KEY: Pos Rank – Player Name – (2009 Pos Rank – 2009 Fantasy Pts) 2010 Projection – ADP by round
1. WR1 Andre Johnson (1-213) 194.20 – 1st round
WR47 Jacoby Jones (56-81) 88.80 – 14-15th round **value**
WR63 Kevin Walter (63-75) 77.70 – 13th round
HOUSTON – You’re probably going to have to be in the top 7 or 8 picks to get Andre Johnson, and he’s worth it. He’s been durable, a steady producer on a weekly basis averaging 10 targets and 97 receiving yards a game over the past three seasons. The only things that would scare me off are the schedule (fantasy playoffs: BAL, @TEN, @DEN) and injury history of Schaub. But will any of that matter with Andre Johnson catching the ball? Kevin Walter has seen his touches drop the past two seasons, and had 53 receptions for 611 yards and two touchdowns. He was also hampered by injuries last year, and now finds himself in a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE with speedster Jacoby Jones for the starting job opposite Andre Johnson. Jacoby Jones finished the season with only 27 catches but averaged 16.2 yards per reception and scored 6 receiving touchdowns. Andre Davis and David Anderson are the backups, although Davis has filled in admirably before.
2. WR2 Larry Fitzgerald (5-187) 184.20 – 1st round
WR27 Steve Breaston (45-91) 112.50 – 7-8th round
WR67 Early Doucet (103-27) 73.10 – 15-16th round
ARIZONA – You shouldn’t worry about Fitzgerald’s totals with whomever is throwing the football. While his ceiling will be lower, he’ll still be good for 1000 yds and 10 TDs. Anquan Boldin is gone, leaving the door open for Steve Breaston to be the full time #2. I expect him to top 60 catches and approach 900 yds, although I’d approach him with caution. Early Doucet looked very good with Leinart in the playoffs last year and had two strong games – he’s the #3 but could push for #2 in camp. If Breaston were to go down with injury, then rookie Andre Roberts would be a hot waiver wire pick up. Watch him in the preseason to see if he’s deep sleeper material – he’ll be the #4 WR and KR/PR.
3. WR3 Randy Moss (2-204) 176.80 – 1st round
WR51 Wes Welker (12-161) 86.10 – 6-7th round
WR75 Brandon Tate (150-1) 68.10 - 20th round
WR88 Julian Edelman (90-41) 51.80 – 21st round/waiver
NEW ENGLAND – Watch if Torry Holt (66-70) has anything left – the Pats swung and missed with Joey Galloway last season, maybe Torry’s got something left and he and Randy Moss can cook it up ala Jerry Rice & Tim Brown. There are always some rumblings with Randy Moss about some issue or another (this year he’s in the last year of his contract and he wants a new one), but he’s up there with the greatest to ever play. He’s a top five fantasy WR 8 times in his career and had his 6th 200+ point fantasy season (joining Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens in that elite group). He’s never missed a game since joining the Patriots. There are conflicting reports about Wes Welker – some say he will be ready for training camp and others say that he’ll start the year on the PUP list. I think that he won’t be ready or effective if he comes out early in the season. He’ll still cost you a 6th or 7th rounder, but that’s a high price to pay for a guy who won’t factor in until your fantasy playoffs…maybe. Still, though, it’s hard to pass him up in a draft because he’s had 3 consecutive years catching 110 or more passes. Not this year - he tore his ACL and MCL in the Week 17 game at Houston and is not expected to be fully back until mid- to late-November. I’d avoid or wait for him to drop to you in the 12th round when everyone else is scared away. Julian Edelman is who will probably wind up doing the job replacing Welker. He even looked a lot like Welker last season. It may be that the Pats will employ more of a combination of **Brandon Tate** (deep sleeper) and Edelman. Tate was hurt last season and played very little, but they drafted him because he is explosive, when healthy. It’s a second to last round flyer on a guy who may blow up in the preseason and become over valued, but I’d pay attention to him and see if he earns a role in the offense. It’s like they’re looking for the new and improved Troy Brown, the way I remember the media talking up this pick in the 2009 draft.
4. WR4 Miles Austin (3-198) 171.60 – 1st round
WR36 Dez Bryant 104.10 – 6-8th round – better in PPR format
WR77 Roy Williams (38-99) 63.60 – 15-16th round
DALLAS – Miles Austin is a stud WR, he’s Romo’s main guy, and should finish in the top 5 WRs this season. A good, late first or second round pick will land you a solid guy on your roster. Roy Williams is the #2 WR on the team, but my money is on rookie Dez Bryant making a charge and becoming the better WR, regardless of designation on the team. It’s a high price to pay to get him in the 6th or 7th round, but would be worth it in a dynasty or keeper league. I’d value him higher than Hakeem Nicks last season and I would expect that he’ll be the first rookie WR off the board in most drafts – 100 fantasy pts this year. Patrick Crayton (43-92) is the slot guy, but he was asking to be released so he can be with a team with greater opportunity. The Cowboys won’t release him, making him an insurance policy with the team, should something happen to the starting 3. Truthfully, I like him better than Roy Williams, but his attitude to the situation makes me shy away from him. The coaches may limit his opportunities – let’s see how this plays out. Sam Hurd and Kevin Ogletree round out the group, with Ogletree being more the dynasty prospect. 11 FORMATION: 1 TE 1 RB 3 WR – Cowboys ran 36% of their offensive plays out of this formation. If you line up Witten, Felix Jones, Austin, Dez Bryant, and Crayton out of this formation – it creates mismatches for the opposing defenses. They will be running more plays out of this formation in 2010 – bet on it.
5. WR5 Sidney Rice (8-177) 163.20 – 1st round
WR17 Percy Harvin (24-128) 136.60 – 3rd round
WR62 Bernard Berrian (50-85) 78.40 – 15-16th round
MINNESOTA – 80 catches, 1100 yards seem pretty likely for Sidney Rice this year if Favre comes back, and we all believe that he is, don’t we? Rice went from the #90 fantasy WR to #8 last season – was he a one hit wonder? I don’t think so. Bernard Berrian is listed as the 2nd WR on the roster, but his touches declined with Percy Harvin in the mix. He’s now a “possession receiver”, and unless he benefits from an injury to one of the starting two, he’s going to be starving for targets. So much was expected of him last season in fantasy, but he was dinged up in the beginning of the year, never really seemed to gain the trust of Favre, and so it was Rice who had the big year. Percy Harvin has become the playmaker and deep pass catcher for the Vikings. A strong rookie season (129 fantasy pts – 135 rush, 790rec, 6tds) and his play on special teams leads us to believe he can do it again. He’s put on 10 lbs of muscle in the offseason, which is good. The thing that can be maddening are these recurring migraine headaches that seem to plague him and his fantasy owners. Other guys on the roster: Greg Lewis is the 4th WR, Jaymar Johnson (will see time if starters are injured) and Joe Webb (ex-QB they’re bringing along slowly).
6. WR6 Greg Jennings (20-140) 162.70 – 2-3rd round
WR34 Donald Driver (19-141) 106.20 – 5-6th round
WR71 James Jones (64-74) 68.90 – 17th round
WR95 Jordy Nelson (89-42) 42.70 - waiver
GREEN BAY – Greg Jennings had his TD totals drop for the 3rd consecutive year, from 12 in 2007, 8 in 2008 to only 4 in 2009. However, I’m going to believe the reports that I’m reading that the O-line is improved, that Aaron Rodgers can come close to his totals last season, and I predict that Jennings’ total TDs come back to the norm around 8 and he goes for 1200 yards, which would make him a nice WR1 on your roster. Last year started with concussion issues for him, then a litany of injuries (wrist, hip, knee, ankle) throughout the year held him back. Rodgers does a good job of spreading things around, which also limited him last year. Donald Driver is entering his 12th season and he’s undervalued in drafts every year, although this year may be the one that breaks his streak of six 1000-yard seasons that he and his fantasy owners have enjoyed. He had offseason surgery on both knees, but he’s healthy and says he feels better than he has in years. He’s missed one game over the past six seasons, btw. If he falls to the 7-8th round to you and you are looking for a solid WR3 to score you 100 fantasy pts or more, grab him. The bigger reason for Driver’s streak coming to an end is the emergence of James Jones (**sleeper**) and TE Jermichael Finley as big play options for the Packers. Jones has set a goal for 1000 yds and double digit TDs for the season. And while those goals are lofty for a guy who caught only 30 balls last year, he did score 4 TDs and looked like he had a nice rapport with Rodgers. We’ll see if the coaching staff gives him the targets – I’ll say 500 yds and 6 TDs are possible for him. 3rd year WR Jordy Nelson (**deep sleeper**) is the 4th WR and plays the slot for the Pack and works on special teams – he’s got potential, but he’ll only be a major factor if there’s an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. This could be a possibility with Jones’ injury history in his young career and the age/offseason surgery for Driver.
7. WR7 Roddy White (7-181) 162.20 – 2nd round
WR60 Michael Jenkins (67-69) 79.10 – 21-22nd round/waiver
WR100 Harry Douglas (inj) 39.80 - waiver
ATLANTA – Roddy White may be one of the safest plays you could make in the second round, if you look at his opportunity, talent, and supporting cast. He’s clearly the best WR on the roster, and no other WR is challenging him for targets (see Tony Gonzalez for that). He actually increased his targets by 20 last year finishing as the #7WR in fantasy. He’s also played all 16 games the past two seasons. Michael Jenkins catches 50 passes per season and shows up in some games. You got me if you can figure out when those games would be – but there will be a few. The guy who is interesting as a sleeper is Harry Douglas, who’s the ideal slot receiver – small tough and fast. Keep an eye on him in this preseason. IF healthy, he could be that extra weapon they need to make the offense more explosive and harder to defend. Last preseason he was lost for the year with a torn ACL, so let’s see if he’s mentally and physically ready to make catches in traffic again. Brian Finneran is still with the team as well.
8. WR8 Reggie Wayne (6-184) 162.20 – 1-2nd round
WR53 Pierre Garcon (36-101) 84.20 - 5-7th round
WR55 Anthony Gonzalez (inj) 82.50 – 13-15th round
WR66 Austin Collie (30-109) 73.20 – 10-11th round
INDIANAPOLIS – The guy who was on everyone’s sleeper list last year was WR Anthony Gonzalez. You could’ve gotten him in the 6th or 7th round and he was going to produce for your team every week in a steady way. Then in Game 1 vs. Jacksonville, his season ended with a serious knee injury. No fantasy points, no catches, nada, zip zilch! It’s just bad luck when something like that happens. On the bright side of the spectrum for the Colts: Reggie Wayne has been a steady Eddie of excellence. Hasn’t missed a game in 8 seasons, and hasn’t finished out of the top 25 WRs since 2002, with 4 top 10 finishes the last 6 years. I expect him to approach 130-140 targets with 80-90 catches for 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs. There will be a TRAINING CAMP COMPETION between Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon for the #2 position. Garcon really stepped up in Gonzalez’ absence last year, and I expect he will beat out Gonzalez. Austin Collie will work out of the slot, but will also split wide as the Colts play matchups vs. the defense. Two more players to watch in training camp because Peyton throws the football to everybody: Sam Giguiere and Michigan St. rookie Blair White.
9. WR9 DeSean Jackson (4-187) 161.10 – 2-3rd round
WR24 Jeremy Maclin (37-100) 119.00 – 7-8th round
WR83 Jason Avant (59-78) 54.40 – 19-20th round
PHILADELPHIA – If you feel that he can duplicate his finish as the #4 fantasy WR without McNabb, then DeSean Jackson would be appropriate value at the end of the 2nd / early 3rd round. He’s due for a monster contract extension and the two sides haven’t come to an agreement yet. He’s had 8 TDs that went for over 50 yards in the first two years of his career. It’s difficult to predict TDs, but he went over 100 yds. in both Kevin Kolb starts. Jeremy Maclin showed good route running skills last year (55 catches for 762 yards and 4 TDs as a rookie) and could top 1000 yds in Philly’s pass happy offense, if he stays healthy. A strong WR2 in the 8th round with good upside, anyone? Buehller? Buehller? Jason Avant is a useful WR3 should one of these guys get banged up. He did well in that role last season, and can produce when called upon, particularly in a PPR league. The Eagles gave him a new 5-year, $18mm contract, to be their main backup. Hank Baskett and rookie Riley Cooper round out the roster. I still hate their fantasy playoff schedule @DAL, @NYG, MINN, though, as much as I like this group of WRs.
10. WR10 Marques Colston (13-157) 159.50 – 2-3rd round
WR33 Robert Meachem (21-132) 106.60 – 7-8th round
WR74 Devery Henderson (40-93) 68.10 – 14-15th round
WR78 Lance Moore (104-27) 59.90 – 20th round
NEW ORLEANS – Three of these guys will be worthy of drafting and will be solid fantasy players for you – which ones? Marques Colston may miss a few games due to an injury here and there, but he’s the most talented WR on the roster and should be good for 1000+ yds. and 8-10 TDs. He’s a guy you can steadily plug into your lineup each week and not worry about him (save for health issues). Devery Henderson is listed as the #2 WR on the team, but he had offseason sports hernia surgery (abdomen). He should be ready for camp, and is tremendous value in the 14-15th round. Robert Meachem finally put it together last season, but then fell apart during the playoffs. He’s been injury prone his entire career as a pro, and is recovering from toe surgery, then missed OTAs, but they say he’ll be ready for training camp. Lance Moore (**deep sleeper**) might as well have been in the witness protection plan last season, mainly due to a hamstring injury and a high ankle sprain. He really fell out of favor as Robert Meachem took his job. However, Moore signed his tender offer a few weeks ago, is healthy, and he’ll be ready to go for training camp. He went from a top 15 WR in 2008 to 104th WR with only 27 fantasy points in 2009. This guy was on everyone’s sleeper list last year. That’s bad. Why do I have the feeling that this year, with Shockey’s health in question and Meachem’s injury history, Moore might be the guy to fill in and put up stats again?
11. WR11 Calvin Johnson (22-131) 157.10 – 1-2nd round
WR56 Nate Burleson (39-95) 82.10 – 11-12th round
DETROIT – It was clear after watching Calvin Johnson drop from the third overall fantasy WR to 21st, something besides a knee injury was bothering him last season. Is it all the losing the Lions have done since he joined the team wearing him down? Consider the fact that with nearly 140 passes thrown to him, Johnson finished the season with only 67 receptions for less than 1,000 yards. Maybe it was all the double teams he saw last year? No matter what the reason, it was clear that the Lions had to get Megatron some help in the offseason. Bryant Johnson (70-60) wasn’t the answer as the 2nd WR – he started all 16 games for the Lions and only had 35 receptions for 417 yards and 3 TDs and only had one game all year with more than 50 receiving yards. These are not good numbers, and Johnson will be the #3 or #4 WR on the team in 2010 with the signing of Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler. Burleson is a possession-type receiver with sure hands, which will be a welcome change for Matt Stafford. He would be a better WR in a PPR format as he’s there to move the chains and set up Megatron and the other WRs for big plays. 700 yards and 5 TDs are not out of the question for Burleson, if healthy. Scheffler was signed from Denver and while listed as a TE, what I’m gathering is that he’ll be used more as a WR and may be the #3 option in the passing game - Stay tuned. This could put the Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt in danger of not making the team – both players had a hard time dropping the football last season.
12. WR12 Chad Ochocinco (14-157) 150.60 – 3-4th round
WR40 Antonio Bryant (51-84) 96.70 – 8-9th round
WR85 Matt Jones (drugs) 53.30 – 20th round
CINCINATTI – Andre Caldwell (71-59)
13. WR13 Steve Smith (18-144) 148.40 – 3-4th round
WR82 Brandon LaFell 55.20 – 22nd round
CAROLINA -
14. WR14 Brandon Marshall (9-175) 145.50 – 2nd round
WR68 Brian Hartline (62-76) 72.20 – 17th round
WR86 Davone Bess (53-82) 52.30 – 13-14th round
MIAMI – The Dolphins have not had a WR with the statistical capabilities of Brandon Marshall since Duper & Clayton, and rightfully, this has Miami fans excited. Off-season hip surgery and his history of off-the-field issues may scare some owners off, but all reports out of Dolphin-land are positive about his attitude and recovery from surgery. A top ten finish with 80 catches, 1000 yards and 10 TDs are not out of the question for him this season. There will be a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE between Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo (76-55) for the #2WR spot. Hartline really came on late last season and is the favorite to win the job – he runs nice routes and had good chemistry with Chad Henne. Bess seems very suited to the slot but could surprise with good stats this year. Camarillo will be there for touches should injury befall one of the others but his overall numbers should go down with Brandon Marshall around. As far as other backups go, the team has hopes for Patrick Turner, a 2nd year guy from USC who has nice size but never seized the opportunity last season. Taurus Johnson out of USF, is an interesting prospect – keep an eye on him in camp as very deep sleeper. He made plays in an offense where the QB was looking to run first and throw second.
15. WR15 Hakeem Nicks (27-115) 139.60 – 4-5th round
WR16 Steve Smith (11-164) 138.70 - 2-3rd round
WR49 Mario Manningham (29-110) 86.50 – 12-13th round
NEW YORK GIANTS – Hakeem Nicks is the sexy pick to break the top ten fantasy WRs this year. He played last season on a broken toe, missed time early in the season, wasn’t the starter until week 14, and still put up 790 yards and six TDs on only 74 targets. He finished as the #27 fantasy WR – many people feel he could be even better this year, IF the Giants don’t revert back to their running ways on offense. The “other” Steve Smith had a breakout season last year, finishing as the #11 fantasy WR. He’s really valuable moving the chains for Big Blue and caught 107 receptions (2nd in the NFL) for over 1200 yards, and earned himself a trip to the Pro Bowl. He should approach those numbers again, but with a few yards and TDs distributed to others – think 140 fantasy points instead of 165. Not too bad for a guy you can probably get late in the 2nd or early 3rd round. Mario Manningham showed flashes last season, both as a starter early and then playing from the slot later in the year. Now, he’ll probably only have real value if Smith or Nicks goes down with injury, but he’s a nice insurance policy who has started some games before. The team is also very high on Ramses Barden (6’6” with a monster wingspan and vertical leap), but maybe he’s just a red zone threat this year and a more viable fantasy option next year. They’d like to see more consistency out of him.
16. WR18 Hines Ward (16-150) 136.00 – 5th round
WR19 Mike Wallace (28-113) 131.40 – 6-7th round
WR84 Antwaan Randle El (82-49) 53.40 – 22nd round
PITTSBURGH – Hines Ward is a ten-year veteran showing no signs of slowing down. There is no reason to not pencil him in for 1000 yds. and 6 TDs in 2010. There have been rumblings about him retiring after the season, and the team drafted two rookie WRs just in case Ward makes the move to broadcasting – we’ll see how this plays out – in the meantime, he’ll cost you a fifth rounder on your fantasy team. Gone is Santonio Holmes to New York, and replacing him as the Steelers #2 WR is second year man Mike Wallace. He’s got the speed to beat the defense, and as a rookie, he really gained the trust of Roethlisberger and finished as the 28th fantasy WR on 78 targets. He’ll be seeing better coverage personnel now that he’s a starter, and the question becomes can he handle his new role or was he a one-hit wonder? This guy is a sexy sleeper pick by many experts out there and may be overvalued. I like him but I’d like to see how he looks early in games this preseason to answer some of the reasons to question his success. Does he have any chemistry with Leftwich? Can the O-line hold long enough for him to get open deep? Are they targeting him less because of the focus on the running game? This last question is an alarming reason (besides Big Ben) to de-value all the Steeler WRs. Antwaan Randle El has been brought back as the slot WR, although they drafted **Emmanuel Sanders** (sleeper – this year’s Mike Wallace??) and Antonio Brown, and either one of them could turn into a fine slot receiver. Arnaz Battle (who has the best website of all NFL players, btw – visit the “battle zone” at arnazbattle.com) was signed, which gives Pittsburgh a quality backup – he’ll play on special teams as well. Limas Sweed has been put on the IR with an Achilles’ injury and will miss the entire 2010 season.
17. WR20 Anquan Boldin (23-129) 131.00 – 3-4th round
WR28 Derrick Mason (27-144) 112.20 – 9-10th round
WR91 Donte Stallworth (susp.) 47.00 – 19-20th round
BALTIMORE – The Ravens traded 2 draft picks for Anquan Boldin, then signed him to a five year deal to lock him up to the team for what may be the rest of his career. He should have similar numbers to his time in Arizona, with 130-140 targets and at least 1000 yards not out of the realm of possibility – a good value late in the third round. Derrick Mason will have value as well, but there are fears that with less targets that he won’t be able to help your team as much. Mark Clayton (69-60), Kelley Washington (79-55), Demetrius Williams, and Utah rookie David Reed who will work on special teams, round out the roster. This is the best group of receivers certainly Joe Flacco has ever had to work with, if not ever, for the Ravens. I like their fantasy playoffs too: @HOU, NO, @CLE
18. WR21 Malcom Floyd (52-83) 129.00 – 4-5th round
WR79 Vincent Jackson (10-171) 57.90 – 6-7th round
WR92 Legedu Naanee (96-36) 75.90 – 13-14th round
WR99 Craig Davis (141-5) 40.10 – waiver wire
SAN DIEGO – Vincent Jackson’s stock is dropping like a rock – he’s suspended the first 3 games because of a second DUI offense, he did not sign his 2.5 million dollar tender offer, wants a new contract, and has threatened to sit out until Week 10 should he not get a new contract. The Chargers and Jackson are far apart right now in terms of expectations and negotiations – this one could get ugly before your draft. VJack’s going in the 5-6th round right now, I’ve bumped him to 6-7th round for dynasty players ONLY. If he’s sitting there in the 9th round or later, take a chance on this working out. Anything higher for a guy making too many poor decisions is too high a price for me. Who benefits from this holdout?? Say hello to Malcom Floyd, Philip Rivers’ new #1 WR and likely sleeper candidate sure to jump up everyone’s draft board. Originally, Floyd would go somewhere in the 9-10th round, but by the time we get into the third week of camp, why do I have the feeling he’ll cost you at least a 4-5th rounder the longer Vincent Jackson holds out? He’s the unquestioned starter at the #2 spot if VJack signs a deal, and if that happens (a big if), then bump him down your list. Legedu Naanee is a name I saw on some deep sleeper lists last year, but now it seems that now is the time to have this guy on your radar. Again, this guy is a 19th round pick if you’re in a league that carries a larger roster, but I’ve bumped him up to the 13-14th round. I really don’t think the Chargers will think twice about moving forward with who is on the field practicing and playing in preseason games. Naanee has excellent size at 6'3" and 230 pounds. He's got terrific hands, good speed, and is absolutely fearless when going over the middle to make the tough catch in traffic. This is the guy who made Chris Chambers expendable last year, and he’ll be starting the first three games AT LEAST in 2010. Veterans Craig Davis, Josh Reed, and rookie Jeremy Williams will be in a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE for the slot receiver position in training camp. I like the rookie there, but Josh Reed could surprise and earn the job.
19. WR22 Michael Crabtree (65-72) 128.00 – 4th round
WR65 Josh Morgan (61-76) 76.30 - 17th round
WR96 Ted Ginn Jr. (77-55) 41.50 – waiver wire
SAN FRANCISCO – Michael Crabtree dropped in most drafts last year due to his holdout, but once he signed, he’s been a model citizen and player for the 49ers. He led all 49ers wide receivers in yardage despite missing the first five games of the season, and caught at least 3 balls in every game he played. Barring unforeseen injury to him or QB Alex Smith, he should put up good numbers as a WR2 on your fantasy team. 900 yds and 6-7 TDs are the floor for my expectations for him, but he could do even more than that given the schedule and the soft secondaries in the NFC West. Teams won’t be able to focus on stopping just him, with Gore and Vernon Davis occupying attention on offense. Now that Isaac Bruce has been traded to St Louis so he can retire, Josh Morgan is the clear #2 WR on the roster, although he’s really the 4th receiving option on the team. He blocks well and that endears him to the Singletary and the coaching staff, he’s also in his third year (which is when most WRs finally put it all together). He’s responsible for making the most of his limited opportunities in order to keep the heat off the big three. Ted Ginn Jr. may be the slot receiver & has the opportunity to burn defenses with his speed, but will focus primarily on special teams – too many drops and 0,1,2 reception games (11 of those last season) proved to be his demise in Miami – maybe the change of scenery does him good. Other WRs on the roster include: Jason Hill, Brandon Jones, rookie Kyle Williams, and Dominique Ziegler – all of whom will struggle for playing time. In terms of fantasy, the third & fourth WRs aren’t really a factor on this team with so many options ahead of them.
20. WR23 Mike Sims-Walker (25-126) 125.60 – 4-5th round
WR50 Mike Thomas (72-57) 86.40 – 15-16th round
WR93 Jarett Dillard (130-10) 44.80 – waiver wire
JACKSONVILLE – Mike Sims-Walker stayed healthy in 2009 and showed that he could be a starting WR in the NFL. Now can he be a #1 WR on your fantasy team? Maybe not, but a WR3 with WR2 upside is fine. He’s in a contract year and has plenty to prove, along with his coach and QB. 900 yds & 6-7 TDs for around 125 fantasy points are good projections for him. The question is who will be the #2 WR that will line up opposite Sims-Walker? Torry Holt is gone and there is youth all around Jaguars country. All signs point toward the versatile Mike Thomas to be the guy. He’s only 5’8” & may be better suited for the slot, but he’s strong, has elite speed and is the all-time Pac-10 leading receiver with 259 receptions. He also runs the football as well as returns kicks. He will be in a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE for the job with Jarett Dillard, Kassim Osgood, the preseason wonder Troy Williamson, **Tiquan Underwood** (sleeper alert) and Nate Hughes. The Jags are looking for a playmaker to emerge. Dillard, Williamson (if he can put it together) and Underwood are the frontrunners to challenge Thomas for the job. I believe that Troy Williamson could be the guy, but he’s never shown he can produce when the opposing defenses play for real. Dillard has the strength and nose for the endzone to be productive. He was making progress last season until a leg injury sidelined him. A report from the OTAs have Tiquan Underwood as a guy to watch. "We really need a speed receiver to emerge, someone who doesn't just stretch a defense, but someone who can be a playmaker down the field. He's shown in these OTAs he can. (Monday), he made a tremendous adjustment on a deep ball." Stay tuned.
21. WR25 Lee Evans (35-103) 118.20 – 10 – 11th round
WR81 Steve Johnson (152-2) 56.30 – 21-22nd round
WR94 James Hardy (151-2) 43.60 – waiver wire
BUFFALO – It’s tough to get excited about Lee Evans this year, as there is a void at the 2nd WR after they sent T.O. packing. This may draw more double coverage his way. There will be a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE between the other WRs for that spot: Steve Johnson has the talent and is rumored to be the #2 WR once the season begins – he’s gotten the most reps at that spot so far this offseason. James Hardy has been plagued by injury and inconsistency, but maybe rookie Marcus Easley will jump up and surprise everyone by earning the starting job in camp. Roscoe Parrish seems to be the third WR, if you believe what you see in mini-camp practices. Josh Reed has departed to San Diego, as Vincent Jackson insurance, presumably.
22. WR26 Jabar Gaffney (48-85) 115.50 – 13-14th round **value**
WR43 Eddie Royal (99-34) 92.90 – 10-11th round
WR69 Demaryius Thomas 71.10 – 11-12th round
DENVER – Eddie Royal was the worst starting fantasy WR last season – 34 fantasy pts – 0TDs – and he dropped from #20WR in 2008 to #100WR in 2009. His head was spinning, learning all the WR positions. Hopefully he has all that down by now and can just go out and play. Josh McDaniels is saying that he sees Royal as more of a slot receiver. The departure of Brandon Marshall opens the door for Jabar Gaffney to be a starter and #1 option on the Broncos. I have to say that I like where you can draft Gaffney in terms of value and his upside. He knows the offense, the schedule favors him, and he’ll only cost you a 12th or 13th round pick. All eyes in camp will be on GA Tech rookie and first round pick Demaryius Thomas – When given the opportunity to take Dez Bryant with a clear need at WR, the Broncos went with Thomas instead – why? They didn’t want another WR with off the field issues. Scouts have compared him with Calvin Johnson, and he’s had the benefit of Rod Smith working with him in mini camp and OTAs. As we saw with Royal last year, is this offense too tough to digest quickly? He also had offseason foot surgery, but is back and ready to go. We’ll see what role Thomas will take on in the preseason. Other guys on the roster, battling for spots: Brandon Stokley (75-66) could be camp casualty, rookie Eric Decker could develop into an Austin Collie type in a year or two, Kenny McKinley is very fast but injuries have been a concern, Brandon Lloyd worked hard to make the team last season but didn’t do much with his opportunities. There are 4 other guys on the roster who were invited to camp. They’re clearly looking to find some gems in Bronco country.
23. WR29 Dwayne Bowe (54-82) 111.90 – 4-5th round
WR52 Dexter McCluster 85.10 – 13-14th round
WR57 Chris Chambers (34-103) 81.60 – 12-13th round
KANSAS CITY – Dwayne Bowe had a tough 2009 – he was in the doghouse early in the season, then was suspended (four games -- substance abuse) toward the end of the season. The biggest problem, though, was that he was dropping too many passes. For a guy who was costing owners a 3rd or 4th round pick last season, he was bad news on fantasy rosters – you never knew what you would get by starting him. Chris Chambers came over from San Diego midseason and the change of scenery did him good, finishing 20 spots better than Bowe among all fantasy WRs last season. This season, the guy who everyone is excited about in Chiefs country is Dexter McCluster – he will probably be the second or third rookie WR taken in fantasy drafts this fall. The Chiefs plan to get him the ball in a variety of ways -- as a receiver, as a runner, and possibly as a Wildcat QB. McCluster had 1,700 yards from scrimmage last season at Ole Miss, and should operate primarily out of the slot for the Chiefs as a rookie -- perhaps similar to the way the Vikings used Percy Harvin last season. He’s got a high ceiling and if he looks good in the preseason, he could cost you more than the 13th or 14th rounder I am predicting right now. Jerhame Urban (former Seahawk, Cowboy & Cardinal) and Lance Long will also compete for reps out of the slot. Both are steady, team first guys who would get consideration should injury befall the starters.
24. WR30 Santana Moss (32-106) 111.20 – 6-7th round
WR41 Devin Thomas (81-50) 93.90 – 12-13th round
WR73 Malcolm Kelly (98-34) 68.20 – 19-20th round
WASHINGTON – Santana Moss is 31 years old and showed signs of slowing down last year and his YPC are down in each of the last 5 seasons. How much of that was coaching, the QB, the lack of a supporting cast, or was it the beginning of the decline for Moss? He’s also been involved in an HGH scandal, and while there’s no suspension for Moss, a second offense would result in suspension of some type. There is upside here, though, for Santana. He’s got a better QB now, a hall of fame offensive mind as a head coach, and one can hope that McNabb’s presence can turn one of the other WRs around. Heck, Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett have had moments of fantasy relevance because of Donovan throwing the football in Philly. Can Devin Thomas be the recipient of his tutelage this year? He was supposed to break out last season, and the year before, but has never emerged. He caught only 25 balls last season, and he was a starter for 10 games – ouch! Early reports out of OTAs say that he’s having trouble mastering the playbook and playing mistake free – not the way to stick on a Mike Shanahan team. Maybe it’s Malcolm Kelly then– he too was supposed to break out last year, and the year before, he has only caught 29 balls in his career. If he can stay healthy, though, he could surprise. If these two don’t work out, here are the guys who would be in line for the opportunity: Joey Galloway (he’s 39), Bobby Wade (trying to make it on his 5th team), Mike Furrey and rookie Terrence Austin. Maybe the most interesting of this bunch are Mike Furrey and Terrence Austin, although the rookie seems to be the return man more than a starting WR.
25. WR31 T.J. Houshmandzadeh (31-107)109.60 – 7-8th round
WR58 Golden Tate 80.10 – 13-14th round
WR90 Deon Butler (120-17) 48.00 – 22nd round/waiver wire
SEATTLE – The only WR we can write in pen as a starter on the Seahawks depth chart is TJ Houshmandzadeh. He’s coming off sports hernia surgery in April, but should be ready for camp. He came over from Cincinnati last year, yet because there was no viable #2 WR, he had a hard time getting open. Add to that the difficulties along the OL in protecting Hasselbeck, he also couldn’t get the ball deep. Both of these factors led to a disappointing first year in the Northwest. Seattle is obviously looking for a #2 WR. There will be a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE between Deion Branch (78-55), rookie Golden Tate, and Deon Butler for that #2 spot. (and possibly Mike Williams). Rumors surrounding signing Terrell Owens have been squashed recently, which leads me to favor the youth movement in Seattle and say that Golden Tate will win this job in camp. He has good Run After the Catch (RAC) abilities and has looked good in the offseason, picking up the offense. Deion Branch is coming off arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason (surprise). At this point, he may be more suited for the slot rather than a starting job. This coaching staff owes him nothing and open competition has been Pete Carroll’s theme all along. I don’t see him staying healthy enough to emerge as the starter. Deon Butler has drawn praise from Carroll as the most improved player thus far in the offseason. If he can get off the line of scrimmage against starting DBs in the preseason, he stands a good chance to compete for the starting job. He needs to make plays, though – something he didn’t do much of last year. A real wildcard in this WR group is USC grad and former first round pick **Mike X. Williams** (sleeper), who has been working on his comeback after faltering earlier in his career. He’s been making the most of his opportunity with the Seahawks, impressing coaches and the GM in minicamps – Pete Carroll says that physically, it’s the best he’s seen him since sophomore year. Let’s watch and see if he makes a push to be the starting WR or if this is just lip service to build his confidence.
26. WR32 Devin Hester (44-91) 106.70 – 7-8th round
WR39 Johnny Knox (60-78) 99.70 – 9-11th round
WR59 Devin Aromashodu (80-53) 79.90 – 8-9th round
WR97 Earl Bennett (49-85) 40.80 – waiver wire
CHICAGO – With Mike Martz as offensive coordinator in Chicago, everyone is high on the Bears’ WRs all of a sudden – I don’t know if I am totally sold just yet. Even though they will rotate 4 guys at the position, Devin Hester is projected as the #1 WR. He’s been working with former Martz protégé Isaac Bruce to improve his route running and understanding of the offense. The fact remains, however, that Hester doesn’t return kicks/punts anymore, only catches 3 TDs per season, and has never finished higher than the #44 WR in fantasy. He will cost you at least a 7th or 8th round pick, which is decent value for a guy who will probably get you 100 fantasy points. However, I think there are other, more explosive options to consider here. I sense that Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu are the better guys to have on this offense. Knox burst onto the scene (he was on a few deep sleeper lists last year as an undrafted rookie FA, btw) and showed he had the speed and hands to thrive in the NFL before missing the last three games of the year due to injury. Now, he made his share of rookie mistakes, but his ability to make plays will only be enhanced in Martz’ offense, if he can absorb the offense. If he shows in the preseason that he can’t, I’d be more cautious in approaching Johnny Knox this fall. He is entrenched as a starter on this team, mainly due to his excellent showing in the offseason workout program. Devin Aromashodu showed strong chemistry with Cutler at the end of last season when Hester and Knox were out with injuries, which is a big deal, given his inflated ADP right now. He’s listed as a backup WR, but could easily ascend the depth chart with an injury or poor play by the starters to be a viable fantasy option as well. Remember Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Az-Zahir Hakim? Well, Aromashodu is better than Hakim. He’s at least going to cut into any production that Greg Olsen may have, but I see more happening for him this season. He may be overvalued to be drafting him in the 8th round, and he’s on a lot of sleeper lists. The whole offense may start slow, we must remember, as there will likely be an adjustment period because the offense is new to many of the players. Let’s keep an eye on things and see how they develop. Other WRs on the roster: **Juaquin Iglesias ** (sleeper alert) – last year’s 3rd round pick didn’t catch a pass during his rookie season, but has impressed the coaches with his showing in OTAs and mini-camp. Earl Bennett was supposed to have chemistry with Cutler from day one last year, but that didn’t seem to happen the way it was advertised. Having said that, he finished only 6 points behind Hester last season. Rashied Davis rounds out the position, but I wouldn’t count on him fantasy-wise at all.
27. WR35 Jerricho Cotchery (33-106) 105.90 – 9-10th round
WR38 Braylon Edwards (42-92) 100.30 – 8-9th round
WR42 Santonio Holmes (15-152) 93.30 – 8-9th round
NEW YORK JETS – Jerricho Cotchery is one of the most durable options for Gang Green, and perhaps the most consistent. He runs good routes, has very good hands, and is terrific after the catch. Count on him for 100 fantasy points, 800 yards and 5 TDs. Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes may have more talent than Cotchery, but each has his warts. Edwards can make one of the most remarkable catches you'll ever see, and on the next possession he'll let a 40-yard pass bounce off his facemask. If he were simply able to cut his drops in half, he'd be an automatic top-10 receiver. That said, he opens up holes for the running game by being a viable receiving threat deep. He is also in a contract year. The Jets brought in Santonio Holmes, but he’s going to be suspended for the first 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. In addition to his marijuana misdemeanor, there’s an accusation that he assaulted a female bar patron, and an incident on an airplane where he refused to turn his cellphone off during a flight to NYC after he was traded to the Jets. He is likely to be overvalued on draft day, but would be a better pick in a dynasty league if you feel that a year with Rex Ryan in NY will straighten him out. My opinion is that Manhattan can be an alluring playground for a guy with authority issues, so I will be avoiding this potential train wreck and hope last season’s 15th ranked fantasy WR doesn’t appear in a lineup against me and cost me a game. 700 yards and 5 TDs are the numbers I see for him in the Jets’ run heavy offense. Other guys on the roster: David Clowney was injured most of his rookie season when he was on many deep sleeper lists when Brett Favre was a Jet. He was expected to do a bit better last year and that’s exactly what he did, a bit better. Brad Smith has seen his targets decline each of the last 3 seasons, and now he’s more of a gadget player than anyone you can think of having a positive impact on your fantasy team.
28. WR44 Kenny Britt (47-86) 91.20 – 8-9th round
WR70 Nate Washington (41-93) 89 – 15-17th round
TENNESSEE – There are two sides of the story concerning Kenny Britt. He didn’t start until week 10 in 2009, yet he still managed to have 42 catches for 701 yards and 3 TDs (16.7 yards per catch) on an offense that was driven by the running game. He also earned the trust of Vince Young as a playmaker he can count on in crunch time. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he was arrested in the off-season for unpaid parking tickets, showed up to OTAs overweight & out of shape, and only had 6 catches in the last 3 games last season. Nonetheless, he may be the most talented WR on the roster – talent normally finds its way onto the field, but if his conditioning doesn’t improve, Coach Fisher will have a hard time calling his number on Sundays. Nate Washington was brought in from Pittsburgh last year, and most of his stats came with Kerry Collins under center. The emergence of Kenny Britt and his inconsistency (catches only 50% of his targets) from game to game have tempered expectations for him this season, but if you don’t trust Britt, then Washington will benefit. Justin Gage (74-56) will be in a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE with rookie Damian Williams (USC – 3rd round) for the slot receiver position. Williams is a tough, mid-sized WR who is not afraid to go over the middle and make big catches in heavy coverage. He has the tools and work ethic to be a good possession WR and could be a contributor on offense from day one. Gage lost time to a back injury last season and has missed 16 games over the past 4 years due to injury. The drafting of Williams is further evidence that Gage’s hope of being the #1 WR are being overshadowed by a youth movement at the position. All of that being said, the Titans are a run-first offense – the ceiling for all of these WRs is limited, unless of course Chris Johnson’s contract holdout bleeds into the regular season.
29. WR45 Mohamed Massaquoi (58-78) 91.20 – 12-13th round
WR48 Josh Cribbs (73-57) 87.50 – 14th round
WR89 Brian Robiskie (129-10) 49.50 – 19th round
CLEVELAND – The one WR that you can probably count on as a bye week replacement or a flex option is Mohamed Massaquoi – he’s the most accomplished receiver on the Browns' current roster, although some will point to his inconsistency with drops and horrifically low target/reception rate (only 34 grabs in 95 targets). Could it be that he was a rookie or was it poor QB play? I say both. No matter, given the low Average Draft Position of the Cleveland WRs as a whole, there is value to be mined here – low risk, medium reward. There is a TRAINING CAMP BATTLE for the #2 spot between Chansi Stuckey (acquired in the Braylon Edwards trade), 2nd year guy Brian Robiskie, and I’ll throw newly added veteran Bobby Engram into that mix as well. You would think that Stuckey would have the edge because of his experience, but Robiskie seems to have a solid hold on the position at this point. One Browns coach said: "He started strong, and then got better. He never let up. He's made a huge jump." The Browns say Robiskie now "runs" the pass routes, rather than going through them "robotically," as he did his rookie season. He earned the respect of veteran QB Jake Delhomme, who told the coaches how Robiskie is "exactly where he should be at exactly the right time." Engram can push for the #2 spot, but has been better suited to the slot through the best part of his career. It may be that he’s there to push Josh Cribbs, who is not the most polished WR, but has the ability to make plays in space. Cribbs has been paired with QB Seneca Wallace in running the Browns’ version of the Wildcat. The Browns drafted Carlton Mitchell in the 6th round this past April, and he could make an immediate impact, given the lack of overall talent on the roster, Jake Allen was claimed off waivers from the Packers last year, but has yet to make an impact.
30. WR46 Donnie Avery (46-87) 89.80 – 11-12th round
WR64 Laurent Robinson (111-22) 76.50 – 17th round
WR98 Brandon Gibson (92-38) 40.30 -
ST. LOUIS – Donnie Avery was on many sleeper lists last year. He showed promise as a rookie, the Rams let Torry Holt go and made Avery the #1 WR only to have his sophomore season completely derail with various injuries. He had a stress fracture in the preseason, but played in Week one. Then he injured his ribs, hamstring, hip, shoulder and thigh. And finally, he ended his season with a concussion in Week 17. He STILL played in 15 games. He’s now 100% healthy, in his third season (a breakout time, traditionally, for wideouts), and has reassumed the #1 role – he has the talent, but can he stay healthy? Laurent Robinson won the #2 WR spot last year, but then HE went down with a broken leg and a sprained ankle in Week 3, effectively ending his season. IF he can stay healthy, he is expected to win the TRAINING CAMP BATTLE for the #2 job over Brandon Gibson, who looked good in relief of the injured Robinson last year. Gibson has enough quickness to create openings, but lacks top line speed and that may affect the team’s decision. The loser of this battle will be the #4 WR to make room for the rookie, 4th round pick out of Cincinnatti, Mardy Gilyard, who appears to be a lock for the slot position. He’s an explosive, dynamic player who works well in the open field. The backups Keenan Burton and special teams standout Danny Amendola also saw time last season and filled in very well when called upon to do so, which should only aid the development of the receiving group as a whole.
31. WR54 Arrelious Benn 82.70 - 14-15th round
WR72 Mike Williams 68.70 – 15-16th round
WR87 Sammie Stroughter (91-39) 52.30 – 22nd round/waiver wire
TAMPA BAY – There is a youth movement going on in Tampa Bay, and it’s clearest by looking at the WR position. In 2009, the Bucs found Sammie Stroughter in the draft and he paid off immediately as a dependable and effective slot receiver and return specialist before breaking his foot in Week 15. He’ll be back this year and the coaching staff loves his versatility and talent. In the offseason, the team let veteran Antonio Bryant get away as a free agent without making him a contract offer. Instead, they drafted Arrelious Benn in the 2nd round & Mike Williams (different from the guy in Seattle) in the 4th. Both are big, fast WRs worthy of fantasy consideration as both are expected to start Week 1. Early reports from mini camps and OTAs have Williams making big strides, looking like he’s right on track and ready to be a starter in the NFL. He has first round talent, but fell to the 4th round due to character issues. If he can keep his head screwed on straight, he would be a steal in the 15th round of your draft. Other WRs on the roster: Maurice Stovall, Reggie Brown, Michael Clayton, and Mark Bradley. Stovall has battled injuries and inconsistency, Brown was brought in as insurance should the rookies not work out, Clayton is around only because he makes too much money to be cut, and Bradley showed some flash in KC and will be battling for a roster spot.
32. WR61 Darrius Heyward-Bey (115-19) 78.80 – 19th round
WR70 Chaz Schilens (84-48) 69.70 – 12-13TH round
WR76 Louis Murphy (57-79) 65.30 – 16th round
OAKLAND -
FREE AGENTS:
WR80 Terrell Owens (26-123) 57.90
As I write this, it seems that the Bengals are concerned with Antonio Bryant’s knee injury that they are serious about signing T.O. It could be as early as today or tomorrow that we’ll know if Owens will line up opposite Ochocinco. There were rumors swirling about the Rams having a serious interest in signing Terrell Owens, which on one hand could’ve been good for the development of Sam Bradford, but on the other hand, looking at any team that signs him, the development AND fantasy value of all the other WRs on the roster could be diminished (see Lee Evans last season). He doesn’t play on special teams and I don’t know that if he isn’t one of the starting WRs on opening day that he won’t completely implode and become a locker room problem. Let’s keep an eye on this and see what develops. In the meantime, let’s rate who they have on the roster without the services of T.O. Yes, he's signed with the Bengals.
Danario Alexander - an undrafted free agent out of Missouri is working out for NFL teams. He’s a first round talent, but went undrafted after injuring himself in the Senior Bowl – he’s had durability issues throughout his career. STL and CHI seem most interested in Danario, should he be healed from his latest setback. Let’s hear how he does, but he’s a guy you should know as every year an UFA steps up to fantasy relevance (Johnny Knox last year).
Laveraneus Coles (55-82) signed with the Jets for the time that Santonio Holmes is suspended. We'll see what happens with him after Holmes comes back.
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