards rushing on less than 200 carries. He didn’t take over the full-time load until week ten and finished as the #12 RB. He’s exciting to watch, regularly beats defenders to the edge with his speed, and was primed to be a breakout RB1 this season despite a shoulder injury he is rehabbing…then KC signed Thomas Jones. We have to temper our enthusiasm now, as Jones likely becomes the goal line back at LEAST. It also knocks Jones down as a fantasy RB because he doesn’t get to run behind the Jets O-line. You have to look at these players, however, because they have a decent fantasy playoff schedule (@SD, @STL, TEN). The team cut Kolby Smith last week, and Jackie Battle, Javarris Williams, and Kestahn Moore may be fighting for one roster spot between them, given that Dexter McCluster will be given touches out of the backfield as well.
18. 19RB Joseph Addai (9-197) 180.1 – 4rnd - 219-828rush 10td, 51-336rec 3td
40RB Donald Brown (58-62) 118.7 – 7-8rnd - 78-281rush 3td, 11-169rec
INDIANAPOLIS – Most of the value of the Indy RB group comes from scoring TDs at the goal line after the passing game gets into the red zone. Addai is one of those quiet producers at the position, a steady Eddie. He’s also in a contract year. This could mean that the coaching staff limits his touches so they can see if Donald Brown is the future or they could use Addai as usual and he gets to showcase what he can do if Indy doesn’t re-sign him in the offseason. Brown was unimpressive as a rookie, with only 3.8 yds/carry, playing 11 games due to knee injury, and his highest rushing total was 58 yards (45 of them came on one play). If he shows improvement, he could be a steal. Let’s look at him in the preseason. Mike Hart and Devin Moore round out depth at the position.
19. 20RB Felix Jones (40-93) 185.7 – 2-3rnd – 116-685rush 3td, 19-119rec
31RB Marion Barber (12-153) 96.8 - 3-4rnd – 214-932rush 7td, 26-221
53RB Tashard Choice (52-67) 78 - 11-12rnd - 64-349rush 3td, 15-132rec
DALLAS – Jerry Jones is a Razorback. He handpicked Felix Jones in the 2008 draft, and Jerry wants Felix to emerge even though Marion Barber has outperformed him in every facet of the game. Barber was slowed by quadriceps injuries last season, affecting his ability to perform. Jones has had durability issues as well (strained PCL), but he finished strong last year and played very well in the playoffs. Tashard Choice may be the value pick here, though. You can get him late in the draft, he’ll start a couple of weeks for you when the regulars are injured, worth the risk. Fantasy playoff schedule is middling (PHI, WASH, @ARI). The decision to take Felix Jones is risky given where you’ll need to take him, the fact that he had over 10 carries only 4x last season and his injury history.
20. 21RB Jahvid Best (162) 176.7 – 4-5rnd - proj. 200-900rush 6td, 43-300rec 1td
DETROIT – The first or second rookie RB off the board should be Jahvid Best, given the opportunity in front of him to start right away without much resistance. The two concerns about him are his size (5’10” – 199 lbs) and his concussion history. If you saw how his season ended at Cal last year, and watched his eyes roll up into his head, you’ll know why there are concerns – youtube it. He has all the tools of Ray Rice or a Brian Westbrook, however, and is the same size as Rice was when he was a rookie. Kevin Smith will probably be on the PUP list to start the year, as he blew out his knee last season and had a December operation to repair it. If you have space on your roster, you can draft him late as a RB3. For the backup job, Maurice Morris will battle last year’s rookie RB Aaron Brown (**sleeper**), who did well on special teams and carried the ball well when called upon. MoMo may be a camp casualty given his lackluster performance as a starter last season. DeDe Dorsey (via Indy & Cincy) will hold a roster spot until Kevin Smith returns.
21. 22RB LeSean McCoy (52-117) 177.7- 3-4rnd -155-637rush 4td, 40-308rec
PHILADELPHIA – I can see this going two ways: 1- McCoy shows the elusiveness promised when he came out of Pitt last year & he looks like Tony Dorsett, rushes and catches 1500 yards & scores 10 TDs in a high powered offense. 2- Committee Approach – Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver eat into LeSean’s carries and receptions while running a true West Coast offense this season. There are plenty of touches to go around with Bell as the goal line back, Weaver as Tom Rathman and McCoy as Roger Craig circa 1984 (1100 - 1300 yards). I vote for #2 – McCoy never looked the part or took the reins and finished as the 37th fantasy RB last year. They say he’s done a 180 this season& that would be welcome to Eagles fans. The fantasy playoffs don’t do the Eagles ANY favors: @DAL, @NYG, MINN …ouch. Tough to like the Eagles in crunch time this year, although there are players out there who will tell you that big players step up in big games. Is McCoy that big player? Eldra Buckley is the third back, but may give way to rookie Charles Scott, who is listed as fullback, but may line up at tailback to justify the guy being on the roster. It’s further evidence of how they’d like to use Weaver and play matchups in the running game like the Saints do. They won the Super Bowl, by the way, and it’s a copycat league.
22. 23RB Ronnie Brown (32-125) 171.6 – 3-4rnd - 147-648rush 8td, 14-98rec
24RB Ricky Williams(7-212) 161.8 – 5-6rnd - 241-1121rush 11td, 35-264rec 2td
MIAMI – Ronnie Brown had a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot end his season in Week 10, still he was the 32nd RB and was productive before the injury. He’s in the last year of his contract, has not signed his tender offer because he wants a new long-term deal, was rumored in several trades in the offseason, and was charged with driving under the influence of alcohol and improper lane use in Atlanta. Still, he will be the Dolphins starting RB and will share carries with Ricky Williams. He had a screw removed from his foot last week and is holding off on running for 2 weeks while the foot heals. Ricky turned back the clock last year, rushed for over 1000 yds and finished as the #7 RB. Clearly his difficulties and motivations about football have been resolved and even after 10 years in the NFL, there is enough in the tank for Dolphin fans to yell RUN RICKY RUN on Sunday afternoons. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs are the backups to keep an eye on. Hilliard had some action as the #2 last season and Cobbs is back from ACL surgery rather quickly. He’s Mr. Versatility for the Fish, in the backfield, in the wildcat, on special teams, and is an excellent locker room guy. Other guys in camp will be Kory Sheets, who was brought in last year when Cobbs went down. He may not make the roster.
23. 26RB Ahmad Bradshaw (29-135) 164.9 – 6-7rnd,163-778rush 7td, 21-207rec
25RB Brandon Jacobs (29-135) 140.5 – 5-6rnd, 224-835rush 5td, 18-184rec 1td
NEW YORK GIANTS – Jacobs was a disappointment last year. After Derrick Ward left, he was supposed to be the battering ram back, physical and scoring TDs – he did not reach 900 yards and only scored 5 times. Now, Jacobs played on a bad knee all year long, an injury many believe would have sidelined other backs. He’ll be ready for training camp. On the other hand, Ahmad Bradshaw looked flat out better than him last year. Then after the Oakland game, Bradshaw had to wear protective boots to heal his ankles and feet on a weekly basis. Bradshaw had screws put in both feet to stabilize fractured bones and a procedure on his ankle, and should be ready for training camp. He’s in a contract year, and I expect him to have a slightly better year than Jacobs because of his involvement in the passing game. The backups Danny Ware and Andre Brown (Achilles injury) haven’t shown much to inspire confidence if Bradshaw & Jacobs go down this season. Gartrell Johnson (2nd year – Univ. of Miami) looked good for San Diego last preseason, and could be a guy to watch this year.
24. 27RB Matt Forte (18-159) 139.1 – 4-6rnd - 258-949rush 4td, 57-471rec
34RB Chester Taylor (43-83) 150.2 – 10rnd – 93-332rush 1td, 44-389rec 1td
CHICAGO – Forte was a big disappointment last season due to injuries (hamstring & knee) and poor blocking by the offensive line. He’s been training in Florida and has pronounced himself completely healthy, faster and stronger. Mike Martz is talking him up as the Marshall Faulk focal point of the offense as he’s an excellent receiver. If he gets hurt or slips up in any way, Chester Taylor will be the man here. They targeted him in free agency for a reason. I don’t like the O-line here and the fantasy playoff schedule is tough (NE, @MIN, NYJ). I like the upside possibilities just where will that put you at the end – can these guys help you win your league? Kahlil Bell showed some flashes last season but not enough to warrant a regular spot, Garrett Wolfe is a change of pace, Eric Bienemy or Eric Metcalfe type back.
25. 28RB Cadillac Williams (26-144) 160.5 – 6-8rnd, 209-816rush 4td, 29-219rec 3td
57RB Derrick Ward (49-74) 88.1 – 15 rnd, 115-414rush 1td, 20-150rec 2td
TAMPA BAY – Cadillac Williams played a 16 game season for the first time in his career and will be the unquestioned #1RB on the Bucs. He’s the first player in the NFL to come back from torn patellar tendons in both knees. Derrick Ward was brought in to be a part of a 2-2-1 committee approach with Cadillac and Earnest Graham, and never really got going. He attributed his poor year to his reaction to losing all the time. He’ll have a better year this season, as he’ll spell Cadillac to keep him fresh. Earnest Graham is listed at FB, but would be the #3 RB on this team and would carry the load with Ward should the Caddy break down again. I LOVE the fantasy playoffs for the Bucs: @WASH, DET, SEA.
26. 30RB Fred Jackson (16-170) 144.4 – 6-7rnd - 238-1062rush 2td, 46-371 2td
35RB C.J. Spiller (141) 129.9 – 5-6rnd – proj. 130-600rush 4td, 40-350 2td
BUFFALO – What a messy situation with Marshawn Lynch. Do they trade him or keep him as a 3rd down back, they’re asking for a 4th round pick. Let’s watch this in camp, perhaps a RB goes down with injury and there you have Lynch’s landing spot. Jackson is the starter here, I feel. He’s the better play this year only, then will give over to Spiller as the lead back in the RBBC
27. 32RB Michael Bush (54-82) 153.7 – 8-9rnd,123-589rush 3td, 17-105rec
43RB Darren McFadden (43-59) 117.6 – 104-356rush 1td, 21-245rec, 3fum
OAKLAND – Justin Fargas is gone and someone is going to have to pick up the slack. My money is on Michael Bush, the better rusher between the tackles. 140 – 700 yds translates to 200 – 1000 yds. With a QB that actually shows up to practice ready to work and Fargas out of the picture, I can see 60 more touches for Bush and 40 more targets for DMC. Michael Bennett and Rock Cartwright are the backups and if there are injuries to the lead backs, both have proven to be valuable waiver wire pickups in the past. I don’t love their fantasy playoff schedule, but their overall schedule is interesting.
28. 33RB Justin Forsett (34-124) 167.8 – 7-8rnd, 147-619rush 4td, 41-350rec 1td
51RB Leon Washington (74-44) 88.6 – 10-11rnd, 71-330rush 0td, 15-131rec
63RB Julius Jones (40-113) 72.4 - 17-18rnd, 177-663rush 2td, 35-232rec 2td
SEATTLE – LenDale White was let go and we later find out that he’s facing a 4 game suspension for marijuana use. He’s out of the picture & looking for a job (Bengals?). Justin Forsett was the best RB in Seattle last year, 5.4 Yards Per Carry led the team. 20 of his 114 carries came before his breakout performance in week 10. The numbers say he should be the starter, but concerns about his size (5’8” 194 lbs.) loom as Marshawn Lynch trade rumors persist – stay tuned. Justin is missing mini-camp because of his wedding – congratulations to Mr. and Mrs. Forsett. Julius Jones is being given every opportunity to shine with the new Pete Carroll regime. There is “open competition” at every position is the motto in Seattle, another one is “the best players will play”. So far, the coaching staff likes what they see out of Jones. Leon Washington was looking pretty good last season through the first six games – 71 carries for 330 yds – but then broke his right leg in the Oakland game. He continues to rehab and there have been conflicting reports. 2 weeks ago, he was said to start the season on the PUP list, now there’s hope that he’ll be ready for training camp – they also said that they would take it slow with him. If you project last year’s stats out to 16 games, Leon gains 880 yards – I don’t see it working out like that. There’s also talk that FB Quinton Ganther (DUI - check on his status) becoming the goal line back. That would limit the value of all the other backs on the roster. This situation has committee written all over it. Unless Lynch gets to Seattle, I see Forsett earning the #1 RB in camp, Jones as #2, Washington as the third down back (and if Leon's completely healthy, Jones could be cut).
29. 36RB Clinton Portis (54-64) 143.6 – 7-9rnd – 124-494rush 1td, 9-57rec 1td
50RB Larry Johnson (55-62) 80 – 12-13rnd - 178-562rush 0td, 15-80rec 0td
WASHINGTON – Shanahan’s back and this can be a nightmare for fantasy owners, trying to figure out what Mike’s going to do about his RBs for the season, week-to-week, quarter to quarter, or even series to series. Clinton Portis was drafted by Denver when Shanahan was coach and did well there, but then after a pair of 1500+ seasons, Portis was shipped to Washington. Portis is listed as the #1 RB, but with Larry Johnson who looked decent in his games with Cincinnati last year and will compete for the lead back spot alongside Willie Parker and Ryan Torain. I like their playoff schedule: TB, @DAL, @JAX. This has a committee approach feel to it. I’ll be staying away or picking up one of these players late in my draft looking for value.
30. 37RB Jerome Harrison (14-146) 146.1 – 5-6rnd – 194-862rush 5td, 34-220rec 2td
43RB Montario Hardesty (110) 112 - 8-9rnd – proj. 170-717rush 5td, 14-100rec
CLEVELAND – Jamal Lewis is gone, Jerome Harrison spent most of the season on the bench behind him and then exploded for the best three game stretch ever by a fantasy RB. He’s earned the right to compete (again) for the starting job, wants a new contract, and should be a good receiver out of the backfield as the Browns play from behind a lot. The Browns drafted Montario Hardesty out of Tennessee (pro style offense) and he’s been getting the chance to impress in OTAs and has picked up things nicely. Both of these backs should be RB3s, but Harrison will cost you a higher pick than Hardesty. If one of them gets dinged up, there are others waiting in the wings: Peyton Hillis, Chris Jennings and James Davis. Hillis will stick with the team, Jennings and Davis may be in a battle for a roster spot – Davis impressed last preseason only to be injured – **sleeper alert**.
31. 41RB Laurence Maroney (31-130) 131.1 – 194-757rush 9td, 14-99rec – 4FUM
61RB Kevin Faulk (55-86) 88 – 83-376rush 2td, 36-323rec 1td
NEW ENGLAND – Laurence Maroney was good draft value last year. He was drafted 14th round or later and finished the season in between Beanie Wells and Ronnie Brown. That being said, he's never had 200 carries, 850 rushing yards, double digit touchdowns, or finished higher than #25 fantasy RB in a season. He’s also had a penchant for fumbling at the goal line and often finds a way to get in the coach’s doghouse. Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris (both are in a contract year) are both interesting veteran backups to take a chance on late in your drafts, but neither seems to stay healthy – watch them in camp to see how they perform. The guy for the future in terms of a dynasty prospect is **BenJarvis Green-Ellis**, however there are rumblings about him being on the bubble with his roster space being needed for younger talent – he’s in a contract year & has been on the practice squad before. My bet is that one of the veterans may be on the move. Kevin Faulk is a guy to take the round before you get your kicker in larger roster-sized PPR leagues, as a bye week fill-in, but usually he can be found on the waiver wire during the season.
32. 46RB Ben Tate (31-99) 97.5 – 4-5rnd, proj. 130-519rush 4td, 22-169rec 1td
49RB Steve Slaton (53-116) 92.2 – 8-9rnd, 131-437rush 3td, 44-417rec 4td - 6fum
48RB Arian Foster (66-50) 86.3 – 16-17rnd, 54-257rush 3td, 8-93rec
HOUSTON - There is a lot of speculation about what’s going to happen in Houston this year. Steve Slaton could make a comeback, Ben Tate could take over as a rookie lead back, Arian Foster could parlay his super strong finish as starter last season into a featured role, or we’re going to have a Denver Broncos ala Shanahan committee approach. It’s probably the latter. Slaton had surgery to fuse together bones in his neck and spine. His status, availability, and effectiveness as training camp approaches remain a bit of a question mark. Ben Tate started OTAs strong, but then strained his hamstring. Foster was impressing while running with the first team in OTAs. This is an open competition at this point, folks. And incidentally, the fantasy playoff schedule doesn’t do this RB group any favors: (BAL, @TEN, @DEN).
Many times we are faced with injury concerns during the fantasy season. Getting a leg up on who the backups are now and whether or not they're a part of the team's plan to be utilized when starters go down can be critical to your success.
By backing up your RB studs with value picks at the end of your draft (ie Last year, Laurence Maroney and Cadillac Williams could've been had for a 16th round pick or later), you can find yourself vying for a championship. Look for opportunity for the backup player to turn starter and then look at ability to run the football and be successful in the NFL on and off the field - and oh yes, can he block? If he can't, then his opportunity to turn starter will never blossom into what you want it to be. Find all three in a player, you have your sleeper to take late in the draft.
RBs – 32 Teams Rankings - Thursday, July 1, 2010
What the numbers mean: "32" Rank- 2010 Projected Position Rank - Player Name - (2009 rank-total fantasy pts) - 2010 Projected Total Fantasy Points - ADP avg. draft position by round - 2009 stats rush, rec
ALL RANKINGS ARE BASED ON A 12 TEAM REDRAFT LEAGUE, STANDARD SCORING FORMAT
1. 1RB Chris Johnson (1-342) 301.8 – 1st rnd – 358-2006rsh 14td, 50-503rec 2td
TENNESSEE – Chris Johnson was a beast last year, and if he was on your team you were probably vying for a championship. He finished with twelve 100+ yard games and became the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. He was also the leading receiver for the Titans, as he caught 50 balls for 503 yds – that’s over 2500 yards of offense and over 400 touches, folks. Out of the last eight RBs to have 350+ carries in a season, only two of them had similar seasons the following year, Adrian Peterson in 2009 and Tiki Barber in 2006. Now, CJ’s holding out for a new deal & asking for 30-40 million in guaranteed money. I don’t see Tennessee giving into this expectation, but I do see a fair deal being worked out and he’s back for 2 weeks in the preseason. Chris has a new RB coach (Kennedy Pola) and they’ve yet to have a day of practice together. Johnson will cost you a number one or two overall pick, unless he sustains an injury of some type in camp or the preseason. As far as backups go, gone are LenDale White and Chris Henry. However, Javon Ringer will compete with rookies LeGarrette Blount (yeah, the guy who punched Boise State defensive end Byron Hout in the face after Hout touched Blount on the shoulder.) and Stefon Johnson (practice squad) for the backup job. If Chris Johnson were to miss time, Ringer and Blount would split the load, I would think, with Blount as more of the between the tackles, goal line back. The fantasy playoffs look decent for the Titans: IND, HOU, @KC – none of those run defenses scare me.
2. 2RB Adrian Peterson (2-227)297.9 – 1st rnd – 315-1389rsh 18td, 43-436rec – 6fum
53RB Toby Gerhart (proj -83) 79 - 14th rnd – 95-375rush 5td, 22-154rec
MINNESOTA – If you have a top pick in your draft, ADP will be one of the top 2 or 3 players taken and he should be. He doubled his reception totals last season, making Chester Taylor expendable, he’s the clear starter and he’s finished as a top five fantasy back the past two seasons. His fumbling problem is a concern, but his TD totals more than make up for that.
Toby Gerhart will be used like Chester Taylor was, but has better abilities running the football –the guy just blows people up. His draft stock could rise in the preseason, if he’s able to bring his physical running style to the next level. Too bad he’s in a clear backup role, I was excited about him going to a team where he could compete for a starting job. Albert Young is the other backup and is very good, but doesn’t have the skills of Gerhart. Both backups would have value should Adrian Peterson go down with injury, with Gerhart as a handcuff and Young off the waiver wire.
3. 3RB Maurice Jones-Drew (3-270) 297.8 – 1st rnd – 312-1391rush 15tds, 53-374rec 1td
JACKSONVILLE – MJD is a true RB1. In every game last season, Jones-Drew scored a touchdown, had five receptions, or rushed for at least 60 yards. It's reasons like these that make MJD a top-three pick in every fantasy league this year. Now that he’s proved he can handle double the workload that he’s had prior to last year – can he do it again? Yes, would be a smart bet. If he gets injured, there are guys there who can do some things: Rashad Jennings is a bigger back, did a nice job last year averaging over 5 yds/carry with his 39 touches and has NFL pedigree. He’s the main backup, although the Jaguars drafted Deji Karim (**deep sleeper**) from Southern Illinois as a third down back/kick returner, and has a similar skill set to Jones-Drew, though not as dynamic. So, there could be competition in camp for the backup role.
4. 4RB Ray Rice (4-245) 287.8 1rnd – 254-1339rush 7td, 78-702rec 1td
47RB Willis McGahee (25-144) 114.9 10-11rnd - 109-544rush 12td, 15-85rec 2td
BALTIMORE – A favorable fantasy playoff schedule (@HOU, NO, @CLE) and the Ravens history of running the football has me very high on Rice and Willis McGahee, who has one year left on his deal. Yes, he vultured TDs from Rice last season (will that happen again?) and Ray may get less touches in the passing game with better WR options but Cam Cameron likes to keep the backs involved in his offenses, there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff. Jalen Parmele is another back to watch, a special teamer and former Miami Dolphin under Cam Cameron.
5. 5RB Frank Gore (6-226) 248.3 1rnd – 229-1120rsh 10td, 52-406rec 3td
SAN FRANCISCO – Frank Gore is the main man here and should be again. He’s never had 10tds in a season before last year, and he did add 10 catches to his reception totals from the year before. He’s had injury troubles every year he’s been in the league, and that may scare most owners off given that he’s a high to mid-first round pick, going as early as #5 in drafts. He’s the clear #1 back, though, without a question he’ll get his touches. Glen Coffee is the back up, but when given the opportunity last season, he averaged 2.7 YPC. That’s just not going to cut it in the NFL. So, the Niners have Miss St rookie **Anthony Dixon** (handcuff sleeper) fall into their laps in the 6th round because of off the field issues. Dixon has a DUI against his name when in July 2009 an intoxicated Dixon and two empty champagne bottles were found in his car. He showed up out of shape several times in college and there are concerns about whether he is fast enough to succeed at this level. That being said, he has talent, is a good dynasty prospect as a future replacement for Gore down the line when Gore starts wearing down and those in redraft leagues will need to consider Dixon if he overtakes Coffee for the #2 RB position in training camp.
6. 6RB Michael Turner (22-146) 204.3 2 rnd – 178-871rush 10td, 5-35rec
62RB Jason Snelling (38-114) 71.8 16-17rnd – 142-613rush 4td, 30-259rec
ATLANTA – Turner followed up his #2RB season of 2008 with a #22 finish in 2009 with an ankle injury marring the latter part of his season- he was pronounced completely healthy this past March, but the team wants to “monitor” his touches so he can play all season. I like his fantasy playoff schedule (@CAR, @SEA, NO) but he doesn’t catch many balls, which lowers his value in PPR leagues. A sore hip flexor killed Jerious Norwood’s 2009, but he wasn’t effective before the injury. The team signed him to a RFA one year tender, but Snelling’s stint as a backup last season could put Norwood on the bubble – stay tuned. Jason Snelling did a good job and even caught 30 balls – handcuff him to Turner in your draft. Another back to watch is undrafted FA rookie Dmitri Nance out of Arizona State.
7. 7RB Steven Jackson (10-193) 246.5 1-2rnd – 325-1424rush 4td, 50-314rec
ST LOUIS - In 2006 - the last time Jackson played for a decent team - he had 2,334 yards from scrimmage, the sixth most in NFL history. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't played for a good team since. Everyone knows that he’s the best player on the team, so he has a target on his back. Yes, the same back he had surgery to repair a herniated disk. He says he’s recovered from the surgery and expects big things this season. What does the rest of the team look like is my question? He can’t be an elite RB scoring only 4TDs on 375 touches. His value is that there is no one else on the roster that can challenge him for carries unless he’s injured. They drafted Chris Ogbonnaya last year, and they’re hoping he can stay healthy and be a change of pace back to Jackson. Ken Darby is the guy who would get carries if Jackson goes down with injury. He’s faster than Ogbonnaya and would be worth starting if given the opportunity –though, not as good as Steven Jackson. The Rams have @NO, KC, SF for the fantasy playoffs, which doesn’t look good for St. Louis – they’re not expected to do well this year.
8. 8RB DeAngelo Williams (14-174) 207.3 1-2rnd – 216-1117rush 7td, 29-252rec
11RB Jonathan Stewart (11-188) 193.3 1-2rnd – 221-1133rush 10td, 18-139rec 1td
CAROLINA – Both Williams and Stewart can be top 15 fantasy backs as the Panthers ran it 525 times last season (2nd most in the NFL). DeAngelo is the better PPR back (#8 in RB rec in 2009). He missed 3 games with ankle trouble but got that cleaned up and will be ready for camp. Stewart had offseason surgery to repair a bone spur that was affecting his Achilles tendon and ankle all last season. He finished as the 11th best RB when injured. What can he do when healthy this year? Draft him and find out. Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson are the backups, more special teams guys, but Sutton would be the guy if one of the big 2 goes down.
9. 9RB Rashard Mendenhall (13-178) 220 – 1rnd -242-1108rush 7td, 25-261rec 1td, 3fum
PITTSBURGH – Everyone is expecting the Steelers to be a run first football team this year, with Roethlisberger missing at least the first 4 weeks. This may be true. There is news of using a FB as a lead blocker in Steeler land, and the coaches’ expectations made public that they expect more from Mendenhall – welcome back, Steeler Football. There seems to be an “open competition” between Mewelde Moore and Ga Tech rookie **Jonathan Dwyer** (sleeper alert) for the backup job, although I believe that Dwyer will become the goal line back and Moore keeps his job for this year. Dwyer reminds me a little of Michael Turner, the way he runs people over is a concern for injuries, though. He’s worth picking up late in your drafts as a guy to stash away. Moore is either your handcuff or a waiver wire pick, depending on the health of Mendenhall. The Steelers are home for the fantasy playoffs: CIN, NYJ, CAR. Keep an eye on who they get to replace Colon on the O-line - that's a big ? for this running game today.
10. 10RB Ryan Grant (8-208) 206.7 – 1-2rnd – 282-1253rush 11td, 25-197rec
GREEN BAY – Ryan Grant could be the 5th back taken off the board and possibly be worth it. As teams look to stop the Packers passing attack, the O-Line did improve as the year went on, Ryan Grant could be the guy to move up into the top 10 RBs. I don’t think he repeats the slow start he had last season. Brandon Jackson is the backup, and he is a serviceable replacement should injury befall Grant. The Packers have Kregg Lumpkin and are also very high on rookie James Starks (**deep sleeper**), who could compete with Jackson for the backup job. He has an injured hamstring, but should be ready for training camp.
11. 12RB Ryan Mathews (proj 17-190) 191.7 – 3-4rnd -
39RB Darren Sproles (35-123) 147.6 – 8-9rnd – 93-343rus 3td, 45-497rec 4td
SAN DIEGO – Ryan Mathews was the leading rusher in the NCAA last season (Shonn Greene was the year before, btw), and he brings his skill set to SD to replace Tomlinson. He should be one of the first two rookie RBs taken simply because of the opportunity he has in front of him in an excellent offense to succeed and score TDs. He’s good at everything, but nothing stands out and WOWs you as a special skill that he has – he’s master of being good at everything. He will get every opportunity to succeed and if healthy should rush for at least 1000 yards and double digit TDs in this offense. Sproles does have speed that wows you and if he’s going well, the coaches won’t feel compelled to take him out of the game because the other back is a future Hall of Famer. He returns punts and is on the kickoff team as well. If you get points for special teams play, he is more valuable. Chargers have KC, SF, @CIN for the fantasy playoffs, which isn’t bad – Mathews has a high ceiling and I like the value of Sproles this year, as his touches could go up. We need to look at that O-line, though. Jacob Hester is a backup to know on this team – he’s been used sparingly and has hung around on Special Teams. If something goes wrong with Mathews, you’ll learn his name when someone else is picking him up off the waiver wire. Two other guys are rookie Shawnbrey McNeal and Marcus Mason - aka the future Sproles replacement and the former Redskin backup RB.
12. 13RB Chris Wells (30-131) 208.2 2-3 rnd – 176-793rush 8td, 12-123rec
45RB Tim Hightower(26-141) 142.4 8-9 round – 143-598rush 7td, 63-428rec
ARIZONA – Retirement of Kurt Warner and signing of Alan Faneca has everyone believing that they will lean on the run more in Arizona. Both lead backs have good per carry avg. (4.2 for Hightower and 4.5 for Wells). Wells finished strong last season and has injury history, but Hightower will continue to catch screens and is a great RB4 later in your draft. Jason Wright and LeRod Stephens-Howling are the backups, with Howling more of a special teams guy, although they are interested in giving him a look on 3rd downs.
13. 14RB Pierre Thomas (20-155) 207.5 – 3-4rnd,147-793rush 6td, 39-302rec 2td
29RB Reggie Bush (54-116) 185.4 – 5-7rnd, 70-390rush 5td, 47-335rec 3td
NEW ORLEANS – Thomas does a lot with a little. He played in 14 games last year, started only 6 of them, yet ran for almost 800 yds, with a 5.4 YPC avg., caught 39 balls for over 300 yds and scored 8 times. He signed his FA tender offer but wants a long-term deal. They may sign him to a fair deal, as he is valuable and kept Mendenhall on the bench when in college. He’s never played a full season and is in a clear 3 headed RB situation, with Reggie Bush and 2nd year guy **Lynell Hamilton**, who will get his shot to replace Mike Bell. He did a fair job in the playoffs in that role, scoring vs. the Cardinals. He has value as a goal line back and injury replacement for Thomas &/or Reggie Bush. Reggie Bush finished last season just behind Steve Slaton as a RB54 – he’s better in a PPR format, going as early as the end of the 5th round. I’d also count on Saints RBs in the middle of the season rather than at the beginning/end based on the schedule.
14. 15RB Cedric Benson (15-172) 194.7 – 2rnd – 301-1251rush 6td, 17-111rec
CINCINNATI – Few RB situations exist in the NFL where there is one back to shoulder the load, but Cincy has one of them. Benson is your starter, and you know this going in. He’s also a guy who couldn’t start his boat without blowing into a breathalyzer, he’s never played a 16 game season, but he’s clearly cleaned up his life with his success last season and strong playoff showing. Now, there are assault charges pending over an incident in TX. Let's see how the facts shake out. Philip says that Benson is a guy who can't handle success. I say innocent until proven guilty. Bernard Scott is the change of pace back, but there are rumblings about getting a veteran backup for Benson (ala Larry Johnson last year)- he came off the practice field with a foot injury this past week. LenDale White is a rumor, Marshawn Lynch could be a possibility here, but the guys who will get first crack at the true back up job in camp will be **Cedric Peerman** and Walter Mendenhall (CUT 6/20). I like Peerman as a **deep sleeper guy and have since last season when drafted by the Ravens.
15. 16RB Shonn Greene (41-60) 191.9 – 2-3rnd, 109-541rush 2td, 0rec, 3fum
38RB LaDainian Tomlinson (19-156)140.2 – 7-8rnd, 223-730rush 12td, 20-154rec, 2fum
NEW YORK JETS – Shonn Greene has parlayed his strong work in the playoffs into the starting RB job for the Jets. He’s completely recovered from the torn rib cartilage suffered in the second half of the AFC Championship game, and should be a weekly contributor with that massive O-line blocking for him. Tomlinson may see some goal line carries as well as a 3rd down role on obvious passing downs. There is talk that they’re going to use these guys in tandem and ride the hot hand. Let’s see what Tomlinson has in the preseason (a first for him). His yards per carry have dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 to last year's bottoming out at 3.3. He has also seen his receiving yardage drop progressively over that since 2007, and last year's 20 receptions for 154 yards were easily the worst of his career (his previous career lows were 51 and 357). 2009 was also the first time Tomlinson failed to crack the league's top ten fantasy running backs. Rookie Joe McKnight is the third back, drafted out of USC, to replace Leon Washington who was traded to Seattle. He averaged over 6 YPC in college – let’s watch him and see if his game translates to the NFL.
16. 17RB Knowshon Moreno (34-161) 205.1 – 3-4rnd, 247-947rush 7td, 28-213rec 2td 4fum
52RB Correll Buckhalter (42-90) 118.4 – 14-15rnd, 140/642rush 1td, 31/240rec 2fum
DENVER – The Broncos want to run more of a power running game, which begs the question if Knowshon Moreno can handle the load. No runs over 18 yds, no 100 yd games, only 3.8 yds/rush compared to Buckhalter’s 5.3 yd. avg. makes Correll Buckhalter a better value play because you don’t have to spend a 3rd or 4th rounder on him. Still, Moreno will get a majority of the touches this season & should be a decent RB2 on fantasy squads. His reception totals may rise with Brandon Marshall gone as well, which is something to consider in PPR leagues. A decent fantasy playoff schedule is a plus (@ARI, @OAK, HOU) – let’s see how Knowshon looks in preseason games and if he’s more explosive than a 31 year old veteran with a history of knee trouble. JJ Arrington is back in the fold, and says he’s 80-85% healthy. Rumors of Brian Westbrook are being squelched with Arrington’s return…stay tuned. Lance Ball and NC State rookie **Toney Baker** (deep sleeper) are backups looking to make the roster on special teams.
17. 18RB Jamaal Charles (12-185) 191.7 – 3-4rnd – 190-1120rush 7td, 40-297rec 1td
42RB Thomas Jones (5-229) 95.4 - 8-9rnd – 332-1402rush 14td, 10-58rec
KANSAS CITY –Jamaal Charles is the first player in NFL history to have over 1,100 yards rushing on less than 200 carries. He didn’t take over the full-time load until week ten and finished as the #12 RB. He’s exciting to watch, regularly beats defenders to the edge with his speed, and was primed to be a breakout RB1 this season despite a shoulder injury he is rehabbing…then KC signed Thomas Jones. We have to temper our enthusiasm now, as Jones likely becomes the goal line back at LEAST. It also knocks Jones down as a fantasy RB because he doesn’t get to run behind the Jets O-line. You have to look at these players, however, because they have a decent fantasy playoff schedule (@SD, @STL, TEN). The team cut Kolby Smith last week, and Jackie Battle, Javarris Williams, and Kestahn Moore may be fighting for one roster spot between them, given that Dexter McCluster will be given touches out of the backfield as well.
18. 19RB Joseph Addai (9-197) 180.1 – 4rnd - 219-828rush 10td, 51-336rec 3td
40RB Donald Brown (58-62) 118.7 – 7-8rnd - 78-281rush 3td, 11-169rec
INDIANAPOLIS – Most of the value of the Indy RB group comes from scoring TDs at the goal line after the passing game gets into the red zone. Addai is one of those quiet producers at the position, a steady Eddie. He’s also in a contract year. This could mean that the coaching staff limits his touches so they can see if Donald Brown is the future or they could use Addai as usual and he gets to showcase what he can do if Indy doesn’t re-sign him in the offseason. Brown was unimpressive as a rookie, with only 3.8 yds/carry, playing 11 games due to knee injury, and his highest rushing total was 58 yards (45 of them came on one play). If he shows improvement, he could be a steal. Let’s look at him in the preseason. Mike Hart and Devin Moore round out depth at the position.
19. 20RB Felix Jones (40-93) 185.7 – 2-3rnd – 116-685rush 3td, 19-119rec
31RB Marion Barber (12-153) 96.8 - 3-4rnd – 214-932rush 7td, 26-221
53RB Tashard Choice (52-67) 78 - 11-12rnd - 64-349rush 3td, 15-132rec
DALLAS – Jerry Jones is a Razorback. He handpicked Felix Jones in the 2008 draft, and Jerry wants Felix to emerge even though Marion Barber has outperformed him in every facet of the game. Barber was slowed by quadriceps injuries last season, affecting his ability to perform. Jones has had durability issues as well (strained PCL), but he finished strong last year and played very well in the playoffs. Tashard Choice may be the value pick here, though. You can get him late in the draft, he’ll start a couple of weeks for you when the regulars are injured, worth the risk. Fantasy playoff schedule is middling (PHI, WASH, @ARI). The decision to take Felix Jones is risky given where you’ll need to take him, the fact that he had over 10 carries only 4x last season and his injury history.
20. 21RB Jahvid Best (162) 176.7 – 4-5rnd - proj. 200-900rush 6td, 43-300rec 1td
DETROIT – The first or second rookie RB off the board should be Jahvid Best, given the opportunity in front of him to start right away without much resistance. The two concerns about him are his size (5’10” – 199 lbs) and his concussion history. If you saw how his season ended at Cal last year, and watched his eyes roll up into his head, you’ll know why there are concerns – youtube it. He has all the tools of Ray Rice or a Brian Westbrook, however, and is the same size as Rice was when he was a rookie. Kevin Smith will probably be on the PUP list to start the year, as he blew out his knee last season and had a December operation to repair it. If you have space on your roster, you can draft him late as a RB3. For the backup job, Maurice Morris will battle last year’s rookie RB Aaron Brown (**sleeper**), who did well on special teams and carried the ball well when called upon. MoMo may be a camp casualty given his lackluster performance as a starter last season. DeDe Dorsey (via Indy & Cincy) will hold a roster spot until Kevin Smith returns.
21. 22RB LeSean McCoy (52-117) 177.7- 3-4rnd -155-637rush 4td, 40-308rec
PHILADELPHIA – I can see this going two ways: 1- McCoy shows the elusiveness promised when he came out of Pitt last year & he looks like Tony Dorsett, rushes and catches 1500 yards & scores 10 TDs in a high powered offense. 2- Committee Approach – Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver eat into LeSean’s carries and receptions while running a true West Coast offense this season. There are plenty of touches to go around with Bell as the goal line back, Weaver as Tom Rathman and McCoy as Roger Craig circa 1984 (1100 - 1300 yards). I vote for #2 – McCoy never looked the part or took the reins and finished as the 37th fantasy RB last year. They say he’s done a 180 this season& that would be welcome to Eagles fans. The fantasy playoffs don’t do the Eagles ANY favors: @DAL, @NYG, MINN …ouch. Tough to like the Eagles in crunch time this year, although there are players out there who will tell you that big players step up in big games. Is McCoy that big player? Eldra Buckley is the third back, but may give way to rookie Charles Scott, who is listed as fullback, but may line up at tailback to justify the guy being on the roster. It’s further evidence of how they’d like to use Weaver and play matchups in the running game like the Saints do. They won the Super Bowl, by the way, and it’s a copycat league.
22. 23RB Ronnie Brown (32-125) 171.6 – 3-4rnd - 147-648rush 8td, 14-98rec
24RB Ricky Williams(7-212) 161.8 – 5-6rnd - 241-1121rush 11td, 35-264rec 2td
MIAMI – Ronnie Brown had a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot end his season in Week 10, still he was the 32nd RB and was productive before the injury. He’s in the last year of his contract, has not signed his tender offer because he wants a new long-term deal, was rumored in several trades in the offseason, and was charged with driving under the influence of alcohol and improper lane use in Atlanta. Still, he will be the Dolphins starting RB and will share carries with Ricky Williams. He had a screw removed from his foot last week and is holding off on running for 2 weeks while the foot heals. Ricky turned back the clock last year, rushed for over 1000 yds and finished as the #7 RB. Clearly his difficulties and motivations about football have been resolved and even after 10 years in the NFL, there is enough in the tank for Dolphin fans to yell RUN RICKY RUN on Sunday afternoons. Lex Hilliard and Patrick Cobbs are the backups to keep an eye on. Hilliard had some action as the #2 last season and Cobbs is back from ACL surgery rather quickly. He’s Mr. Versatility for the Fish, in the backfield, in the wildcat, on special teams, and is an excellent locker room guy. Other guys in camp will be Kory Sheets, who was brought in last year when Cobbs went down. He may not make the roster.
23. 26RB Ahmad Bradshaw (29-135) 164.9 – 6-7rnd,163-778rush 7td, 21-207rec
25RB Brandon Jacobs (29-135) 140.5 – 5-6rnd, 224-835rush 5td, 18-184rec 1td
NEW YORK GIANTS – Jacobs was a disappointment last year. After Derrick Ward left, he was supposed to be the battering ram back, physical and scoring TDs – he did not reach 900 yards and only scored 5 times. Now, Jacobs played on a bad knee all year long, an injury many believe would have sidelined other backs. He’ll be ready for training camp. On the other hand, Ahmad Bradshaw looked flat out better than him last year. Then after the Oakland game, Bradshaw had to wear protective boots to heal his ankles and feet on a weekly basis. Bradshaw had screws put in both feet to stabilize fractured bones and a procedure on his ankle, and should be ready for training camp. He’s in a contract year, and I expect him to have a slightly better year than Jacobs because of his involvement in the passing game. The backups Danny Ware and Andre Brown (Achilles injury) haven’t shown much to inspire confidence if Bradshaw & Jacobs go down this season. Gartrell Johnson (2nd year – Univ. of Miami) looked good for San Diego last preseason, and could be a guy to watch this year.
24. 27RB Matt Forte (18-159) 139.1 – 4-6rnd - 258-949rush 4td, 57-471rec
34RB Chester Taylor (43-83) 150.2 – 10rnd – 93-332rush 1td, 44-389rec 1td
CHICAGO – Forte was a big disappointment last season due to injuries (hamstring & knee) and poor blocking by the offensive line. He’s been training in Florida and has pronounced himself completely healthy, faster and stronger. Mike Martz is talking him up as the Marshall Faulk focal point of the offense as he’s an excellent receiver. If he gets hurt or slips up in any way, Chester Taylor will be the man here. They targeted him in free agency for a reason. I don’t like the O-line here and the fantasy playoff schedule is tough (NE, @MIN, NYJ). I like the upside possibilities just where will that put you at the end – can these guys help you win your league? Kahlil Bell showed some flashes last season but not enough to warrant a regular spot, Garrett Wolfe is a change of pace, Eric Bienemy or Eric Metcalfe type back.
25. 28RB Cadillac Williams (26-144) 160.5 – 6-8rnd, 209-816rush 4td, 29-219rec 3td
57RB Derrick Ward (49-74) 88.1 – 15 rnd, 115-414rush 1td, 20-150rec 2td
TAMPA BAY – Cadillac Williams played a 16 game season for the first time in his career and will be the unquestioned #1RB on the Bucs. He’s the first player in the NFL to come back from torn patellar tendons in both knees. Derrick Ward was brought in to be a part of a 2-2-1 committee approach with Cadillac and Earnest Graham, and never really got going. He attributed his poor year to his reaction to losing all the time. He’ll have a better year this season, as he’ll spell Cadillac to keep him fresh. Earnest Graham is listed at FB, but would be the #3 RB on this team and would carry the load with Ward should the Caddy break down again. I LOVE the fantasy playoffs for the Bucs: @WASH, DET, SEA.
26. 30RB Fred Jackson (16-170) 144.4 – 6-7rnd - 238-1062rush 2td, 46-371 2td
35RB C.J. Spiller (141) 129.9 – 5-6rnd – proj. 130-600rush 4td, 40-350 2td
BUFFALO – What a messy situation with Marshawn Lynch. Do they trade him or keep him as a 3rd down back, they’re asking for a 4th round pick. Let’s watch this in camp, perhaps a RB goes down with injury and there you have Lynch’s landing spot. Jackson is the starter here, I feel. He’s the better play this year only, then will give over to Spiller as the lead back in the RBBC
27. 32RB Michael Bush (54-82) 153.7 – 8-9rnd,123-589rush 3td, 17-105rec
43RB Darren McFadden (43-59) 117.6 – 104-356rush 1td, 21-245rec, 3fum
OAKLAND – Justin Fargas is gone and someone is going to have to pick up the slack. My money is on Michael Bush, the better rusher between the tackles. 140 – 700 yds translates to 200 – 1000 yds. With a QB that actually shows up to practice ready to work and Fargas out of the picture, I can see 60 more touches for Bush and 40 more targets for DMC. Michael Bennett and Rock Cartwright are the backups and if there are injuries to the lead backs, both have proven to be valuable waiver wire pickups in the past. I don’t love their fantasy playoff schedule, but their overall schedule is interesting.
28. 33RB Justin Forsett (34-124) 167.8 – 7-8rnd, 147-619rush 4td, 41-350rec 1td
51RB Leon Washington (74-44) 88.6 – 10-11rnd, 71-330rush 0td, 15-131rec
63RB Julius Jones (40-113) 72.4 - 17-18rnd, 177-663rush 2td, 35-232rec 2td
SEATTLE – LenDale White was let go and we later find out that he’s facing a 4 game suspension for marijuana use. He’s out of the picture & looking for a job (Bengals?). Justin Forsett was the best RB in Seattle last year, 5.4 Yards Per Carry led the team. 20 of his 114 carries came before his breakout performance in week 10. The numbers say he should be the starter, but concerns about his size (5’8” 194 lbs.) loom as Marshawn Lynch trade rumors persist – stay tuned. Justin is missing mini-camp because of his wedding – congratulations to Mr. and Mrs. Forsett. Julius Jones is being given every opportunity to shine with the new Pete Carroll regime. There is “open competition” at every position is the motto in Seattle, another one is “the best players will play”. So far, the coaching staff likes what they see out of Jones. Leon Washington was looking pretty good last season through the first six games – 71 carries for 330 yds – but then broke his right leg in the Oakland game. He continues to rehab and there have been conflicting reports. 2 weeks ago, he was said to start the season on the PUP list, now there’s hope that he’ll be ready for training camp – they also said that they would take it slow with him. If you project last year’s stats out to 16 games, Leon gains 880 yards – I don’t see it working out like that. There’s also talk that FB Quinton Ganther (DUI - check on his status) becoming the goal line back. That would limit the value of all the other backs on the roster. This situation has committee written all over it. Unless Lynch gets to Seattle, I see Forsett earning the #1 RB in camp, Jones as #2, Washington as the third down back (and if Leon's completely healthy, Jones could be cut).
29. 36RB Clinton Portis (54-64) 143.6 – 7-9rnd – 124-494rush 1td, 9-57rec 1td
50RB Larry Johnson (55-62) 80 – 12-13rnd - 178-562rush 0td, 15-80rec 0td
WASHINGTON – Shanahan’s back and this can be a nightmare for fantasy owners, trying to figure out what Mike’s going to do about his RBs for the season, week-to-week, quarter to quarter, or even series to series. Clinton Portis was drafted by Denver when Shanahan was coach and did well there, but then after a pair of 1500+ seasons, Portis was shipped to Washington. Portis is listed as the #1 RB, but with Larry Johnson who looked decent in his games with Cincinnati last year and will compete for the lead back spot alongside Willie Parker and Ryan Torain. I like their playoff schedule: TB, @DAL, @JAX. This has a committee approach feel to it. I’ll be staying away or picking up one of these players late in my draft looking for value.
30. 37RB Jerome Harrison (14-146) 146.1 – 5-6rnd – 194-862rush 5td, 34-220rec 2td
43RB Montario Hardesty (110) 112 - 8-9rnd – proj. 170-717rush 5td, 14-100rec
CLEVELAND – Jamal Lewis is gone, Jerome Harrison spent most of the season on the bench behind him and then exploded for the best three game stretch ever by a fantasy RB. He’s earned the right to compete (again) for the starting job, wants a new contract, and should be a good receiver out of the backfield as the Browns play from behind a lot. The Browns drafted Montario Hardesty out of Tennessee (pro style offense) and he’s been getting the chance to impress in OTAs and has picked up things nicely. Both of these backs should be RB3s, but Harrison will cost you a higher pick than Hardesty. If one of them gets dinged up, there are others waiting in the wings: Peyton Hillis, Chris Jennings and James Davis. Hillis will stick with the team, Jennings and Davis may be in a battle for a roster spot – Davis impressed last preseason only to be injured – **sleeper alert**.
31. 41RB Laurence Maroney (31-130) 131.1 – 194-757rush 9td, 14-99rec – 4FUM
61RB Kevin Faulk (55-86) 88 – 83-376rush 2td, 36-323rec 1td
NEW ENGLAND – Laurence Maroney was good draft value last year. He was drafted 14th round or later and finished the season in between Beanie Wells and Ronnie Brown. That being said, he's never had 200 carries, 850 rushing yards, double digit touchdowns, or finished higher than #25 fantasy RB in a season. He’s also had a penchant for fumbling at the goal line and often finds a way to get in the coach’s doghouse. Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris (both are in a contract year) are both interesting veteran backups to take a chance on late in your drafts, but neither seems to stay healthy – watch them in camp to see how they perform. The guy for the future in terms of a dynasty prospect is **BenJarvis Green-Ellis**, however there are rumblings about him being on the bubble with his roster space being needed for younger talent – he’s in a contract year & has been on the practice squad before. My bet is that one of the veterans may be on the move. Kevin Faulk is a guy to take the round before you get your kicker in larger roster-sized PPR leagues, as a bye week fill-in, but usually he can be found on the waiver wire during the season.
32. 46RB Ben Tate (31-99) 97.5 – 4-5rnd, proj. 130-519rush 4td, 22-169rec 1td
49RB Steve Slaton (53-116) 92.2 – 8-9rnd, 131-437rush 3td, 44-417rec 4td - 6fum
48RB Arian Foster (66-50) 86.3 – 16-17rnd, 54-257rush 3td, 8-93rec
HOUSTON - There is a lot of speculation about what’s going to happen in Houston this year. Steve Slaton could make a comeback, Ben Tate could take over as a rookie lead back, Arian Foster could parlay his super strong finish as starter last season into a featured role, or we’re going to have a Denver Broncos ala Shanahan committee approach. It’s probably the latter. Slaton had surgery to fuse together bones in his neck and spine. His status, availability, and effectiveness as training camp approaches remain a bit of a question mark. Ben Tate started OTAs strong, but then strained his hamstring. Foster was impressing while running with the first team in OTAs. This is an open competition at this point, folks. And incidentally, the fantasy playoff schedule doesn’t do this RB group any favors: (BAL, @TEN, @DEN).
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