Each week, Philip and I are picking all the NFL games as part of the Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League. These are straight up picks, no point spreads involved. Here are our picks for Week 1 with the tiebreaker being the aggregate total score home-away for both MNF games:
NO, NE, TEN, DEN, CLE, DET, NYG, ATL, MIA, HOU, GB, ARZ, SF, WAS, BAL, SD
BAL 17 NYJ 16 - 28 total pts
SD 27 KC 16 - 43 total pts
HOME - 32 AWAY - 44
Friday, September 10, 2010
First Time FF Player advice & Draft Recap
My wife and a bunch of ladies are getting together tonight to start an all ladies, first timer Fantasy League. They are a little late to the game, as the season started last night. They will start their season in Week 2 - good for them! They asked me for advice. Here's what I told them:
1. You should draft the "core" of your team in the first 6 rounds of your draft (2RBs, 2WRs, 1QB, 1TE), not necessarily in that order.
2. The next rounds (7-9 or so) are for the best players available who you have targeted but didn't draft yet and also addressing bye week issues from your first six picks (usually RBs & WRs since you should have at least two of each by now).
3. The following rounds (10-15) are for depth on your roster by drafting your backup QB, TE, and drafting your starting Defense/Special Teams unit (DST), and RBs & WRs that you are "swinging for the fences" by drafting (aka finding a guy who scores a lot of TDs or is targeted enough to produce a ton of yardage each week who isn't predicted to do so).
4. The last two rounds (16-17) should go one of two ways: Kicker in the 16th, then a DST or sleeper pick in the 17th - or the reverse of that.
5. DO NOT draft your kicker before these rounds and DO NOT draft two kickers - it's a waste of a draft spot that you could use on a position player that really makes a difference. By "sleeper", we mean a player that you like to do well this year that most people don't really know about - a player that comes out of nowhere to have a breakout season due to injury to guys ahead of him, trade to a new team, &/or change in offensive system or scheme.
6. At the end of your draft, you should have 2QBs, at least 5RBs, at least 5WRs, 1TE, 1K, 1DST - that's 15 out of 17, if you're counting. You can use those other 2 spots any way you like: another RB, WR, backup your TE or add a backup DST. If you draft a backup at any position, you should double check that they don't have the same bye week (ie - drafting Tony Romo and Brett Favre is a bad idea - they are both off Week 4).
7. My last piece of advice: don't drink before round 9 during your draft. You'll like your team better the next day.
************************************************************************************
Looking at my own drafts this season, maybe I need to follow the blueprint a little more. However, I think that's part of the fun - deviating on the fly based on what's happening in your draft and who's still on the board. I targeted SF 49ers defense in all my drafts, but made the decision not to based on the QB run in one of the leagues. RB was the really tough position to get right this year. We'll see how "right" we all are in a few weeks, though, right??
Draft #1: Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League - our team, the Maury Conklin Group, that Phil and I drafted in the 8 slot of a 12 team PPR league of bloggers and fantasy experts (by round):
1. WR Randy Moss
2. WR Austin Miles
3. RB Ryan Grant
4. TE Antonio Gates
5. RB Ronnie Brown
6. RB Ahmad Bradshaw
7. QB Eli Manning
8. WR Derrick Mason
9. Jets DST
10. QB Ben Roethlisberger
11. 49ers DEST
12. WR Jerricho Cotchery
13. RB Kareem Huggins
14. WR Lance Moore
15. WR Dexter McCluster
16. RB Rashad Jennings
17. K Matt Prater
There's a previous blog post analyzing this draft more in depth. We're weak at QB but feel good about our other positions, overall. Our depth is developmental and provides for some movement when we need to make some Free Agent moves. We're waiting on Huggy to emerge and take us to the promise land later this season. Jennings and McCluster are our sleepers too.
Draft #2: The Whiplash Fantasy Football League, a ten team dynasty league, we keep 6 at any position each year - this means our first round is really the 7th in other drafts. My team, the Opa Locka Bowlsnappers, is the only three-peat champion in the league's nearly 25 year history. I drafted in the 8th slot due to my 3rd place finish last season. The draft order goes 1-10 each round - no serpentine.
Keepers:
QB Drew Brees
RB Ray Rice
RB Chris "Beanie" Wells
WR Marques Colston
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Mike Wallace
1. RB Justin Forsett
2. RB Ricky Williams
3. WR Santana Moss
4. TE Zach Miller
5. 49ers DST
6. RB LaDainian Tomlinson
7. RB Kareem Huggins
8. QB Ben Roethlisberger
9. WR James Jones
10. RB Willis McGahee
11. WR Danny Amendola
12. Chargers DST
13. K Stephen Gostkowski
14. WR Lance Moore
I don't feel so good about this draft, overall. I'm VERY weak at RB (we start 3 each week) and I kept the wrong player (WR Mike Wallace) thinking that RB Ahmad Bradshaw would fall to me at #8. He was gone at #5 - Wallace would've fallen to 8. I spent a good portion of the rest of the draft trying to fix this issue.
I feel good about where I got Zach Miller, but I overpaid for the 49ers and Huggins. I like the handcuff of McGahee to Rice - RayRay's my franchise, after all. There will be better options out there in Free Agency than Danny Amendola, so I moved him this week to pick up RB Peyton Hillis. I think he scores a TD or two Week 1 in Tampa Bay.
Draft #3: The Foodstamp League, a 12 team redraft PPR league. My team BigBen'sBathroomPass drafted in the 8th slot. That must be my number this year - I better not finish that way, given the value I was able to find in this draft:
1. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
2. WR Miles Austin
3. QB Tony Romo
4. RB Jahvid Best
5. WR Hakeem Nicks
6. WR Dwayne Bowe
7. WR Santana Moss
8. RB Ahmad Bradshaw
9. RB Jerome Harrison
10. TE Heath Miller
11. WR Dexter McCluster
12. WR Jabar Gaffney
13. RB Leon Washington
14. Chargers DST
15. RB Peyton Hillis
16. K Nick Folk
The biggest surprise I had here was enjoying MJD falling to me in the 8th slot. Here I got one of the big stud RBs normally not around past the 4th pick at a late 1st round price. I then decided to go big on WRs in this draft - we have to start 3 of them AND a flex RB/WR, so having many strong options each week is key to winning this league. There was a big premium early on the elite QBs, so Romo was good value in the 3rd round. I like where I got Heath Miller as Zach Miller went 2 rounds before. I'll look for a Jermaine Gresham or Tony Moeaki to possibly emerge as a starter on the waiver wire - Heath should be good for the foreseeable future as a good outlet for Dixon in PIT. I LOVE where I got Leon Washington and Peyton Hillis - awesome value, if they do what I think they can this year. The Charger DST has the benefit of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. I'll pick up another DST if they falter - some team always emerges that no one thinks will do well. I already moved Nick Folk in favor of Adam Vinatieri, who may have more opportunities vs. Houston in Week 1.
Draft #4: The Six Boroughs League, a ten-team PPR keeper league. We keep 3 at any position. This is the inaugural season. Philip and I are both in this league. My team, the Randolph Ruinators, drafted in the 10th slot of our serpentine draft.
1. WR Randy Moss
2. WR Miles Austin
3. RB Jahvid Best
4. QB Peyton Manning
5. RB Matt Forte
6. RB Ronnie Brown
7. TE Zach Miller
8. WR Santana Moss
9. Jets DST
10. 49ers DST
11. RB Leon Washington
12. WR Louis Murphy
13. RB Kareem Huggins
14. RB Peyton Hillis
15. QB Eli Manning
16. TE Todd Heap
17. WR Laurent Robinson
18. WR Lance Moore
19. K Neil Rackers
Ah, the joys of the "sandwich pick" 10th slot. It's really enjoyable to draft in the 1st or 10th slots because you can target 3 or 4 players, then get two at a time. My strategy here was to get keeper quality players in the first 6 rounds, get an elite QB, wait on TE till after the 6th round, grab the best DSTs as a pairing, and then get my sleepers as a pairing. I was able to accomplish ALL that, and then I had what was my favorite value sandwich pick pairing: Eli Manning and Todd Heap in the 14/15th rounds. To have both Mannings appeals to the Saints fan in me, and Todd Heap was so good during the fantasy playoffs last year, it gives me faith that he can fight off the two rookie TEs and beat single coverage more often this year with all the new weapons in the BAL offense. This was, I feel, my most balanced team that I was able to draft this year.
So, what do we learn from all this? Well, there are many ways to skin a cat, and if you know the rules of your league and the players, you've got to be flexible with your draft strategy if circumstances dictate it.
1. You should draft the "core" of your team in the first 6 rounds of your draft (2RBs, 2WRs, 1QB, 1TE), not necessarily in that order.
2. The next rounds (7-9 or so) are for the best players available who you have targeted but didn't draft yet and also addressing bye week issues from your first six picks (usually RBs & WRs since you should have at least two of each by now).
3. The following rounds (10-15) are for depth on your roster by drafting your backup QB, TE, and drafting your starting Defense/Special Teams unit (DST), and RBs & WRs that you are "swinging for the fences" by drafting (aka finding a guy who scores a lot of TDs or is targeted enough to produce a ton of yardage each week who isn't predicted to do so).
4. The last two rounds (16-17) should go one of two ways: Kicker in the 16th, then a DST or sleeper pick in the 17th - or the reverse of that.
5. DO NOT draft your kicker before these rounds and DO NOT draft two kickers - it's a waste of a draft spot that you could use on a position player that really makes a difference. By "sleeper", we mean a player that you like to do well this year that most people don't really know about - a player that comes out of nowhere to have a breakout season due to injury to guys ahead of him, trade to a new team, &/or change in offensive system or scheme.
6. At the end of your draft, you should have 2QBs, at least 5RBs, at least 5WRs, 1TE, 1K, 1DST - that's 15 out of 17, if you're counting. You can use those other 2 spots any way you like: another RB, WR, backup your TE or add a backup DST. If you draft a backup at any position, you should double check that they don't have the same bye week (ie - drafting Tony Romo and Brett Favre is a bad idea - they are both off Week 4).
7. My last piece of advice: don't drink before round 9 during your draft. You'll like your team better the next day.
************************************************************************************
Looking at my own drafts this season, maybe I need to follow the blueprint a little more. However, I think that's part of the fun - deviating on the fly based on what's happening in your draft and who's still on the board. I targeted SF 49ers defense in all my drafts, but made the decision not to based on the QB run in one of the leagues. RB was the really tough position to get right this year. We'll see how "right" we all are in a few weeks, though, right??
Draft #1: Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars League - our team, the Maury Conklin Group, that Phil and I drafted in the 8 slot of a 12 team PPR league of bloggers and fantasy experts (by round):
1. WR Randy Moss
2. WR Austin Miles
3. RB Ryan Grant
4. TE Antonio Gates
5. RB Ronnie Brown
6. RB Ahmad Bradshaw
7. QB Eli Manning
8. WR Derrick Mason
9. Jets DST
10. QB Ben Roethlisberger
11. 49ers DEST
12. WR Jerricho Cotchery
13. RB Kareem Huggins
14. WR Lance Moore
15. WR Dexter McCluster
16. RB Rashad Jennings
17. K Matt Prater
There's a previous blog post analyzing this draft more in depth. We're weak at QB but feel good about our other positions, overall. Our depth is developmental and provides for some movement when we need to make some Free Agent moves. We're waiting on Huggy to emerge and take us to the promise land later this season. Jennings and McCluster are our sleepers too.
Draft #2: The Whiplash Fantasy Football League, a ten team dynasty league, we keep 6 at any position each year - this means our first round is really the 7th in other drafts. My team, the Opa Locka Bowlsnappers, is the only three-peat champion in the league's nearly 25 year history. I drafted in the 8th slot due to my 3rd place finish last season. The draft order goes 1-10 each round - no serpentine.
Keepers:
QB Drew Brees
RB Ray Rice
RB Chris "Beanie" Wells
WR Marques Colston
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Mike Wallace
1. RB Justin Forsett
2. RB Ricky Williams
3. WR Santana Moss
4. TE Zach Miller
5. 49ers DST
6. RB LaDainian Tomlinson
7. RB Kareem Huggins
8. QB Ben Roethlisberger
9. WR James Jones
10. RB Willis McGahee
11. WR Danny Amendola
12. Chargers DST
13. K Stephen Gostkowski
14. WR Lance Moore
I don't feel so good about this draft, overall. I'm VERY weak at RB (we start 3 each week) and I kept the wrong player (WR Mike Wallace) thinking that RB Ahmad Bradshaw would fall to me at #8. He was gone at #5 - Wallace would've fallen to 8. I spent a good portion of the rest of the draft trying to fix this issue.
I feel good about where I got Zach Miller, but I overpaid for the 49ers and Huggins. I like the handcuff of McGahee to Rice - RayRay's my franchise, after all. There will be better options out there in Free Agency than Danny Amendola, so I moved him this week to pick up RB Peyton Hillis. I think he scores a TD or two Week 1 in Tampa Bay.
Draft #3: The Foodstamp League, a 12 team redraft PPR league. My team BigBen'sBathroomPass drafted in the 8th slot. That must be my number this year - I better not finish that way, given the value I was able to find in this draft:
1. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
2. WR Miles Austin
3. QB Tony Romo
4. RB Jahvid Best
5. WR Hakeem Nicks
6. WR Dwayne Bowe
7. WR Santana Moss
8. RB Ahmad Bradshaw
9. RB Jerome Harrison
10. TE Heath Miller
11. WR Dexter McCluster
12. WR Jabar Gaffney
13. RB Leon Washington
14. Chargers DST
15. RB Peyton Hillis
16. K Nick Folk
The biggest surprise I had here was enjoying MJD falling to me in the 8th slot. Here I got one of the big stud RBs normally not around past the 4th pick at a late 1st round price. I then decided to go big on WRs in this draft - we have to start 3 of them AND a flex RB/WR, so having many strong options each week is key to winning this league. There was a big premium early on the elite QBs, so Romo was good value in the 3rd round. I like where I got Heath Miller as Zach Miller went 2 rounds before. I'll look for a Jermaine Gresham or Tony Moeaki to possibly emerge as a starter on the waiver wire - Heath should be good for the foreseeable future as a good outlet for Dixon in PIT. I LOVE where I got Leon Washington and Peyton Hillis - awesome value, if they do what I think they can this year. The Charger DST has the benefit of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. I'll pick up another DST if they falter - some team always emerges that no one thinks will do well. I already moved Nick Folk in favor of Adam Vinatieri, who may have more opportunities vs. Houston in Week 1.
Draft #4: The Six Boroughs League, a ten-team PPR keeper league. We keep 3 at any position. This is the inaugural season. Philip and I are both in this league. My team, the Randolph Ruinators, drafted in the 10th slot of our serpentine draft.
1. WR Randy Moss
2. WR Miles Austin
3. RB Jahvid Best
4. QB Peyton Manning
5. RB Matt Forte
6. RB Ronnie Brown
7. TE Zach Miller
8. WR Santana Moss
9. Jets DST
10. 49ers DST
11. RB Leon Washington
12. WR Louis Murphy
13. RB Kareem Huggins
14. RB Peyton Hillis
15. QB Eli Manning
16. TE Todd Heap
17. WR Laurent Robinson
18. WR Lance Moore
19. K Neil Rackers
Ah, the joys of the "sandwich pick" 10th slot. It's really enjoyable to draft in the 1st or 10th slots because you can target 3 or 4 players, then get two at a time. My strategy here was to get keeper quality players in the first 6 rounds, get an elite QB, wait on TE till after the 6th round, grab the best DSTs as a pairing, and then get my sleepers as a pairing. I was able to accomplish ALL that, and then I had what was my favorite value sandwich pick pairing: Eli Manning and Todd Heap in the 14/15th rounds. To have both Mannings appeals to the Saints fan in me, and Todd Heap was so good during the fantasy playoffs last year, it gives me faith that he can fight off the two rookie TEs and beat single coverage more often this year with all the new weapons in the BAL offense. This was, I feel, my most balanced team that I was able to draft this year.
So, what do we learn from all this? Well, there are many ways to skin a cat, and if you know the rules of your league and the players, you've got to be flexible with your draft strategy if circumstances dictate it.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Buffalo Wild Wings All Stars Draft - The Maury Conklin Group
Philip and I drafted our team (The Maury Conklin Group) for the Buffalo Wild Wings Fantasy Football League this past Monday night, August 30th. While we like our team and our chances, there are questions at RB and QB that only the season can answer. The league is very savvy, and it seemed every time we targeted 2 or 3 players for our next pick, we would be reduced to one of those options when it was our turn. Visit the league site on Buffalo Wild Wings' site, where all the bloggers will post their progostications and predictions all season long: http://ff.buffalowildwings.com/
Here are the rules/scoring for the league just in case it resembles a league that you are drafting: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaguesetup/settings?leagueId=731393
YOU'VE GOT TO KNOW YOUR LEAGUE RULES BEFORE YOU DRAFT!!
12 TEAM LEAGUE - PPR - REDRAFT - SERPENTINE DRAFT ORDER
Roster: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR FLEX, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST - 7BENCH
QB: We made the decision early on that we were going to wait on drafting our QBs by pairing a QB2 with Ben Roethlisberger. We got Eli Manning in the 7th and Roethlisberger in the 10th. Looking back, we probably could have waited a round to get Eli and grabbed Ricky Williams or Cadillac Williams with our 7th rounder - he was on our radar there. Ricky went to the FFLibrarian right after us, and The Sports Outlaw grabbed the Caddy a few picks later. Roethlisberger in the 10th round became a matter of urgency as we didn't want to miss out on him, kill our draft strategy and wind up with Kyle Orton or Matt Cassel. Ouch, that would've hurt.
RB: Wrapped up with the decision to wait on QBs was a deal made to NOT draft Shonn Greene in the 3rd round or earlier. When we did the mock draft for a 12 team league in the 8th slot (our slot), we both saw that Greene (our #17RB) could be available. In a PPR league, I see that as overpaying for a guy who didn't catch a pass last year, and may only catch 10 this year at most. We wanted guys who would be featured in the run game AND the passing game. Sure enough, Shonn Greene went in the 2nd round - not a good value pick, in my opinion. We went with Ryan Grant in the 3rd round - our #10RB - he was the 17th RB off the board, so we got some value there. Then, we were looking at Matt Forte, Ronnie Brown and CJ Spiller for our 5th rounder. By the time we got to our pick, we took the oft injured Dolphin because Spiller and Forte were gone. He's generally a strong starter to your fantasy season, though, so we made some plans to draft later in the year guys who may emerge as starters. We took Ahmad Bradshaw in the 6th round, Kareem Huggins in the 13th (did you see Derrick Ward was cut yesterday!?!), Rashad Jennings in the 16th, and if Dexter McCluster can be a RB for roster purposes (gotta ask Wingo), he's a flex option for sure - we got him in the 15th round.
WR- In a PPR league where you have to start 3 WRs and a FLEX each week, you can't have enough stud WRs to keep you competitive. We agreed that our first two picks should be stud WRs and we got just that in the first two rounds: Randy Moss and Austin Miles respectively. We took Derrick Mason in the 8th round - we both believe that the Baltimore offense will be improved in their 3rd down conversion rate with Boldin onboard. This will open up TD opportunities for everyone in the offense. We got Jerricho Cotchery in the 12th, Lance Moore in the 14th, and then our rookie sleeper Dexter McCluster in the 15th. We debated on Cotchery, but Philip convinced me he's going to catch 4-7 balls a game just to keep the chains moving. We went with Moore due to his health, very strong camp, and we're not buying into all of those WRs in New Orleans staying healthy all year long. When one of them misses time, here comes Lance Moore in the slot. McCluster was one of two sleeper players that I identified before the draft to take a chance on. He's going to line up all over the place, run reverses, catch passes, hopefully return punts as well. We love our WRs in the Maury Conklin Group.
TE- I really wanted to get a stud TE for our team, a guy that you just plug in and forget about him. So yeah, we overpaid for Antonio Gates in the 4th round, but who else is really going to catch TDs with VJack out of the picture? Malcom Floyd, sure, and maybe Naanee catches a few, but we really like Gates this year. When no one took a TE yet, and we're sitting there in the 4th round and have our #1 TE, one of three TEs to have over 1000yds receiving last year just sitting there? We had to grab him.
DST- We did it again - overpaid for a position, but saved ourselves some headaches on a week-to-week basis. We got our #1 (SF 49ers) and #2 (NY Jets) Defense/Special Teams in the 9th and 11th rounds. We shouldn't have to make any moves to fix our DST problems or pick up a DST unit for a particular matchup during the season. We just have to choose the better matchup for these two each week. And oh yeah, nobody can start the Jets or 49ers against us.
K- Matt Prater - yeah, he's a kicker and we got him in the last round, like everyone should.
Here are the rules/scoring for the league just in case it resembles a league that you are drafting: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaguesetup/settings?leagueId=731393
YOU'VE GOT TO KNOW YOUR LEAGUE RULES BEFORE YOU DRAFT!!
12 TEAM LEAGUE - PPR - REDRAFT - SERPENTINE DRAFT ORDER
Roster: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR FLEX, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST - 7BENCH
QB: We made the decision early on that we were going to wait on drafting our QBs by pairing a QB2 with Ben Roethlisberger. We got Eli Manning in the 7th and Roethlisberger in the 10th. Looking back, we probably could have waited a round to get Eli and grabbed Ricky Williams or Cadillac Williams with our 7th rounder - he was on our radar there. Ricky went to the FFLibrarian right after us, and The Sports Outlaw grabbed the Caddy a few picks later. Roethlisberger in the 10th round became a matter of urgency as we didn't want to miss out on him, kill our draft strategy and wind up with Kyle Orton or Matt Cassel. Ouch, that would've hurt.
RB: Wrapped up with the decision to wait on QBs was a deal made to NOT draft Shonn Greene in the 3rd round or earlier. When we did the mock draft for a 12 team league in the 8th slot (our slot), we both saw that Greene (our #17RB) could be available. In a PPR league, I see that as overpaying for a guy who didn't catch a pass last year, and may only catch 10 this year at most. We wanted guys who would be featured in the run game AND the passing game. Sure enough, Shonn Greene went in the 2nd round - not a good value pick, in my opinion. We went with Ryan Grant in the 3rd round - our #10RB - he was the 17th RB off the board, so we got some value there. Then, we were looking at Matt Forte, Ronnie Brown and CJ Spiller for our 5th rounder. By the time we got to our pick, we took the oft injured Dolphin because Spiller and Forte were gone. He's generally a strong starter to your fantasy season, though, so we made some plans to draft later in the year guys who may emerge as starters. We took Ahmad Bradshaw in the 6th round, Kareem Huggins in the 13th (did you see Derrick Ward was cut yesterday!?!), Rashad Jennings in the 16th, and if Dexter McCluster can be a RB for roster purposes (gotta ask Wingo), he's a flex option for sure - we got him in the 15th round.
WR- In a PPR league where you have to start 3 WRs and a FLEX each week, you can't have enough stud WRs to keep you competitive. We agreed that our first two picks should be stud WRs and we got just that in the first two rounds: Randy Moss and Austin Miles respectively. We took Derrick Mason in the 8th round - we both believe that the Baltimore offense will be improved in their 3rd down conversion rate with Boldin onboard. This will open up TD opportunities for everyone in the offense. We got Jerricho Cotchery in the 12th, Lance Moore in the 14th, and then our rookie sleeper Dexter McCluster in the 15th. We debated on Cotchery, but Philip convinced me he's going to catch 4-7 balls a game just to keep the chains moving. We went with Moore due to his health, very strong camp, and we're not buying into all of those WRs in New Orleans staying healthy all year long. When one of them misses time, here comes Lance Moore in the slot. McCluster was one of two sleeper players that I identified before the draft to take a chance on. He's going to line up all over the place, run reverses, catch passes, hopefully return punts as well. We love our WRs in the Maury Conklin Group.
TE- I really wanted to get a stud TE for our team, a guy that you just plug in and forget about him. So yeah, we overpaid for Antonio Gates in the 4th round, but who else is really going to catch TDs with VJack out of the picture? Malcom Floyd, sure, and maybe Naanee catches a few, but we really like Gates this year. When no one took a TE yet, and we're sitting there in the 4th round and have our #1 TE, one of three TEs to have over 1000yds receiving last year just sitting there? We had to grab him.
DST- We did it again - overpaid for a position, but saved ourselves some headaches on a week-to-week basis. We got our #1 (SF 49ers) and #2 (NY Jets) Defense/Special Teams in the 9th and 11th rounds. We shouldn't have to make any moves to fix our DST problems or pick up a DST unit for a particular matchup during the season. We just have to choose the better matchup for these two each week. And oh yeah, nobody can start the Jets or 49ers against us.
K- Matt Prater - yeah, he's a kicker and we got him in the last round, like everyone should.
32 Teams - DST Rankings
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMs – 32 Teams Rankings – Tuesday, August 31, 2010
32 Ranking Team Name – (2009 Pos Rank – 2009 Fantasy Pts) 2010 Projection – ADP by round
1. DST1 San Francisco 49ers (4-134) 147.5 – 11th round
SAN FRANCISCO – Two big reasons that I have the 49ers as my #1 DST is their superiority on Special Teams and their division is easier to navigate than the Jets. They are also relatively healthy, with no major injuries to their starters (at the time of this writing). The return game ranks 2nd, the D-Line ranks 4th and their secondary ranks in the middle of the pack at 14. WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie WR Kyle Williams will handle the Punt & Kick Return duties this season. Tougher opponents on their schedule include home games vs. NO, PHI, ARZ and road games @ CAR, GB, ARZ, SD
2. DST2 New York Jets (8-118) 137.5 – 8-9th round
NEW YORK JETS – It’s hard not to like the Jets DSTs, with the #1 ranked D-Line and Secondary. The real knock on them is the special teams, and while I like Mike Westhoff and he does a great job, he lacks the sheer numbers and bodies to be able to keep specialists on the roster. The Special Teams ranks 24th. Rookie CB Kyle Wilson figures prominently in the preseason story about this unit. He will start if there is no Revis, with Cromartie on the other side. It looks like a deal with Revis is happening soon, so Wilson can get back to returning punts. The team wants WR Brad Smith to be the main KR guy, but others like WR Jerricho Cotchery and Jim Leonhard will be back there when the weather is tough. They’re the “hands” team. Quality opponents on their schedule include home/away vs. MIA, NE, then home dates vs. BAL, MIN, GB, CIN and away @ PIT. Only 9 quality opponents make this an attractive unit as well as away games vs. CLE and DET in weeks 9-10.
3. DST3 Cincinnati Bengals (19-108) 135.5 – 15th round
CINCINNATI – I’m very high on this unit mainly because of balance: the D-Line is ranked 11th, Secondary ranked 9th, Special Teams ranked 6th. They are moving toward a multiple front defense to confuse offenses, they added Adam Pacman Jones to a very good secondary and it looks like he’s making the most of his opportunity as a nickel corner. A concern is the recent injury of S Gibril Wilson, and that would bump this unit down a bit for me if he were lost for the season. Chris Crocker and Robert Geathers are banged up right now, but otherwise the unit is relatively healthy. RB Bernard Scott is on kickoffs, with WR Andre Caldwell & Pacman Jones as the backups. WR Quan Cosby is fighting to make the roster as the KR specialist, with Jones and rookie WR Jordan Shipley as his main competition. Dave Rayner v. Mike Nugent is the kicking battle. The Bengals’ schedule includes home/away v. PIT & BAL, home vs. MIA, NO, SD and away @ NE, CAR, IND, NYJ. 11/16 quality opponents.
4. DST4 Philadelphia Eagles (2-160) 133.5 – 11th round
PHILADELPHIA – This group has a bunch of strong LBs, maybe the best of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach. Akeem Jordan, Stewart Bradley and Ernie Sims may become household names in the City of Brotherly Shove before we know it. The strength of this DST is the D-Line and Special Teams, with the Secondary more in the middle of the pack – they finished as the #2 fantasy DST in 2009. Rookie additions at DE and S (Brandon Graham & Nate Allen) look to contribute right away, adding to a rotation of very capable guys. They could be the best fantasy defense out there, if it weren’t for their brutal schedule. Home and away games vs. all their division foes are brutal as none of the teams are pushovers, then tougher opponents include visits from GB, IND and MIN as well as road games @ SF and TEN. That’s 10 quality opponents out of 16 on their schedule, if you’re scoring at home. Kickoff returns will be handled by a DB – either Ellis Hobbs, Macho Harris, or Quinton Demps. Punts will be covered by WRs DeSean Jackson and/or Jeremy Maclin – Jason Avant has also been added to the mix, for depth purposes.
5. DST5 Baltimore Ravens (6-120) 130.5 – 11th round
BALTIMORE – If you draft the Ravens as your #1 DST, you will have some baggage that will come with it. A litany of injuries: CB Domonique Foxworth (torn ACL) is out for the year, Ed Reed could start the year on the PUP list & miss the first 6 weeks, rookie Sergio Kindle may miss the season due to a fractured skull, and Cary Williams is suspended for the first two games just to name a few obstacles to this unit being elite. They still have Ray Lewis, though, and Terrell Suggs is blowing everybody up that he sees. Dawan Landry and Tom Zbikowski are emerging leaders and a couple of hard-hitters from the safety positions. There is an interesting mix of young players with the old, and the front seven should be fine. It’s the CB position that is question at this point – monitor closely. They will still be a good defense, maybe not an elite one. Returning kicks are RB Jalen Parmele, CB Prince Miller, WR David Reed, S Tom Zbikowski, WRs Mark Clayton and Donte Stallworth. The D-Line is ranked 2nd, the secondary ranked 6th, but the special teams are ranked 25th in the league. Shayne Graham v. Billy Cundiff – the schedule includes home/away vs. PIT & CIN, then home vs. MIA & NO, away games @ NE, ATL, HOU – not a terrible schedule, really, which is why I have them in the top 5.
6. DST6 Green Bay Packers (3-143) 130 – 10th round
GREEN BAY – You wouldn’t know by looking at this unit in the wild card game vs. Arizona last year, but the Packers have a very highly ranked fantasy defense - #3 last season. They have a super talented OLB in Clay Matthews, although he’s going to miss a couple of weeks with a pulled hamstring. He should be fine once the season nears. Atari Bigby is nursing an injury as well, but the real concern is CB Al Harris’ knee – both started camp on the active PUP list, but Harris is a candidate for the inactive PUP and his status for Week 1 is in question. Having said that, the D-Line ranks 3rd in the league, the secondary 7th – the real struggle for this unit has been on Special Teams (ranked 26th). Return specialist CB Will Blackmon is still coming back from offseason knee surgery. WR Jordy Nelson has picked up the slack in his absence, but now there’s some competition: RB Brandon Jackson has been working on kickoffs as well as CB Tramon Williams, although he seems less likely to stick due to his defensive role. Two undrafted rookies have also been working on returns: RB Quinn Porter and CB Sam Shields, with Shields being the more heralded of the two. Quality opponents include home/away vs. the Vikings, road games @ PHI, WAS, NYJ, NE, and home games vs. DAL, SF, and NYG. (9 out of 16).
7. DST7 Dallas Cowboys (25-102) 129 – 12th round
DALLAS – Last season, the Cowboys did not allow a 100 yard rusher all year long. They had a slow start and a strong finish, from dealing the Saints their first loss in Week 15 into the playoffs. They finished as the 25th fantasy DST last year. They are an aggressive unit, led by DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. Gone is Ken Hamlin and in is Alan Ball, the new starter at FS, who should bolster a big weakness in the secondary, ranked 25th in the league. The strength is up front on the D-line and in the LB corps (ranked 7th), with the Special Teams in the middle of the pack (15). The return game should get a boost from rookie WR Dez Bryant (when healthy) and the team likes what they see out of rookie CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (say that 5x fast), who’s recently recovered from shoulder surgery in March. In the meantime, it will be RB Felix Jones and WR Miles Austin on kickoffs and WR Patrick Crayton on punts. These regulars, however, probably won’t see much action in the preseason. Lesser names looking to make the team will be given most of the return duties in the first few games. Quality opponents on their schedule includes home/away games in their division – again, no pushovers there – home games vs. TEN, NO, and away games @ MIN, GB and IND (11/16 quality opponents).
8. DST8 Minnesota Vikings (12-115) 127.5 – 9th round
MINNESOTA – There were a lot of high expectations for this unit last season and they were mostly met, but fantasy-wise, they weren’t as effective down the stretch for the fantasy playoffs. A big factor was the loss of MLB EJ Henderson in Week 13. Well, the Vikings got some good news in that Henderson is back on the field less than 8 months after breaking his femur. He is being worked back in a rotation with Jasper Brinkley until he’s 100%. Another concern for the defense is the status of CB Cedric Griffin (torn ACL) – he’s on the PUP right now. They’re rotating Lito Sheppard, Asher Allen and rookie Chris Cook, who’s turned some heads in camp with 3 interceptions in one practice. As good as the pass rushing D-Line and LBs are, the secondary is in the bottom half of the league and the special teams rank among the league’s worst. I was surprised to read about the special teams because I thought Percy Harvin solved a fair bit of that last season. He’s had time off because of the death of his grandmother and he’s been bothered by migraines again. Harvin is the main Kick Returner and once he returns, they want to work him into the rotation for Punt Returns as well. The main PR is Darius Reynaud, who has a sprained ankle right now. There is also talk of WR Bernard Berrian fielding some punts as well. Guys you will see in preseason games on kickoffs and punts: WR Jaymar Johnson, WR Ray Small, RB Ian Johnson and RB Albert Young. Their schedule includes very strong road opponents. It’s a good thing Minnesota can run the ball. Away games @ NO, NYJ, GB, NE, WAS, and PHI – Home games vs. DAL, GB, ARI, NYG. If you believe in the Chicago Bears being more than what they were, you can have as many as 12 out of 16 quality opponents on the Vikings schedule this year.
9. DST9 Pittsburgh Steelers (20-108) 126.5 – 11th round
PITTSBURGH – I have the Steelers ranked 9th overall based on their schedule, overall health of the unit and the healthy return of Troy Polamalu. Ziggy Hood has been the early talk of camp, DC Dick LeBeau’s induction into the Hall of Fame last week, and now it’s more focused on Polamalu and what the defense is actually doing. Last season, the Steelers found a return specialist in RB Stefan Logan, but he’s being pushed by rookie WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, who have both showed enough speed & ability on returns to make Logan a camp casualty – stay tuned. The schedule includes home/away v. BAL & CIN, then home dates v. ATL, NE, NYJ and away @ TEN, MIA & HOU. They will miss Roethlisberger for the first 4 weeks, but this defense may take that as a challenge to take matters into their own hands and get out to a stingy start: ATL, @TEN, @TB, BAL are the first 4 opponents.
10. DST10 New York Giants (21-105) 125 – 16th round
NEW YORK GIANTS – I probably should have the Giants ranked a little lower than #10 since their neither the D-Line, LBs, secondary, nor the Special Teams rank in the top 15 in any category. I am putting this ranking on the overall health of the unit, new DC Perry Fewell, and the favorable non-divisional schedule they have. Kenny Phillips is back, which is the biggest news for Big Blue. He’s not 100% yet and they are working him back slowly, but when he is back at Safety, there is more success for the defense as a whole. The additions of Keith Bulluck and Antrel Rolle give this unit more accountability, something that was horribly missing last season. Perry Fewell has been experimenting with formations and position changes for players (Kiwanuka & Chris Canty at OLB, Dave Tollefson at LB, etc.), as well as D-linemen intentionally not putting a hand on the ground at times to give the offense a different look. He’s more vocal than Bill Sheridan, and he seems to have the players’ attention. The schedule, even though it includes away/home vs. the NFC East only has 4 other quality opponents: @IND, TEN, @MIN, @GB. An issue that will need to be resolved is the loss of return specialist WR Domenick Hixon, then his possible replacement Chad Jones was in a car accident, leaving who to return kicks and punts? CB Aaron Ross, WR Mario Manningham, RB Danny Ware, and WR Sinorice Moss will all see time on return duty this preseason. We’ll see how it shakes out.
11. DST11 New Orleans Saints (1-168) 123.5 – 14-15th round
NEW ORLEANS – The Saints scored 9 DST touchdowns and had double digit fantasy points in ten games last season. Now, it’s not possible to predict that many TDs again, the unit remains mostly in tact with the re-signing of Darren Sharper, who recently came off the active/PUP list. It’s the loss of LB Scott Fujita they may feel more, as Clint Ingram (knee injury) has been mostly a disappointment as his replacement. The Saints will address the LB situation with more of a committee approach. The Saints’ D-Line ranks 8th, the secondary 3rd, and the special teams are middle of the pack at 17. Courtney Roby is the main KR, along with Rod Harper, who also sees time on punt returns. RB Reggie Bush, WR Lance Moore and DB Tracy Porter are the punt returners. The schedule is tough – duh, they won the Super Bowl – with several tough away games @ SF, ARI, DAL, CIN, BAL and visits from MIN on opening night and PIT after Roethlisberger is back. These are on top of the NFC South home/away schedule. The Saints traditionally have had a hard time with the Bucs, of all teams, and there has never been a repeat winner of the NFC South since the division was formed.
12. DST18 San Diego Chargers (10-116) 121.5 – 20th round
SAN DIEGO – The Chargers have the easiest Strength of Schedule in the NFL this year, with a strong start for all players on offense expected. The same should go for the defense, although the D-Line is ranked 25th and the 16th ranked secondary lost starting CB Antonio Cromartie to the Jets. The real value is the 9th ranked Special Teams on this unit – RB Darren Sproles (nursing a bum shoulder right now) is an excellent return specialist and he does a good job on 3rd downs in the offense as well. They have home games v. ARI, NE, TEN, SF and away games @INDY & CIN. If you count DEN as a quality opponent in their division as well as ARI, that’s 8/16 quality opponents – easily the least on this list.
13. DST13 New England Patriots (22-105) 121 – 17th round
NEW ENGLAND – The Pats are really focused on improving on defense and running the football this preseason. Injuries have slowed some of the progress, with Ty Warren out for the year, CB Leigh Bodden’s knee, and Derrick Burgess’ late report to camp. They’re really high on ILB Brandon Spikes and see big things for him and Pat Chung appears to be in the lead for the starting SS job. Rookie P Zoltan Mesko may be the biggest improvement on special teams. He landed all 5 of his punts inside the 20 vs. the Saints. NE likes to use multiple return men, but here are the main players: WR Brandon Tate, WR Julian Edelman – Maroney, Faulk, Welker, Morris, rookie WR Taylor Price can also see time in addition to guys from the secondary. Their schedule includes home/away vs. MIA, NYJ, then visits from CIN, BAL, MIN, IND, GB and away games @ SD & PIT. 11/16 quality opponents – many of them at home, though.
14. DST14 Indianapolis Colts (24-102) 119.5 – 17-18th round
INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts aren’t a great defense, but they’re not the worst either. They ranked in the middle in all categories last year: 15th D-Line, 12th in the Secondary, and 13th in Special Teams. They’re hopeful about the health and availability of S Bob Sanders (again) this year. He’s looked excellent in camp and appears to be healthy and ready to play. He’s missed so many games throughout his career, though, that it’s hard for me to be as optimistic. If he plays, then there will be an adjustment period since they’re not used to playing with him. The real concern seems to be that they’re hemorrhaging points in the preseason, not playing physical. My sneaking suspicion is that they’re saving it up for the regular season, but it’s cause for concern. The KR/PR duties will be handled by a combination of players: WR Brandon James, DB Ray Fisher, and RB Devin Moore. The schedule for the Colts is no walk in the park: home/away v. TEN, HOU, then home vs. NYG, CIN, SD, DAL and away games @WAS, PHI, NE. 11/16 quality opponents, and possibly a fair amount of them being shootouts for Manning & Co.
15. DST15 Chicago Bears (15-110) 117 – 15th round
CHICAGO – The biggest news for the Bears defensively is the FA addition of Julius Peppers, who for all the talk about his reputation for not giving full effort, has been a model player for Chicago thus far. There is competition all over the defense and DC Rod Marinelli has been pleased with what he’s seen thus far. A valid question about this defense is the pressure applied by the offense’s ability (or inability) to create first downs and stay on the field. If they score as quickly as Mike Martz would like, the defense cannot get a rest, and if they are ineffective, they cannot get a rest. It’s a balancing act that remains to be seen. The real value on this DST may be the Special Teams – ranked #1 last season, even though Devin Hester wasn’t the featured return man. WR Earl Bennett and WR Johnny Knox will share the load along with DB Danieal Manning, with Hester and WR Rashied Davis (if he makes the final roster) available for spot duty.
16. DST16 Carolina Panthers (11-115) 115 – 21st round
CAROLINA – Gone is Julius Peppers, and one can wonder where the pass rush will come from in Carolina this season. Injuries have depleted the D-Line: Louis Leonard is on the PUP list with an injured knee, and Tank Tyler is recovering from a knee injury he suffered in Week 12 last year. The LBs are being reshuffled: Jon Beason is being moved from MLB while Thomas Davis is completing his recovering from a second ACL injury. There have also been a rash of injuries that have slowed the defense’s progress at the start of camp. The strength of this unit is the 4th ranked secondary, though, and they will have to be sharp as 4 of the first 5 teams they play have strong passing offenses. The punt and kick return duties will be handled by any combination of players, as there is open competition for all slots. Here are the possible return men, by position, in no particular order: WRs Kenneth Moore, Dexter Jackson, rookie WRs Armanti Edwards, Trent Guy, RBs Tyrell Sutton, Mike Goodson, CBs Captain Munnerlyn, Brian Witherspoon, and rookie CB Robert McClain. The schedule includes home/away vs. NO, ATL as well as home games vs. CIN, SF, BAL, ART and away games @NYG and PIT. 10/16 quality opponents.
17. DST17 Houston Texans (16-110) 115 – 21st round
HOUSTON – The Texans have built their team around defense and in the game v. the Cowboys over the weekend, they showed their promise. Mario Williams was a force and seems fully recovered from a hip injury that kept him out earlier in the preseason. The LBs and secondary were running to the football, and frankly, they looked more physical than the Cowboys. This unit will miss LB Brian Cushing for the first four games of the regular season due to violation of the league’s banned substances policy. The team appealed the suspension, but it was upheld by the commissioner. It may cost him his Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Stay tuned. The DLine is ranked 9th, the secondary is ranked 11th (although they lost Dunta Robinson), but the special teams is ranked 28th. The Texans were hopeful that WR Trindon Holiday could be their return specialist, but he was lost for the season after suffering ligament damage to his thumb. WR Jacoby Jones may have to resume PR/KR duties, but he’s the #2 WR. WR Andre Davis, CB Brice McCain, and FB Vonta Leach are still in the mix for return duties. The schedule includes home/away vs. IND, TEN, then home games vs. DAL, NYG, SD, BAL and away games @WAS & NYJ. 10/16 quality opponents.
18. DST18 Denver Broncos (5-123) 112.5 – 15th round
DENVER– The biggest disappointment is the loss of OLB Elvis Dumervil, the main pass rusher of the group. They’re hoping that if all goes perfectly with his rehab that he can be back in December – highly optimistic thinking, I’d say. The Broncos couldn’t stop the run last year, so they revamped their D-Line, ranked 16th in the league last year. The secondary is a top ten unit, anchored by Champ Bailey and last year’s addition S Brian Dawkins. The special teams are a strength (ranked 7th), and along with the schedule, are the only reason to draft this DST. Eddie Royal was the main KR/PR last year, but the team is hoping that CB Perrish Cox can assume that role. If he can’t, then Royal can do it again, but with more of a committee approach with WR Kenny McKinley & CB Alphonso Smith. Their schedule isn’t bad, mainly because of their division. Home/away vs. SD, home dates v. IND, NYJ and away @ BAL, SF, ARI.
19. DST19 Miami Dolphins (18-109) 110 – 18-19th round
MIAMI – The biggest addition to the Dolphins defense has to be ILB Karlos Dansby. In fact, the LB group as a whole has experienced the biggest upgrades this offseason, as they are very high on rookie OLB Koa Misi as well. Rookie DL Jared Odrick is fitting in nicely along the D-Line, where there will be a rotation including Charles Grant and Marques Douglas. The Fish have lost DL Phillip Merling and LB AJ Edds for the season and CB Will Allen just got his knee scoped, so they are looking for guys to step in and make plays. The secondary is a real mess, ranked 31st last year, the real strength is on special teams. WR Davone Bess is the main return guy, but now he’s being pushed by WR Brian Hartline and Ryan Grice-Mullen. Other guys are getting a shot to return as well. We’ll let you know if anyone stands out. Miami’s schedule includes home/away vs. NE, NYJ, then home games vs. TEN & PIT, away @ MIN, GB, CIN & BAL. 10/16 quality opponents.
20. DST20 Tennessee Titans (17-110) 107.5 – 18th round
TENNESSEE – The Titans D had real issues in the secondary last season and need CB Cortland Finnegan to be healthy for this unit to rank better than 28th in the league. The strength of the defense is the D-Line, even though they’ve lost Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosh over the past few years, they haven’t skipped a beat and have gotten younger in the process. The Special Teams are a bit of a mess, though, ranked 31st in the league, and they’re trying all kinds of guys on kickoffs and punts – too many to mention here. Keep an eye on the box scores if you’re in a league that rewards kick/punt return yardage to see if one of the offensive skill players emerges, making them more valuable. Their schedule includes home/away vs. IND, HOU, then home dates vs. PIT, PHI, WAS and away games @NYG, DAL, SD, MIA – 11/16 quality opponents.
21. DST21 Washington Redskins (30-74) 106 – 21st round
WASHINGTON – The Redskins could be a sleeper DST in fantasy this year. The offense should be improved and with all the talent that Washington has gathered over the years will be utilized differently under new DC Jim Haslett and the switch to his 3-4 scheme. The story has been Albert Haynesworth and the conditioning test, but really, the story should be how the defense is ahead of the offense in camp. If Haynesworth, Maake Kemoeatu and Adam Carriker can get it together, this would be a strong front against the run, to be sure. The LBs should benefit from a step forward by Brian Orakpo and the potential for a strong year from Andre Carter making the switch from DE. The secondary is bolstered by DeAngelo Hall and LaRon Landry, and London Fletcher is the underrated LB on the defense. This group is deep, overall, in drafted talent. The return guys are WR Devin Thomas on kickoffs and CB Philip Buchanon on punts. Two rookies will get a shot at displacing them: WR Terrence Austin and WR Brandon Banks. Many others are also competing, but these are the main players thus far. Out of all the teams in the NFC East, the Redskins have the easiest schedule – they play home/away vs. the divisional foes, then home dates vs. GB, IND, MIN and a road game vs. TEN (10/16 quality opponents).
22. DST22 Buffalo Bills (13-112) 102.5 – 21st round
BUFFALO – This unit could be a sleeper if the whole team was better, but the offense may put the defense in some tough spots this season. They’re switching to a 3-4 scheme in Buffalo, they lost Aaron Schobel (released and will either retire or sign with the Texans, it seems), but there is optimism that this group could stop the run better than last season. The secondary is top notch, ranked 2nd and the special teams are excellent as well, ranked 3rd. It’s the 21st ranked D-Line that is troubling. OLB Aaron Maybin is a focal point this preseason, taking the next step to being more of a pass rushing force, something that this defense sorely lacked last year. The Bills have some excellent returners: CB Leodis McKelvin, Fred Jackson (when healthy), CJ Spiller, RB Chad Simpson, WR Chad Jackson and last but not least WR Roscoe Parrish, now out of the doghouse to try and gain back his role as the main PR option. The schedule includes home/away vs. the AFC East, then home vs. PIT, road games @ GB, BAL, CIN & MIN will be tough ones. 11/16 quality opponents, with 7 of them on the road…ouch.
23. DST23 Arizona Cardinals (7-119) 102 – 20th round
ARIZONA – The Cardinals lost LB Karlos Dansby (Miami) and DB Antrel Rolle (NYG) in free agency, which will hurt this unit. All the Cardinals picks are signed, now that rookie 1st rounder NT Dan Williams is in camp. They have high hopes for the rookie to stuff the run and play in the middle between Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell. The secondary was torched by the Packers in the playoffs, but they escaped that game with an OT victory. They added Kerry Rhodes (Jets) to help out Antonio Rogers-Cromartie. The special teams are a strength of this unit, ranked #10 in the league. RB LaRod Stephens-Howling is the primary KR option, and WR Andre Roberts is the favorite to win the PR job. Arizona would like Steve Breaston to concentrate on being a starting WR rather than get knocked around on special teams, which is understandable. The schedule is favorable, due to weaker opponents in the division. Only 6 quality opponents, by my count: Away games @ SD, MIN, SF and home games vs. NO, SF and DAL.
24. DST24 Tampa Bay Bucs (9-116) 101.5 – 20th round
TAMPA BAY – The youth movement that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continues with the drafting of DTs Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, but they otherwise stood pat on a unit that was worst in the NFL stopping the run last season. The D-Line is ranked 31st, the secondary 13th, but the real strength is on special teams, ranked 5th in the league. The return game missed RB Clifton Smith, who was plagued by concussions last season. WR Sammie Stroughter stepped in and did well, until he broke his foot. Then, WR Micheal Spurlock was brought back to finish the year. Smith is the favorite to retain his job, with Stroughter as the backup and starting slot receiver. The schedule is a tale of two cities: easier at home, brutal on the road. In addition to the home/away schedule vs. the NFC South, the Bucs will play @ CIN, ARI, SF, BAL, WAS and host PIT without Roethlisberger.
25. DST25 Kansas City Chiefs (14-111) 98.5 – 21st round
KANSAS CITY – The Chiefs have a tough time stopping the run and generating consistent pressure on the QB. Both of those situations don’t point to a great deal of success on defense. The D-Line is ranked last in the league. However, the secondary is stellar, ranked 8th in the league. The special teams are also very good, ranked 11th. There has been a real effort to shore up the LB group this preseason. With LB Derrick Johnson in Coach Haley’s doghouse, though, it doesn’t make sense how that’s supposed to help. The return roles are pretty clear: rookie CB Javier Arenas is the return specialist on kickoffs and punts. It’s unclear when rookie WR Dexter McCluster will join Arenas on punts, as was the plan when they were both drafted. The Chiefs schedule includes home/away v. SD, DEN, then home games vs. SF, ARI, TEN and an away game @ HOU. A weak overall schedule, but if you can’t stop the run…??? 8/16 quality opponents.
26. DST26 Cleveland Browns (23-104) 97 – waiver wire
CLEVELAND – The Browns added a lot of bodies to the defense in the offseason, looking to improve: Start-worthy additions include S TJ Ward and CB Joe Haden who were added through the draft, they also signed OLB Scott Fujita as a free agent. The Browns are still waiting for DL Shaun Rogers to be healthy enough to participate in camp – they want to move him around on the line to create favorable matchups and improve the pass rush. He’s expected to be ready for Week 1. The team is set with WR Josh Cribbs at KR/PR/RB/QB – he’s the top returner in the league. But who would spell him if he were injured or couldn’t be on the field for some reason? The backups are WR Syndric Steptoe and CB Gerard Lawson, and the Browns are trying out other options in the preseason as well. The schedule is absolutely brutal, mainly because of the home/away games vs. BAL, PIT & CIN, add to those six home games vs. ATL, NE, NYJ, CAR and away @ NO & MIA and that equals 12/16 quality opponents for the Browns.
27. DST27 Atlanta Falcons (26-102) 95.5 – 21st round
ATLANTA – Perhaps you could use the Falcons DST as a bye week replacement if things work out right for them as the season goes on. Right now, they are pretty good against the run, but they got killed with the pass most of last season. They signed Dunta Robinson to help shore up the pass, drafted OLB Sean Weatherspoon and DT Corey Peters to stuff the run, and John Abraham has participated in an offseason program (Bommarito Performance Systems in SoFla) to improve his pass rush and overall performance. If they can add some speed in the return game and all of the above breaks just right, then the Falcons can be much more effective on defense and worth picking up for more than just that matchup vs. CLE, TB or SEA. After injuries to RB Jerious Norwood and WR Harry Douglas last year, WR Eric Weems stepped in to fill the void in the return game. Neither Norwood nor Douglas are healthy enough right now to take the job away from Weems, but rookie CB Dominique Franks is challenging for the job. There are others with return experience who will appear in the preseason, but Franks seems to be the main competition. The schedule doesn’t do the Falcons any favors, save for the tougher non-divisional matchups are at home vs. ARI, SF, CIN, BAL, GB, then road games @ PIT & PHI – add NO & CAR home/away to the list and that’s 11/16 quality opponents for Atlanta this year.
28. DST28 Oakland Raiders (29-77) 92.5 – 21st roundOAKLAND – The Raiders were 7th in pass defense last year, so that is a positive for this group. There’s a new DC in town as well. John Marshall’s system is a read and react defense. Additionally, CB Nnamdi Asomugha has lobbied to play against the #1 WR no matter where he lines up rather than just play on one side. Is he looking to start his own “Asomugha Land” like “Revis Island”? Either way, it’s a positive sign that he’s motivated and wants to make plays. The Raiders were horrible against the run last year, though, so there are wholesale changes afoot in Oakland that are cause for optimism in the East Bay Area. DL Richard Seymour was brought in not just for his ability, but for his leadership, add a bunch of draft picks on defense and this unit has a chance to be improved up the middle. A lot is going to be expected of MLB Rolando McClain to stop the run this year. At best, they are backup DST – at worst they are the 28th ranked DST as I have them. It wouldn’t surprise me, though, to see the Raiders and Broncos switch places on this list by the end of the year. Rock Cartwright and Johnnie Lee Higgins are slated to handle most of the return duties. The Raiders want WR Jacoby Ford to be a return specialist, but injuries are holding him back this preseason. Their schedule features home/away vs. SD, DEN, then home games vs. HOU, MIA, IND and away games @ TEN, ARI, SF, PIT. 11/16 quality opponents.
29. DST29 Seattle Seahawks (28-92) 91 – 21st round
SEATTLE – It’s tough to get excited about the Seahawks defense as a fantasy prospect, but they do play in the NFC West and generally play well vs. the Rams twice a season. There are talented players like Marcus Trufant (who has been resurgent to his 2007 form in camp right now), Aaron Curry, Jordan Babineaux, Lofa Tatupu and rookie Earl Thomas on the roster. We just don’t know what to expect from this unit under the new coaching staff, save for they will struggle. DC Casey Bradley is in his 2nd year in Seattle, so there is continuity of coaching on this side of the football. The special teams unit is in search of a long snapper. After several guys have come through and either got injured or just didn’t stick. They recently picked up Clint Gresham off waivers from the Saints. The return duties have been divided up between rookie WR Golden Tate, RBs Leon Washington, Justin Forsett, CBs Josh Wilson and rookie CB Walter Thurmond. Whoever earns the PR and KR roles will depend on workload and health factors. The schedule has only 7 quality opponents: home vs. SF, ARI, NYG and away @ SF, ARI, SD and NO.
30. DST30 St. Louis Rams (31-69) 87.5 – waiver wire
ST. LOUIS – I have looked at the schedule for at least the past three years to see who is playing against STL in the fantasy playoffs and have targeted players based on those matchups. This year really isn’t any different, save for they might move the ball a little better on offense. Steve Spagnuolo may be a great defensive coach, but he needs more talent. And aside from James Laurinaitis, Oshiomogho Atogwe and Chris Long, the Rams need work on defense. They were also hit with a rash of injuries last week, which doesn’t help, but nothing was of the season-ending variety. The special teams are a strength, with WR Danny Amendola emerging last season as the return specialist. The Rams drafted WR Mardy Gilyard and he will push for time as a return man, as soon as he heals from a wrist injury sustained over the weekend. The schedule, aside from NFC West foes, has 3 quality opponents: WAS & SD at home, NO on the road.
31. DST31 Jacksonville Jaguars (32-64) 86.5 – waiver wire
JACKSONVILLE – The Jags lack a pass rush and there are questions in the secondary. They signed Aaron Kampman to shore up the D-Line, and he’s in the rotation after recovering from ACL surgery. CB Rashean Mathis wants a new contract and he’s missed practices to express his disappointment. The team needs his leadership, though, and so hopefully something will get worked out either before or during the season. Rookie CB Scotty McGee will be the punt returner and rookie RB Deji Karim will be the kickoff returner. I wouldn’t expect too much from the Jags this season. They have home/away vs. IND, TEN, HOU – home games vs. PHI, WAS, and road games @DAL, NYG. Leave them on the waiver wire.
32. DST32 Detroit Lions (22-53) 85 – waiver wire
DETROIT – The Lions are expected to do better this season. They’ve made efforts to improve their D-Line by signing Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafting Ndamukong Suh. If successful, the stronger pass rush should take some pressure off the porous secondary, ranked 32nd in the league. The special teams are improved, although there’s a shakeup in who will be returning punts and kicks this year. WR Derrick Williams was drafted to be the specialist last year, but it never materialized. He’ll get another shot this year, and several players will join in. On kickoffs: RBs Aaron Brown and Jahvid Best, and on punts WR Tim Toone. If Dennis Northcutt and/or Nate Burleson see any work with the return teams in August should be monitored. The schedule is forgiving, though, not as much as the Rams’ schedule because of the strength of divisional opponents. In addition to playing home/away vs. the NFC North, the Lions will host PHI & WAS, and play @ NYG & DAL. 10/16 quality opponents on the schedule…ouch.
32 Ranking Team Name – (2009 Pos Rank – 2009 Fantasy Pts) 2010 Projection – ADP by round
1. DST1 San Francisco 49ers (4-134) 147.5 – 11th round
SAN FRANCISCO – Two big reasons that I have the 49ers as my #1 DST is their superiority on Special Teams and their division is easier to navigate than the Jets. They are also relatively healthy, with no major injuries to their starters (at the time of this writing). The return game ranks 2nd, the D-Line ranks 4th and their secondary ranks in the middle of the pack at 14. WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie WR Kyle Williams will handle the Punt & Kick Return duties this season. Tougher opponents on their schedule include home games vs. NO, PHI, ARZ and road games @ CAR, GB, ARZ, SD
2. DST2 New York Jets (8-118) 137.5 – 8-9th round
NEW YORK JETS – It’s hard not to like the Jets DSTs, with the #1 ranked D-Line and Secondary. The real knock on them is the special teams, and while I like Mike Westhoff and he does a great job, he lacks the sheer numbers and bodies to be able to keep specialists on the roster. The Special Teams ranks 24th. Rookie CB Kyle Wilson figures prominently in the preseason story about this unit. He will start if there is no Revis, with Cromartie on the other side. It looks like a deal with Revis is happening soon, so Wilson can get back to returning punts. The team wants WR Brad Smith to be the main KR guy, but others like WR Jerricho Cotchery and Jim Leonhard will be back there when the weather is tough. They’re the “hands” team. Quality opponents on their schedule include home/away vs. MIA, NE, then home dates vs. BAL, MIN, GB, CIN and away @ PIT. Only 9 quality opponents make this an attractive unit as well as away games vs. CLE and DET in weeks 9-10.
3. DST3 Cincinnati Bengals (19-108) 135.5 – 15th round
CINCINNATI – I’m very high on this unit mainly because of balance: the D-Line is ranked 11th, Secondary ranked 9th, Special Teams ranked 6th. They are moving toward a multiple front defense to confuse offenses, they added Adam Pacman Jones to a very good secondary and it looks like he’s making the most of his opportunity as a nickel corner. A concern is the recent injury of S Gibril Wilson, and that would bump this unit down a bit for me if he were lost for the season. Chris Crocker and Robert Geathers are banged up right now, but otherwise the unit is relatively healthy. RB Bernard Scott is on kickoffs, with WR Andre Caldwell & Pacman Jones as the backups. WR Quan Cosby is fighting to make the roster as the KR specialist, with Jones and rookie WR Jordan Shipley as his main competition. Dave Rayner v. Mike Nugent is the kicking battle. The Bengals’ schedule includes home/away v. PIT & BAL, home vs. MIA, NO, SD and away @ NE, CAR, IND, NYJ. 11/16 quality opponents.
4. DST4 Philadelphia Eagles (2-160) 133.5 – 11th round
PHILADELPHIA – This group has a bunch of strong LBs, maybe the best of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach. Akeem Jordan, Stewart Bradley and Ernie Sims may become household names in the City of Brotherly Shove before we know it. The strength of this DST is the D-Line and Special Teams, with the Secondary more in the middle of the pack – they finished as the #2 fantasy DST in 2009. Rookie additions at DE and S (Brandon Graham & Nate Allen) look to contribute right away, adding to a rotation of very capable guys. They could be the best fantasy defense out there, if it weren’t for their brutal schedule. Home and away games vs. all their division foes are brutal as none of the teams are pushovers, then tougher opponents include visits from GB, IND and MIN as well as road games @ SF and TEN. That’s 10 quality opponents out of 16 on their schedule, if you’re scoring at home. Kickoff returns will be handled by a DB – either Ellis Hobbs, Macho Harris, or Quinton Demps. Punts will be covered by WRs DeSean Jackson and/or Jeremy Maclin – Jason Avant has also been added to the mix, for depth purposes.
5. DST5 Baltimore Ravens (6-120) 130.5 – 11th round
BALTIMORE – If you draft the Ravens as your #1 DST, you will have some baggage that will come with it. A litany of injuries: CB Domonique Foxworth (torn ACL) is out for the year, Ed Reed could start the year on the PUP list & miss the first 6 weeks, rookie Sergio Kindle may miss the season due to a fractured skull, and Cary Williams is suspended for the first two games just to name a few obstacles to this unit being elite. They still have Ray Lewis, though, and Terrell Suggs is blowing everybody up that he sees. Dawan Landry and Tom Zbikowski are emerging leaders and a couple of hard-hitters from the safety positions. There is an interesting mix of young players with the old, and the front seven should be fine. It’s the CB position that is question at this point – monitor closely. They will still be a good defense, maybe not an elite one. Returning kicks are RB Jalen Parmele, CB Prince Miller, WR David Reed, S Tom Zbikowski, WRs Mark Clayton and Donte Stallworth. The D-Line is ranked 2nd, the secondary ranked 6th, but the special teams are ranked 25th in the league. Shayne Graham v. Billy Cundiff – the schedule includes home/away vs. PIT & CIN, then home vs. MIA & NO, away games @ NE, ATL, HOU – not a terrible schedule, really, which is why I have them in the top 5.
6. DST6 Green Bay Packers (3-143) 130 – 10th round
GREEN BAY – You wouldn’t know by looking at this unit in the wild card game vs. Arizona last year, but the Packers have a very highly ranked fantasy defense - #3 last season. They have a super talented OLB in Clay Matthews, although he’s going to miss a couple of weeks with a pulled hamstring. He should be fine once the season nears. Atari Bigby is nursing an injury as well, but the real concern is CB Al Harris’ knee – both started camp on the active PUP list, but Harris is a candidate for the inactive PUP and his status for Week 1 is in question. Having said that, the D-Line ranks 3rd in the league, the secondary 7th – the real struggle for this unit has been on Special Teams (ranked 26th). Return specialist CB Will Blackmon is still coming back from offseason knee surgery. WR Jordy Nelson has picked up the slack in his absence, but now there’s some competition: RB Brandon Jackson has been working on kickoffs as well as CB Tramon Williams, although he seems less likely to stick due to his defensive role. Two undrafted rookies have also been working on returns: RB Quinn Porter and CB Sam Shields, with Shields being the more heralded of the two. Quality opponents include home/away vs. the Vikings, road games @ PHI, WAS, NYJ, NE, and home games vs. DAL, SF, and NYG. (9 out of 16).
7. DST7 Dallas Cowboys (25-102) 129 – 12th round
DALLAS – Last season, the Cowboys did not allow a 100 yard rusher all year long. They had a slow start and a strong finish, from dealing the Saints their first loss in Week 15 into the playoffs. They finished as the 25th fantasy DST last year. They are an aggressive unit, led by DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. Gone is Ken Hamlin and in is Alan Ball, the new starter at FS, who should bolster a big weakness in the secondary, ranked 25th in the league. The strength is up front on the D-line and in the LB corps (ranked 7th), with the Special Teams in the middle of the pack (15). The return game should get a boost from rookie WR Dez Bryant (when healthy) and the team likes what they see out of rookie CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (say that 5x fast), who’s recently recovered from shoulder surgery in March. In the meantime, it will be RB Felix Jones and WR Miles Austin on kickoffs and WR Patrick Crayton on punts. These regulars, however, probably won’t see much action in the preseason. Lesser names looking to make the team will be given most of the return duties in the first few games. Quality opponents on their schedule includes home/away games in their division – again, no pushovers there – home games vs. TEN, NO, and away games @ MIN, GB and IND (11/16 quality opponents).
8. DST8 Minnesota Vikings (12-115) 127.5 – 9th round
MINNESOTA – There were a lot of high expectations for this unit last season and they were mostly met, but fantasy-wise, they weren’t as effective down the stretch for the fantasy playoffs. A big factor was the loss of MLB EJ Henderson in Week 13. Well, the Vikings got some good news in that Henderson is back on the field less than 8 months after breaking his femur. He is being worked back in a rotation with Jasper Brinkley until he’s 100%. Another concern for the defense is the status of CB Cedric Griffin (torn ACL) – he’s on the PUP right now. They’re rotating Lito Sheppard, Asher Allen and rookie Chris Cook, who’s turned some heads in camp with 3 interceptions in one practice. As good as the pass rushing D-Line and LBs are, the secondary is in the bottom half of the league and the special teams rank among the league’s worst. I was surprised to read about the special teams because I thought Percy Harvin solved a fair bit of that last season. He’s had time off because of the death of his grandmother and he’s been bothered by migraines again. Harvin is the main Kick Returner and once he returns, they want to work him into the rotation for Punt Returns as well. The main PR is Darius Reynaud, who has a sprained ankle right now. There is also talk of WR Bernard Berrian fielding some punts as well. Guys you will see in preseason games on kickoffs and punts: WR Jaymar Johnson, WR Ray Small, RB Ian Johnson and RB Albert Young. Their schedule includes very strong road opponents. It’s a good thing Minnesota can run the ball. Away games @ NO, NYJ, GB, NE, WAS, and PHI – Home games vs. DAL, GB, ARI, NYG. If you believe in the Chicago Bears being more than what they were, you can have as many as 12 out of 16 quality opponents on the Vikings schedule this year.
9. DST9 Pittsburgh Steelers (20-108) 126.5 – 11th round
PITTSBURGH – I have the Steelers ranked 9th overall based on their schedule, overall health of the unit and the healthy return of Troy Polamalu. Ziggy Hood has been the early talk of camp, DC Dick LeBeau’s induction into the Hall of Fame last week, and now it’s more focused on Polamalu and what the defense is actually doing. Last season, the Steelers found a return specialist in RB Stefan Logan, but he’s being pushed by rookie WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, who have both showed enough speed & ability on returns to make Logan a camp casualty – stay tuned. The schedule includes home/away v. BAL & CIN, then home dates v. ATL, NE, NYJ and away @ TEN, MIA & HOU. They will miss Roethlisberger for the first 4 weeks, but this defense may take that as a challenge to take matters into their own hands and get out to a stingy start: ATL, @TEN, @TB, BAL are the first 4 opponents.
10. DST10 New York Giants (21-105) 125 – 16th round
NEW YORK GIANTS – I probably should have the Giants ranked a little lower than #10 since their neither the D-Line, LBs, secondary, nor the Special Teams rank in the top 15 in any category. I am putting this ranking on the overall health of the unit, new DC Perry Fewell, and the favorable non-divisional schedule they have. Kenny Phillips is back, which is the biggest news for Big Blue. He’s not 100% yet and they are working him back slowly, but when he is back at Safety, there is more success for the defense as a whole. The additions of Keith Bulluck and Antrel Rolle give this unit more accountability, something that was horribly missing last season. Perry Fewell has been experimenting with formations and position changes for players (Kiwanuka & Chris Canty at OLB, Dave Tollefson at LB, etc.), as well as D-linemen intentionally not putting a hand on the ground at times to give the offense a different look. He’s more vocal than Bill Sheridan, and he seems to have the players’ attention. The schedule, even though it includes away/home vs. the NFC East only has 4 other quality opponents: @IND, TEN, @MIN, @GB. An issue that will need to be resolved is the loss of return specialist WR Domenick Hixon, then his possible replacement Chad Jones was in a car accident, leaving who to return kicks and punts? CB Aaron Ross, WR Mario Manningham, RB Danny Ware, and WR Sinorice Moss will all see time on return duty this preseason. We’ll see how it shakes out.
11. DST11 New Orleans Saints (1-168) 123.5 – 14-15th round
NEW ORLEANS – The Saints scored 9 DST touchdowns and had double digit fantasy points in ten games last season. Now, it’s not possible to predict that many TDs again, the unit remains mostly in tact with the re-signing of Darren Sharper, who recently came off the active/PUP list. It’s the loss of LB Scott Fujita they may feel more, as Clint Ingram (knee injury) has been mostly a disappointment as his replacement. The Saints will address the LB situation with more of a committee approach. The Saints’ D-Line ranks 8th, the secondary 3rd, and the special teams are middle of the pack at 17. Courtney Roby is the main KR, along with Rod Harper, who also sees time on punt returns. RB Reggie Bush, WR Lance Moore and DB Tracy Porter are the punt returners. The schedule is tough – duh, they won the Super Bowl – with several tough away games @ SF, ARI, DAL, CIN, BAL and visits from MIN on opening night and PIT after Roethlisberger is back. These are on top of the NFC South home/away schedule. The Saints traditionally have had a hard time with the Bucs, of all teams, and there has never been a repeat winner of the NFC South since the division was formed.
12. DST18 San Diego Chargers (10-116) 121.5 – 20th round
SAN DIEGO – The Chargers have the easiest Strength of Schedule in the NFL this year, with a strong start for all players on offense expected. The same should go for the defense, although the D-Line is ranked 25th and the 16th ranked secondary lost starting CB Antonio Cromartie to the Jets. The real value is the 9th ranked Special Teams on this unit – RB Darren Sproles (nursing a bum shoulder right now) is an excellent return specialist and he does a good job on 3rd downs in the offense as well. They have home games v. ARI, NE, TEN, SF and away games @INDY & CIN. If you count DEN as a quality opponent in their division as well as ARI, that’s 8/16 quality opponents – easily the least on this list.
13. DST13 New England Patriots (22-105) 121 – 17th round
NEW ENGLAND – The Pats are really focused on improving on defense and running the football this preseason. Injuries have slowed some of the progress, with Ty Warren out for the year, CB Leigh Bodden’s knee, and Derrick Burgess’ late report to camp. They’re really high on ILB Brandon Spikes and see big things for him and Pat Chung appears to be in the lead for the starting SS job. Rookie P Zoltan Mesko may be the biggest improvement on special teams. He landed all 5 of his punts inside the 20 vs. the Saints. NE likes to use multiple return men, but here are the main players: WR Brandon Tate, WR Julian Edelman – Maroney, Faulk, Welker, Morris, rookie WR Taylor Price can also see time in addition to guys from the secondary. Their schedule includes home/away vs. MIA, NYJ, then visits from CIN, BAL, MIN, IND, GB and away games @ SD & PIT. 11/16 quality opponents – many of them at home, though.
14. DST14 Indianapolis Colts (24-102) 119.5 – 17-18th round
INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts aren’t a great defense, but they’re not the worst either. They ranked in the middle in all categories last year: 15th D-Line, 12th in the Secondary, and 13th in Special Teams. They’re hopeful about the health and availability of S Bob Sanders (again) this year. He’s looked excellent in camp and appears to be healthy and ready to play. He’s missed so many games throughout his career, though, that it’s hard for me to be as optimistic. If he plays, then there will be an adjustment period since they’re not used to playing with him. The real concern seems to be that they’re hemorrhaging points in the preseason, not playing physical. My sneaking suspicion is that they’re saving it up for the regular season, but it’s cause for concern. The KR/PR duties will be handled by a combination of players: WR Brandon James, DB Ray Fisher, and RB Devin Moore. The schedule for the Colts is no walk in the park: home/away v. TEN, HOU, then home vs. NYG, CIN, SD, DAL and away games @WAS, PHI, NE. 11/16 quality opponents, and possibly a fair amount of them being shootouts for Manning & Co.
15. DST15 Chicago Bears (15-110) 117 – 15th round
CHICAGO – The biggest news for the Bears defensively is the FA addition of Julius Peppers, who for all the talk about his reputation for not giving full effort, has been a model player for Chicago thus far. There is competition all over the defense and DC Rod Marinelli has been pleased with what he’s seen thus far. A valid question about this defense is the pressure applied by the offense’s ability (or inability) to create first downs and stay on the field. If they score as quickly as Mike Martz would like, the defense cannot get a rest, and if they are ineffective, they cannot get a rest. It’s a balancing act that remains to be seen. The real value on this DST may be the Special Teams – ranked #1 last season, even though Devin Hester wasn’t the featured return man. WR Earl Bennett and WR Johnny Knox will share the load along with DB Danieal Manning, with Hester and WR Rashied Davis (if he makes the final roster) available for spot duty.
16. DST16 Carolina Panthers (11-115) 115 – 21st round
CAROLINA – Gone is Julius Peppers, and one can wonder where the pass rush will come from in Carolina this season. Injuries have depleted the D-Line: Louis Leonard is on the PUP list with an injured knee, and Tank Tyler is recovering from a knee injury he suffered in Week 12 last year. The LBs are being reshuffled: Jon Beason is being moved from MLB while Thomas Davis is completing his recovering from a second ACL injury. There have also been a rash of injuries that have slowed the defense’s progress at the start of camp. The strength of this unit is the 4th ranked secondary, though, and they will have to be sharp as 4 of the first 5 teams they play have strong passing offenses. The punt and kick return duties will be handled by any combination of players, as there is open competition for all slots. Here are the possible return men, by position, in no particular order: WRs Kenneth Moore, Dexter Jackson, rookie WRs Armanti Edwards, Trent Guy, RBs Tyrell Sutton, Mike Goodson, CBs Captain Munnerlyn, Brian Witherspoon, and rookie CB Robert McClain. The schedule includes home/away vs. NO, ATL as well as home games vs. CIN, SF, BAL, ART and away games @NYG and PIT. 10/16 quality opponents.
17. DST17 Houston Texans (16-110) 115 – 21st round
HOUSTON – The Texans have built their team around defense and in the game v. the Cowboys over the weekend, they showed their promise. Mario Williams was a force and seems fully recovered from a hip injury that kept him out earlier in the preseason. The LBs and secondary were running to the football, and frankly, they looked more physical than the Cowboys. This unit will miss LB Brian Cushing for the first four games of the regular season due to violation of the league’s banned substances policy. The team appealed the suspension, but it was upheld by the commissioner. It may cost him his Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Stay tuned. The DLine is ranked 9th, the secondary is ranked 11th (although they lost Dunta Robinson), but the special teams is ranked 28th. The Texans were hopeful that WR Trindon Holiday could be their return specialist, but he was lost for the season after suffering ligament damage to his thumb. WR Jacoby Jones may have to resume PR/KR duties, but he’s the #2 WR. WR Andre Davis, CB Brice McCain, and FB Vonta Leach are still in the mix for return duties. The schedule includes home/away vs. IND, TEN, then home games vs. DAL, NYG, SD, BAL and away games @WAS & NYJ. 10/16 quality opponents.
18. DST18 Denver Broncos (5-123) 112.5 – 15th round
DENVER– The biggest disappointment is the loss of OLB Elvis Dumervil, the main pass rusher of the group. They’re hoping that if all goes perfectly with his rehab that he can be back in December – highly optimistic thinking, I’d say. The Broncos couldn’t stop the run last year, so they revamped their D-Line, ranked 16th in the league last year. The secondary is a top ten unit, anchored by Champ Bailey and last year’s addition S Brian Dawkins. The special teams are a strength (ranked 7th), and along with the schedule, are the only reason to draft this DST. Eddie Royal was the main KR/PR last year, but the team is hoping that CB Perrish Cox can assume that role. If he can’t, then Royal can do it again, but with more of a committee approach with WR Kenny McKinley & CB Alphonso Smith. Their schedule isn’t bad, mainly because of their division. Home/away vs. SD, home dates v. IND, NYJ and away @ BAL, SF, ARI.
19. DST19 Miami Dolphins (18-109) 110 – 18-19th round
MIAMI – The biggest addition to the Dolphins defense has to be ILB Karlos Dansby. In fact, the LB group as a whole has experienced the biggest upgrades this offseason, as they are very high on rookie OLB Koa Misi as well. Rookie DL Jared Odrick is fitting in nicely along the D-Line, where there will be a rotation including Charles Grant and Marques Douglas. The Fish have lost DL Phillip Merling and LB AJ Edds for the season and CB Will Allen just got his knee scoped, so they are looking for guys to step in and make plays. The secondary is a real mess, ranked 31st last year, the real strength is on special teams. WR Davone Bess is the main return guy, but now he’s being pushed by WR Brian Hartline and Ryan Grice-Mullen. Other guys are getting a shot to return as well. We’ll let you know if anyone stands out. Miami’s schedule includes home/away vs. NE, NYJ, then home games vs. TEN & PIT, away @ MIN, GB, CIN & BAL. 10/16 quality opponents.
20. DST20 Tennessee Titans (17-110) 107.5 – 18th round
TENNESSEE – The Titans D had real issues in the secondary last season and need CB Cortland Finnegan to be healthy for this unit to rank better than 28th in the league. The strength of the defense is the D-Line, even though they’ve lost Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosh over the past few years, they haven’t skipped a beat and have gotten younger in the process. The Special Teams are a bit of a mess, though, ranked 31st in the league, and they’re trying all kinds of guys on kickoffs and punts – too many to mention here. Keep an eye on the box scores if you’re in a league that rewards kick/punt return yardage to see if one of the offensive skill players emerges, making them more valuable. Their schedule includes home/away vs. IND, HOU, then home dates vs. PIT, PHI, WAS and away games @NYG, DAL, SD, MIA – 11/16 quality opponents.
21. DST21 Washington Redskins (30-74) 106 – 21st round
WASHINGTON – The Redskins could be a sleeper DST in fantasy this year. The offense should be improved and with all the talent that Washington has gathered over the years will be utilized differently under new DC Jim Haslett and the switch to his 3-4 scheme. The story has been Albert Haynesworth and the conditioning test, but really, the story should be how the defense is ahead of the offense in camp. If Haynesworth, Maake Kemoeatu and Adam Carriker can get it together, this would be a strong front against the run, to be sure. The LBs should benefit from a step forward by Brian Orakpo and the potential for a strong year from Andre Carter making the switch from DE. The secondary is bolstered by DeAngelo Hall and LaRon Landry, and London Fletcher is the underrated LB on the defense. This group is deep, overall, in drafted talent. The return guys are WR Devin Thomas on kickoffs and CB Philip Buchanon on punts. Two rookies will get a shot at displacing them: WR Terrence Austin and WR Brandon Banks. Many others are also competing, but these are the main players thus far. Out of all the teams in the NFC East, the Redskins have the easiest schedule – they play home/away vs. the divisional foes, then home dates vs. GB, IND, MIN and a road game vs. TEN (10/16 quality opponents).
22. DST22 Buffalo Bills (13-112) 102.5 – 21st round
BUFFALO – This unit could be a sleeper if the whole team was better, but the offense may put the defense in some tough spots this season. They’re switching to a 3-4 scheme in Buffalo, they lost Aaron Schobel (released and will either retire or sign with the Texans, it seems), but there is optimism that this group could stop the run better than last season. The secondary is top notch, ranked 2nd and the special teams are excellent as well, ranked 3rd. It’s the 21st ranked D-Line that is troubling. OLB Aaron Maybin is a focal point this preseason, taking the next step to being more of a pass rushing force, something that this defense sorely lacked last year. The Bills have some excellent returners: CB Leodis McKelvin, Fred Jackson (when healthy), CJ Spiller, RB Chad Simpson, WR Chad Jackson and last but not least WR Roscoe Parrish, now out of the doghouse to try and gain back his role as the main PR option. The schedule includes home/away vs. the AFC East, then home vs. PIT, road games @ GB, BAL, CIN & MIN will be tough ones. 11/16 quality opponents, with 7 of them on the road…ouch.
23. DST23 Arizona Cardinals (7-119) 102 – 20th round
ARIZONA – The Cardinals lost LB Karlos Dansby (Miami) and DB Antrel Rolle (NYG) in free agency, which will hurt this unit. All the Cardinals picks are signed, now that rookie 1st rounder NT Dan Williams is in camp. They have high hopes for the rookie to stuff the run and play in the middle between Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell. The secondary was torched by the Packers in the playoffs, but they escaped that game with an OT victory. They added Kerry Rhodes (Jets) to help out Antonio Rogers-Cromartie. The special teams are a strength of this unit, ranked #10 in the league. RB LaRod Stephens-Howling is the primary KR option, and WR Andre Roberts is the favorite to win the PR job. Arizona would like Steve Breaston to concentrate on being a starting WR rather than get knocked around on special teams, which is understandable. The schedule is favorable, due to weaker opponents in the division. Only 6 quality opponents, by my count: Away games @ SD, MIN, SF and home games vs. NO, SF and DAL.
24. DST24 Tampa Bay Bucs (9-116) 101.5 – 20th round
TAMPA BAY – The youth movement that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continues with the drafting of DTs Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, but they otherwise stood pat on a unit that was worst in the NFL stopping the run last season. The D-Line is ranked 31st, the secondary 13th, but the real strength is on special teams, ranked 5th in the league. The return game missed RB Clifton Smith, who was plagued by concussions last season. WR Sammie Stroughter stepped in and did well, until he broke his foot. Then, WR Micheal Spurlock was brought back to finish the year. Smith is the favorite to retain his job, with Stroughter as the backup and starting slot receiver. The schedule is a tale of two cities: easier at home, brutal on the road. In addition to the home/away schedule vs. the NFC South, the Bucs will play @ CIN, ARI, SF, BAL, WAS and host PIT without Roethlisberger.
25. DST25 Kansas City Chiefs (14-111) 98.5 – 21st round
KANSAS CITY – The Chiefs have a tough time stopping the run and generating consistent pressure on the QB. Both of those situations don’t point to a great deal of success on defense. The D-Line is ranked last in the league. However, the secondary is stellar, ranked 8th in the league. The special teams are also very good, ranked 11th. There has been a real effort to shore up the LB group this preseason. With LB Derrick Johnson in Coach Haley’s doghouse, though, it doesn’t make sense how that’s supposed to help. The return roles are pretty clear: rookie CB Javier Arenas is the return specialist on kickoffs and punts. It’s unclear when rookie WR Dexter McCluster will join Arenas on punts, as was the plan when they were both drafted. The Chiefs schedule includes home/away v. SD, DEN, then home games vs. SF, ARI, TEN and an away game @ HOU. A weak overall schedule, but if you can’t stop the run…??? 8/16 quality opponents.
26. DST26 Cleveland Browns (23-104) 97 – waiver wire
CLEVELAND – The Browns added a lot of bodies to the defense in the offseason, looking to improve: Start-worthy additions include S TJ Ward and CB Joe Haden who were added through the draft, they also signed OLB Scott Fujita as a free agent. The Browns are still waiting for DL Shaun Rogers to be healthy enough to participate in camp – they want to move him around on the line to create favorable matchups and improve the pass rush. He’s expected to be ready for Week 1. The team is set with WR Josh Cribbs at KR/PR/RB/QB – he’s the top returner in the league. But who would spell him if he were injured or couldn’t be on the field for some reason? The backups are WR Syndric Steptoe and CB Gerard Lawson, and the Browns are trying out other options in the preseason as well. The schedule is absolutely brutal, mainly because of the home/away games vs. BAL, PIT & CIN, add to those six home games vs. ATL, NE, NYJ, CAR and away @ NO & MIA and that equals 12/16 quality opponents for the Browns.
27. DST27 Atlanta Falcons (26-102) 95.5 – 21st round
ATLANTA – Perhaps you could use the Falcons DST as a bye week replacement if things work out right for them as the season goes on. Right now, they are pretty good against the run, but they got killed with the pass most of last season. They signed Dunta Robinson to help shore up the pass, drafted OLB Sean Weatherspoon and DT Corey Peters to stuff the run, and John Abraham has participated in an offseason program (Bommarito Performance Systems in SoFla) to improve his pass rush and overall performance. If they can add some speed in the return game and all of the above breaks just right, then the Falcons can be much more effective on defense and worth picking up for more than just that matchup vs. CLE, TB or SEA. After injuries to RB Jerious Norwood and WR Harry Douglas last year, WR Eric Weems stepped in to fill the void in the return game. Neither Norwood nor Douglas are healthy enough right now to take the job away from Weems, but rookie CB Dominique Franks is challenging for the job. There are others with return experience who will appear in the preseason, but Franks seems to be the main competition. The schedule doesn’t do the Falcons any favors, save for the tougher non-divisional matchups are at home vs. ARI, SF, CIN, BAL, GB, then road games @ PIT & PHI – add NO & CAR home/away to the list and that’s 11/16 quality opponents for Atlanta this year.
28. DST28 Oakland Raiders (29-77) 92.5 – 21st roundOAKLAND – The Raiders were 7th in pass defense last year, so that is a positive for this group. There’s a new DC in town as well. John Marshall’s system is a read and react defense. Additionally, CB Nnamdi Asomugha has lobbied to play against the #1 WR no matter where he lines up rather than just play on one side. Is he looking to start his own “Asomugha Land” like “Revis Island”? Either way, it’s a positive sign that he’s motivated and wants to make plays. The Raiders were horrible against the run last year, though, so there are wholesale changes afoot in Oakland that are cause for optimism in the East Bay Area. DL Richard Seymour was brought in not just for his ability, but for his leadership, add a bunch of draft picks on defense and this unit has a chance to be improved up the middle. A lot is going to be expected of MLB Rolando McClain to stop the run this year. At best, they are backup DST – at worst they are the 28th ranked DST as I have them. It wouldn’t surprise me, though, to see the Raiders and Broncos switch places on this list by the end of the year. Rock Cartwright and Johnnie Lee Higgins are slated to handle most of the return duties. The Raiders want WR Jacoby Ford to be a return specialist, but injuries are holding him back this preseason. Their schedule features home/away vs. SD, DEN, then home games vs. HOU, MIA, IND and away games @ TEN, ARI, SF, PIT. 11/16 quality opponents.
29. DST29 Seattle Seahawks (28-92) 91 – 21st round
SEATTLE – It’s tough to get excited about the Seahawks defense as a fantasy prospect, but they do play in the NFC West and generally play well vs. the Rams twice a season. There are talented players like Marcus Trufant (who has been resurgent to his 2007 form in camp right now), Aaron Curry, Jordan Babineaux, Lofa Tatupu and rookie Earl Thomas on the roster. We just don’t know what to expect from this unit under the new coaching staff, save for they will struggle. DC Casey Bradley is in his 2nd year in Seattle, so there is continuity of coaching on this side of the football. The special teams unit is in search of a long snapper. After several guys have come through and either got injured or just didn’t stick. They recently picked up Clint Gresham off waivers from the Saints. The return duties have been divided up between rookie WR Golden Tate, RBs Leon Washington, Justin Forsett, CBs Josh Wilson and rookie CB Walter Thurmond. Whoever earns the PR and KR roles will depend on workload and health factors. The schedule has only 7 quality opponents: home vs. SF, ARI, NYG and away @ SF, ARI, SD and NO.
30. DST30 St. Louis Rams (31-69) 87.5 – waiver wire
ST. LOUIS – I have looked at the schedule for at least the past three years to see who is playing against STL in the fantasy playoffs and have targeted players based on those matchups. This year really isn’t any different, save for they might move the ball a little better on offense. Steve Spagnuolo may be a great defensive coach, but he needs more talent. And aside from James Laurinaitis, Oshiomogho Atogwe and Chris Long, the Rams need work on defense. They were also hit with a rash of injuries last week, which doesn’t help, but nothing was of the season-ending variety. The special teams are a strength, with WR Danny Amendola emerging last season as the return specialist. The Rams drafted WR Mardy Gilyard and he will push for time as a return man, as soon as he heals from a wrist injury sustained over the weekend. The schedule, aside from NFC West foes, has 3 quality opponents: WAS & SD at home, NO on the road.
31. DST31 Jacksonville Jaguars (32-64) 86.5 – waiver wire
JACKSONVILLE – The Jags lack a pass rush and there are questions in the secondary. They signed Aaron Kampman to shore up the D-Line, and he’s in the rotation after recovering from ACL surgery. CB Rashean Mathis wants a new contract and he’s missed practices to express his disappointment. The team needs his leadership, though, and so hopefully something will get worked out either before or during the season. Rookie CB Scotty McGee will be the punt returner and rookie RB Deji Karim will be the kickoff returner. I wouldn’t expect too much from the Jags this season. They have home/away vs. IND, TEN, HOU – home games vs. PHI, WAS, and road games @DAL, NYG. Leave them on the waiver wire.
32. DST32 Detroit Lions (22-53) 85 – waiver wire
DETROIT – The Lions are expected to do better this season. They’ve made efforts to improve their D-Line by signing Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafting Ndamukong Suh. If successful, the stronger pass rush should take some pressure off the porous secondary, ranked 32nd in the league. The special teams are improved, although there’s a shakeup in who will be returning punts and kicks this year. WR Derrick Williams was drafted to be the specialist last year, but it never materialized. He’ll get another shot this year, and several players will join in. On kickoffs: RBs Aaron Brown and Jahvid Best, and on punts WR Tim Toone. If Dennis Northcutt and/or Nate Burleson see any work with the return teams in August should be monitored. The schedule is forgiving, though, not as much as the Rams’ schedule because of the strength of divisional opponents. In addition to playing home/away vs. the NFC North, the Lions will host PHI & WAS, and play @ NYG & DAL. 10/16 quality opponents on the schedule…ouch.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
32 TEAMS live on cbs radio online
32 TEAMS - we'll be covering the Defense/Special Teams for the NFC teams, chatting Fantasy Football with Olden Polynice and looking to hear from Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe...tune in tonight - live at 7:05PM ET!
Live Streaming by Ustream.TV">
Live Streaming by Ustream.TV">
Sunday, August 15, 2010
32 Teams PODCAST link & Stats reminder
Chat-About-It is powered by CBS Radio. Recently, there has been a merging of all the CBS entities on the web. This caused a disruption in our podcasts being available for download from the new site. Here is the URL for the podcasts for you to cut and paste into your browser...
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio-on-demand/chat-about-it-shows/
We will cover NFC Defense/Special Teams units this Tuesday, August 17th. And just a reminder about all the statistics, ADP rounds, etc. on this blog: they are calculated for a 12 team redraft league. So, make adjustments for 10 team, PPR, dynasty, keeper leagues accordingly.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio-on-demand/chat-about-it-shows/
We will cover NFC Defense/Special Teams units this Tuesday, August 17th. And just a reminder about all the statistics, ADP rounds, etc. on this blog: they are calculated for a 12 team redraft league. So, make adjustments for 10 team, PPR, dynasty, keeper leagues accordingly.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
32 Teams joins the Buffalo Wild Wings Fantasy Football League
We are pleased to announce that 32 TEAMS - The Real Fantasy Football Show is one of twelve bloggers/websites represented in the Buffalo Wild Wings Fantasy Football League. The league includes an NFL Pick'em contest as well as fantasy match-ups every week of the NFL season. We're looking forward to interviewing and beating our commissioner Trey Wingo from ESPN and as many of the bloggers we can on our way to Pasadena for the the grand prize of participating in the Pick'em Challenge Flag Football Game.
Check out the Buffalo Wild Wings site at http://ff.buffalowildwings.com/ - we will be contributing to the content of that site as well as here on our own blog.
Root on a couple of regular guys who talk football vs. bloggers who have been at it for a lot longer than we have.
Check out the Buffalo Wild Wings site at http://ff.buffalowildwings.com/ - we will be contributing to the content of that site as well as here on our own blog.
Root on a couple of regular guys who talk football vs. bloggers who have been at it for a lot longer than we have.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
TEs - 32 Teams Rankings
TEs – 32 Teams Rankings – Tuesday, August 10, 2010
32 Ranking Pos Rank – Player Name – (2009 Pos Rank – 2009 Fantasy Pts) 2010 Projection – ADP by round
1. TE1 Antonio Gates (3-163) 146 – 3-4th round
SAN DIEGO – Antonio Gates was one of three TEs with over 1000 yds receiving last year. He only had 8 TDs, which is low for him, otherwise he would’ve finished as the top fantasy TE. Instead, he finished 3rd. This year should be even better for Gates, especially in the red zone, where his targets should go up.
2. TE2 Dallas Clark (2-171) 139 – 2-3rd round
INDIANAPOLIS – Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne each accounted for 100 receptions and 10 TDs in 2009. Clark has improved in receptions and yards in each of the last four years, culminating in a career best finish that ranked him 2nd among all TEs last year. There’s not much to criticize about him as a player – pencil him in for 80-90 catches, 1000 yards and a top 3 finish among TEs. The other TEs are Gijon Robinson, Tom Santi, and Jacob Tamme.
3. TE3 Vernon Davis (1-174) 138– 4th round
SAN FRANCISCO – Vernon Davis finished as the #1 fantasy TE last season. Mike Martz was gone, Davis was healthy and was the beneficiary of 14 TD catches. It’s easy to see that 4-6 of those TDs could be Crabtree’s this year, which brings Davis’ ceiling down as a fantasy prospect. Still, though, he will be a very good option for your team, barring injury, of course. Delanie Walker is the backup.
4. TE4 Jason Witten (8-115) 135 – 4th round
DALLAS – Jason Witten was the 1st and 2nd best fantasy TE in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and last year finished 8th as he only caught 2 TDs all year. The Cowboys have focused on redzone production this offseason and want to get back to Witten, which could mean a return to his earlier stats. The backup is Martellus Bennett, who the team likes, but he’s been inconsistent.
5. TE5 Jermichael Finley (13-95) 133 – 4th round
GREEN BAY – IF he can stay healthy, Jermichael Finley can be a fine TE1 on your fantasy team. If not, then you’ll be mad that you had to take him so high in your draft. The image of Finley dominating in the playoffs left an indelible imprint on his fantasy value, but apparently his knee injury from October of last year did too, as he is still experiencing tendonitis in that same knee. There are also several other receiving options on the Packers, which would make for competition for targets. The other TEs on the roster: Donald Lee & Spencer Havner, both of whom we’re spot starters when Finley was injured.
6. TE6 Tony Gonzalez (5-122) 120 – 5th round
ATLANTA – Tony Gonzalez had his worst season since 2002, with135 targets for 83recps. 867yds. and 6TDS, however he was the TE with the most targets in the red zone (25). While he’s not the elite guy he once was, he should be able to put a nice year together for your fantasy team and get back over 1000 yds receiving again.
7. TE7 Kellen Winslow Jr. (7-118) 115 – 7-8th round
TAMPA BAY – Kellen Winslow finished seventh among fantasy tight ends with 884 yards and 5 touchdowns on 77 catches. He was the team's most reliable receiver and was fairly consistent all season, with six games of 75 yards or more. There are concerns about his right knee that has been operated on 5 times, with another procedure this offseason. Also, he has yet to catch a TD from Josh Freeman, but that should change relatively early with Josh as the full time starter. The main backup is Jerramy Stevens.
8. TE8 Brent Celek (4-145) 111 – 5-6th round
PHILADELPHIA – Brent Celek burst up to elite TE status when Cornelius Ingram went down with a season ending ACL injury last year, leaving Celek as the full-time TE. The plan was for them to share the TE targets last year and that may be the case this year. However, that plan could be changed because of Celek’s success and Ingram’s knee is still not 100%. Celek and Kevin Kolb are roommates and good friends off the field – don’t discount that chemistry and trust, even though I’d feel more confident about Celek if McNabb was around. Rookie Clay Harbor was drafted to provide depth and will compete with Ingram for the backup spot.
9. TE9 Zach Miller (12-98) 108 – 9th round
OAKLAND – Zach Miller led all Raider receivers in catches, yards, and touchdowns last season. He and McFadden were the top receiving options. This should only be enhanced with Jason Campbell under center, attending practices, working out, participating as a professional football player. I feel that Miller could be a viable starting TE option this year given the history Campbell had with Cooley and Fred Davis last season.
10. TE10 Owen Daniels (17-81) 106 – 7th round
HOUSTON – Owen Daniels had 78 fantasy points through 8 games before going down with an ACL injury last November. He was having a monster season and would’ve projected to be the #1 fantasy TE (156 pts) if he could’ve kept up this pace. Now, he’s not expected back from injury until Week 1, possibly the last week of the preseason at the earliest. This tempers the fantasy forecast for him, with a slow start expected. And, oh yeah, Daniels is in a contract year. Who gets the snaps in his absence? Joel Dreessen, who’s more of a blocker, but filled in nicely last year. James Casey, who saw limited time last year and shows promise this offseason now that he’s solely focused on playing TE. The Texans drafted a rookie TE in the fourth round as insurance: Garrett Graham **sleeper alert**– he’s more of a dynasty prospect should Daniels move on to another team at the end of the season. They both went to Wisconsin, btw.
11. TE11 Heath Miller (9-114) 106 – 12th round
PITTSBURGH – When Heath Miller came into the NFL, one of the owners in my dynasty league drafted him too high thinking I wanted him on my team just because we had the same first name. I didn’t. He should benefit from the absence of Santonio Holmes, believe it or not, and either Leftwich or Dixon will be happy to have him as a checkdown option. 60-70 receptions and 700 yards are not out of the question for Heath – not bad for a 12th round pick, huh? Matt Spaeth is the backup here – the other two guys are blockers in the run game.
12. TE12 Visanthe Shiancoe (6-122) 102 – 8-9th round
MINNESOTA – Last year, Visanthe Shiancoe joined a list of fantasy TEs brought to prominence by the fact that Brett Favre likes to target TEs in the red zone. Shiancoe caught 11 TDs with over 500 yards last year and showed consistent hands all year. As long as Favre comes back, those numbers should be about the same, red zone targets and all. It’s tough to count on TD production year-to-year, though, so think more around 7-8 TDs instead of 11. Jim Kleinsasser is the backup.
13. TE13 Chris Cooley (26-43) 95 – 9th round
TE21 Fred Davis (16-86) 65 – 19th round **value pick**
WASHINGTON – Chris Cooley has five seasons with at least 700 yards and four seasons with at least six scores -- none of them with a strong fantasy producer at quarterback. Even with third-year talent Fred Davis flashing his potential after Cooley missed nine games last year with an ankle injury, Cooley will remain a significant part of the offense. His RAC abilities and consistent production can’t be ignored. Fred Davis may be the 2nd best receiving option on the team behind Santana Moss and he showed lots of ability when Cooley was out last year, so expect more 2 TE sets to get the better receivers on the field.
14. TE14 John Carlson (11-99) 90 – 11th round
SEATTLE – John Carlson started last year off with a bang (21 fantasy pts), then saw mediocre stats for several weeks as he was kept in to block with injuries to the O-line, and then came on late toward the fantasy playoffs. The new regime in Seattle likes to run 2 TE sets, and with Chris Baker as the blocking TE, this will free up Carlson to catch some passes. He has the upside to crack the top ten TEs this year, provided Hasselbeck and the O-line can stay healthy.
15. TE15 Dustin Keller (20-64) 74 – 11th round
NEW YORK JETS – Everyone in NYC is gaga over Dustin Keller’s production late last season and into the playoffs, but the breakout season that people predicted for him in 2009 never really materialized. He finished as the 20th fantasy TE for only 64 pts and his targets went up by only 4 for the season. If he’s going to breakout, the coaching staff needs to call his number more, and with all the new receiving options on the Jets (which includes Tomlinson out of the backfield too, a new thing for Gang Green), I don’t see it happening. Ben Hartsock is the other TE on the roster – dude is a mean blocker. If Keller goes down with injury, they will go outside the organization to replace him as a receiver.
16. TE16 Kevin Boss (15-87) 70 – 15th round
NEW YORK GIANTS – Kevin Boss is coming off his best season in his 4 year career (42 rec, 567yds, 5tds), but he also had offseason ankle surgery that may slow him down in training camp. He should be fine by the beginning of the regular season. Second year TE Travis Beckum will get the majority of reps in Boss’ absence (both of these guys are hurt right now, though). The Giants like his potential, but he’s yet to show the consistency & promise he showed in college at the pro level.
17. TE17 Jeremy Shockey (18-74) 57 – 13th round
NEW ORLEANS – Jeremy Shockey has an injury history and he’s not at all expected to play a full 16 game season. He’s had an apparent seizure during minicamp, then a back injury and most recently a sore knee. His injuries are making the way for rookie and former UM basketball standout **Jimmy Graham**sleeper alert** and David Thomas (not the Wendy’s guy) to stand out. Graham seems to be the long-term replacement and Thomas has filled in admirably when called upon.
18. TE18 Greg Olsen (10-109) 55 – 12-13th round
CHICAGO – Greg Olsen seems to have the most to lose in terms of fantasy value in the Mike Martz offense. Take a look at Vernon Davis’ year under Martz (31 rec, 358 yds, 2tds = 52 fantasy pts) and that’s what we might expect from Olsen. I would give him a little more just in case he lines up wide in the preseason. I’ll be avoiding the former UM TE in all formats, just as Martz’ offensive system does. The rest of the TEs are blockers mainly, and therefore useless on your fantasy team.
19. TE19 Tony Scheffler (22-53) 55 – 18th round
TE24 Brandon Pettigrew (24-47) 50 – 19th round
DETROIT – It’s not 100% clear how the Lions plan to use Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew this season. Pettigrew was showing good chemistry with Matt Stafford but then missed the last 5 games with a knee injury. He still finished as the 24th ranked WR in fantasy. Then, Detroit went out and got Tony Scheffler. Now, they say he’ll be used more as a WR, but with Pettigrew being the better blocker, why do I see a split workload here in two TE sets? You can take a flyer on one of these guys as a backup TE on your roster, but I wouldn’t count on either as your #1 starter.
20. TE20 Todd Heap (25-126) 57 – 18th round
BALTIMORE – Todd Heap played 16 games for the second year in a row and caught 53 passes for 593 yards and six touchdowns – his best year to date. His reward? The Ravens drafted two TEs to replace him and added more receiving options for Joe Flacco to limit his targets. This will be the last season we are talking about Heap as a top 25 TE in fantasy. Who are the rookies? Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson – Pitta seems to be the better pass catcher, but let’s see who can block AND catch passes. The Ravens are known to run the football just a little bit, don’t ya know?
21. TE25 Anthony Fasano (30-41) 55 – 21st round
MIAMI – In my redraft league last season, someone took Anthony Fasano in the 7th round – my jaw dropped and then one of the other owners berated and mocked the guy who made the pick, who was “rewarded” with 41 points and the 30th fantasy TE in a round where he could’ve picked Ray Rice….Ouch! Temper your enthusiasm for Fasano in this, his contract year, and leave him undrafted. While he’s a good option as a bye week fill-in, figure he should be on and off the waiver wire should you need him. The other TE in Miami is Joey Haynos, who has a massive wingspan and jumping ability. Good for you if you can figure out which game they’ll feature his skills in the redzone for the two fantasy relevant days he’ll have this upcoming season.
22. TE22 Bo Scaife (24-48) 52 – 22nd round
TE30 Jared Cook (70-7) 43 – 19th round
TENNESSEE – The Titans employ a TE by committee approach. Last year, three TEs caught 82 passes. If circumstances lead to one guy being “the guy”, then any one of these players can be a fantasy starter. They’re just spread too thin right now. Bo Scaife was the leading TE of the group last year, and caught 45 balls for 440 yards and 1td. Alge Crumpler is in New England now, which allows Jared Cook to leap up the depth chart to be the backup. Cook has Antonio Gates-like skills, but isn’t much of a blocker. This explains why he had only 9 catches last season. The third of this season’s triumvirate of TEs is third year pro Craig Stevens. Don’t draft these guys, please.
23. TE23 Ben Watson (19-70) 42 – 20th round
CLEVELAND – Ben Watson has the talent to be the top receiving option for the Browns, but my question is why did New England let him go? It must be that Brady lost confidence in him. Too many times did I see Brady slump a little after Watson wasn’t able to make the play that he was called upon to make. Now that he has Delhomme throwing the football to him, do we think this inconsistency in his play is going to get any better? I don’t think so. Alex Smith is a heck of a blocker, so he’ll see some time at TE. The guy to watch, though, as a receiving TE may be Evan Moore – he’s essentially an oversized WR, but his blocking is a question mark. The whole situation has committee written all over it, but let’s see what happens in the preseason and if Delhomme and Watson build any chemistry.
24. TE26 Zach Miller (37-33) 46 – 22nd round
TE28 Marcedes Lewis (21-63) 44 – 23rd round
JACKSONVILLE – Both Zach Miller (the “other” Zach Miller, I should say) and Marcedes Lewis will probably form a TE by committee for David Garrard and the Jags. Marcedes is the starter and had his best season in 2010 with over 500 yds and 2tds, but Miller had a strong finish that has many believing he could overtake Lewis for the starting job. Let’s see if he makes the most of this opportunity in training camp. With the lack of viable weapons at the WR position, we may see these guys play a prominent role sooner rather than later.
25. TE27 Jermaine Gresham (Rookie) 40 – 14-17th round
CINCINNATI – Reggie Kelly is listed as the starter for the Who Deys, but rookie Jermaine Gresham is expected to be the starter Week 1 as the pass catching TE. He will add a dimension to an offense that hasn’t had a viable pass catching TE in quite a few years. 30 receptions, 300-350 yards and 4-5 TDs should be about right for the rookie from Oklahoma.
26. TE29 Aaron Hernandez (Rookie) 34 – 21st round
NEW ENGLAND – Aaron Hernandez has first round talent but dropped to the fourth round in the NFL draft because of one word: Marijuana. Now, he hasn’t tested positive in the NFL, and only tested positive once at Univ. of Florida. No matter he smoked or didn’t smoke, his skills as a receiver and blocker are undeniable. He was called ‘our Percy Harvin’ last year at UF. In other words, he was the “mismatch maker”. I would think that Belichick could find a use for such a player in order to create mismatches vs. their opponents.
27. TE31 Shawn Nelson (50-19) 31 – 22nd round
BUFFALO – I can’t say that I’m not too excited by the Buffalo Bills fantasy-wise, but Shawn Nelson is a fast, talented guy who runs crisp routes and looked good as a rookie in limited duty. He could use to put on some muscle, which would improve his blocking. I just wish he played in a more potent offense. He’s a waiver wire guy at best, but with the lack of quality receiving options and the new coaching staff, he could garner 50-60 targets this year. Derek Schouman, Jonathan Stupar, and Michael Matthews are battling for a spot here as well. Ignore them on draft day.
28. TE32 Daniel Graham (36-34) 38 – waiver wire
DENVER– Daniel Graham is a strong blocker for the running game, yet he’ll probably grab 2-3 TDs this season and catch a couple of passes per game. The departure of Tony Scheffler opens things up for Richard Quinn, who has been compared to Graham throughout his career. Expect the same type of production from him, should the Broncos rely a little more on the TEs rather than the slot guys in the short passing game.
29. TE33 Tony Moeaki (Rookie) 40 – 19th round **value pick**
KANSAS CITY – I like Tony Moeaki a lot, and so do his teammates thus far. Reports of players chanting his name when he makes a play have become commonplace. This is a guy who has the opportunity to start, the talent to take advantage of the opportunity, and he can block. The only question with him is durability – he played in 20 games the past three years at Iowa. Still, though, Charlie Weis will find a way to get him involved. If healthy, 4-6 targets/game for 40 yards and the occasional score don’t seem unreasonable, which translates into 48 catches, 640 yards and 5 TDs over the season. That’s around 85 fantasy points, and would put Moeaki in the borderline starter/bye week replacement category. I have him ranked low because of these durability concerns. Leonard Pope and Brad Cottam are the backups.
30. TE35 Daniel Fells (28-43) 46 – waiver wire
ST. LOUIS – Daniel Fells was a part-time player last year, playing behind Randy McMichael. Now, he’s the starter in his third year, but I wouldn’t draft him – not utilized enough.
31. TE36 Gary Barnidge (46-24) 34 – waiver wire
CAROLINA – Gary Barnidge is in his third year, and if he could get a lion share of the targets, he’d be a viable fantasy option, but he shares targets with Dante Rosario and Jeff King, making all of them waiver wire fodder unless something changes about their opportunity.
32. TE41 Steven Spach (115-19) 13 – ouch
ARIZONA - None of the tight ends had more than a dozen catches last year, and for the most part they are afterthoughts both in the Cardinal passing attack and in fantasy football.
32 Ranking Pos Rank – Player Name – (2009 Pos Rank – 2009 Fantasy Pts) 2010 Projection – ADP by round
1. TE1 Antonio Gates (3-163) 146 – 3-4th round
SAN DIEGO – Antonio Gates was one of three TEs with over 1000 yds receiving last year. He only had 8 TDs, which is low for him, otherwise he would’ve finished as the top fantasy TE. Instead, he finished 3rd. This year should be even better for Gates, especially in the red zone, where his targets should go up.
2. TE2 Dallas Clark (2-171) 139 – 2-3rd round
INDIANAPOLIS – Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne each accounted for 100 receptions and 10 TDs in 2009. Clark has improved in receptions and yards in each of the last four years, culminating in a career best finish that ranked him 2nd among all TEs last year. There’s not much to criticize about him as a player – pencil him in for 80-90 catches, 1000 yards and a top 3 finish among TEs. The other TEs are Gijon Robinson, Tom Santi, and Jacob Tamme.
3. TE3 Vernon Davis (1-174) 138– 4th round
SAN FRANCISCO – Vernon Davis finished as the #1 fantasy TE last season. Mike Martz was gone, Davis was healthy and was the beneficiary of 14 TD catches. It’s easy to see that 4-6 of those TDs could be Crabtree’s this year, which brings Davis’ ceiling down as a fantasy prospect. Still, though, he will be a very good option for your team, barring injury, of course. Delanie Walker is the backup.
4. TE4 Jason Witten (8-115) 135 – 4th round
DALLAS – Jason Witten was the 1st and 2nd best fantasy TE in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and last year finished 8th as he only caught 2 TDs all year. The Cowboys have focused on redzone production this offseason and want to get back to Witten, which could mean a return to his earlier stats. The backup is Martellus Bennett, who the team likes, but he’s been inconsistent.
5. TE5 Jermichael Finley (13-95) 133 – 4th round
GREEN BAY – IF he can stay healthy, Jermichael Finley can be a fine TE1 on your fantasy team. If not, then you’ll be mad that you had to take him so high in your draft. The image of Finley dominating in the playoffs left an indelible imprint on his fantasy value, but apparently his knee injury from October of last year did too, as he is still experiencing tendonitis in that same knee. There are also several other receiving options on the Packers, which would make for competition for targets. The other TEs on the roster: Donald Lee & Spencer Havner, both of whom we’re spot starters when Finley was injured.
6. TE6 Tony Gonzalez (5-122) 120 – 5th round
ATLANTA – Tony Gonzalez had his worst season since 2002, with135 targets for 83recps. 867yds. and 6TDS, however he was the TE with the most targets in the red zone (25). While he’s not the elite guy he once was, he should be able to put a nice year together for your fantasy team and get back over 1000 yds receiving again.
7. TE7 Kellen Winslow Jr. (7-118) 115 – 7-8th round
TAMPA BAY – Kellen Winslow finished seventh among fantasy tight ends with 884 yards and 5 touchdowns on 77 catches. He was the team's most reliable receiver and was fairly consistent all season, with six games of 75 yards or more. There are concerns about his right knee that has been operated on 5 times, with another procedure this offseason. Also, he has yet to catch a TD from Josh Freeman, but that should change relatively early with Josh as the full time starter. The main backup is Jerramy Stevens.
8. TE8 Brent Celek (4-145) 111 – 5-6th round
PHILADELPHIA – Brent Celek burst up to elite TE status when Cornelius Ingram went down with a season ending ACL injury last year, leaving Celek as the full-time TE. The plan was for them to share the TE targets last year and that may be the case this year. However, that plan could be changed because of Celek’s success and Ingram’s knee is still not 100%. Celek and Kevin Kolb are roommates and good friends off the field – don’t discount that chemistry and trust, even though I’d feel more confident about Celek if McNabb was around. Rookie Clay Harbor was drafted to provide depth and will compete with Ingram for the backup spot.
9. TE9 Zach Miller (12-98) 108 – 9th round
OAKLAND – Zach Miller led all Raider receivers in catches, yards, and touchdowns last season. He and McFadden were the top receiving options. This should only be enhanced with Jason Campbell under center, attending practices, working out, participating as a professional football player. I feel that Miller could be a viable starting TE option this year given the history Campbell had with Cooley and Fred Davis last season.
10. TE10 Owen Daniels (17-81) 106 – 7th round
HOUSTON – Owen Daniels had 78 fantasy points through 8 games before going down with an ACL injury last November. He was having a monster season and would’ve projected to be the #1 fantasy TE (156 pts) if he could’ve kept up this pace. Now, he’s not expected back from injury until Week 1, possibly the last week of the preseason at the earliest. This tempers the fantasy forecast for him, with a slow start expected. And, oh yeah, Daniels is in a contract year. Who gets the snaps in his absence? Joel Dreessen, who’s more of a blocker, but filled in nicely last year. James Casey, who saw limited time last year and shows promise this offseason now that he’s solely focused on playing TE. The Texans drafted a rookie TE in the fourth round as insurance: Garrett Graham **sleeper alert**– he’s more of a dynasty prospect should Daniels move on to another team at the end of the season. They both went to Wisconsin, btw.
11. TE11 Heath Miller (9-114) 106 – 12th round
PITTSBURGH – When Heath Miller came into the NFL, one of the owners in my dynasty league drafted him too high thinking I wanted him on my team just because we had the same first name. I didn’t. He should benefit from the absence of Santonio Holmes, believe it or not, and either Leftwich or Dixon will be happy to have him as a checkdown option. 60-70 receptions and 700 yards are not out of the question for Heath – not bad for a 12th round pick, huh? Matt Spaeth is the backup here – the other two guys are blockers in the run game.
12. TE12 Visanthe Shiancoe (6-122) 102 – 8-9th round
MINNESOTA – Last year, Visanthe Shiancoe joined a list of fantasy TEs brought to prominence by the fact that Brett Favre likes to target TEs in the red zone. Shiancoe caught 11 TDs with over 500 yards last year and showed consistent hands all year. As long as Favre comes back, those numbers should be about the same, red zone targets and all. It’s tough to count on TD production year-to-year, though, so think more around 7-8 TDs instead of 11. Jim Kleinsasser is the backup.
13. TE13 Chris Cooley (26-43) 95 – 9th round
TE21 Fred Davis (16-86) 65 – 19th round **value pick**
WASHINGTON – Chris Cooley has five seasons with at least 700 yards and four seasons with at least six scores -- none of them with a strong fantasy producer at quarterback. Even with third-year talent Fred Davis flashing his potential after Cooley missed nine games last year with an ankle injury, Cooley will remain a significant part of the offense. His RAC abilities and consistent production can’t be ignored. Fred Davis may be the 2nd best receiving option on the team behind Santana Moss and he showed lots of ability when Cooley was out last year, so expect more 2 TE sets to get the better receivers on the field.
14. TE14 John Carlson (11-99) 90 – 11th round
SEATTLE – John Carlson started last year off with a bang (21 fantasy pts), then saw mediocre stats for several weeks as he was kept in to block with injuries to the O-line, and then came on late toward the fantasy playoffs. The new regime in Seattle likes to run 2 TE sets, and with Chris Baker as the blocking TE, this will free up Carlson to catch some passes. He has the upside to crack the top ten TEs this year, provided Hasselbeck and the O-line can stay healthy.
15. TE15 Dustin Keller (20-64) 74 – 11th round
NEW YORK JETS – Everyone in NYC is gaga over Dustin Keller’s production late last season and into the playoffs, but the breakout season that people predicted for him in 2009 never really materialized. He finished as the 20th fantasy TE for only 64 pts and his targets went up by only 4 for the season. If he’s going to breakout, the coaching staff needs to call his number more, and with all the new receiving options on the Jets (which includes Tomlinson out of the backfield too, a new thing for Gang Green), I don’t see it happening. Ben Hartsock is the other TE on the roster – dude is a mean blocker. If Keller goes down with injury, they will go outside the organization to replace him as a receiver.
16. TE16 Kevin Boss (15-87) 70 – 15th round
NEW YORK GIANTS – Kevin Boss is coming off his best season in his 4 year career (42 rec, 567yds, 5tds), but he also had offseason ankle surgery that may slow him down in training camp. He should be fine by the beginning of the regular season. Second year TE Travis Beckum will get the majority of reps in Boss’ absence (both of these guys are hurt right now, though). The Giants like his potential, but he’s yet to show the consistency & promise he showed in college at the pro level.
17. TE17 Jeremy Shockey (18-74) 57 – 13th round
NEW ORLEANS – Jeremy Shockey has an injury history and he’s not at all expected to play a full 16 game season. He’s had an apparent seizure during minicamp, then a back injury and most recently a sore knee. His injuries are making the way for rookie and former UM basketball standout **Jimmy Graham**sleeper alert** and David Thomas (not the Wendy’s guy) to stand out. Graham seems to be the long-term replacement and Thomas has filled in admirably when called upon.
18. TE18 Greg Olsen (10-109) 55 – 12-13th round
CHICAGO – Greg Olsen seems to have the most to lose in terms of fantasy value in the Mike Martz offense. Take a look at Vernon Davis’ year under Martz (31 rec, 358 yds, 2tds = 52 fantasy pts) and that’s what we might expect from Olsen. I would give him a little more just in case he lines up wide in the preseason. I’ll be avoiding the former UM TE in all formats, just as Martz’ offensive system does. The rest of the TEs are blockers mainly, and therefore useless on your fantasy team.
19. TE19 Tony Scheffler (22-53) 55 – 18th round
TE24 Brandon Pettigrew (24-47) 50 – 19th round
DETROIT – It’s not 100% clear how the Lions plan to use Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew this season. Pettigrew was showing good chemistry with Matt Stafford but then missed the last 5 games with a knee injury. He still finished as the 24th ranked WR in fantasy. Then, Detroit went out and got Tony Scheffler. Now, they say he’ll be used more as a WR, but with Pettigrew being the better blocker, why do I see a split workload here in two TE sets? You can take a flyer on one of these guys as a backup TE on your roster, but I wouldn’t count on either as your #1 starter.
20. TE20 Todd Heap (25-126) 57 – 18th round
BALTIMORE – Todd Heap played 16 games for the second year in a row and caught 53 passes for 593 yards and six touchdowns – his best year to date. His reward? The Ravens drafted two TEs to replace him and added more receiving options for Joe Flacco to limit his targets. This will be the last season we are talking about Heap as a top 25 TE in fantasy. Who are the rookies? Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson – Pitta seems to be the better pass catcher, but let’s see who can block AND catch passes. The Ravens are known to run the football just a little bit, don’t ya know?
21. TE25 Anthony Fasano (30-41) 55 – 21st round
MIAMI – In my redraft league last season, someone took Anthony Fasano in the 7th round – my jaw dropped and then one of the other owners berated and mocked the guy who made the pick, who was “rewarded” with 41 points and the 30th fantasy TE in a round where he could’ve picked Ray Rice….Ouch! Temper your enthusiasm for Fasano in this, his contract year, and leave him undrafted. While he’s a good option as a bye week fill-in, figure he should be on and off the waiver wire should you need him. The other TE in Miami is Joey Haynos, who has a massive wingspan and jumping ability. Good for you if you can figure out which game they’ll feature his skills in the redzone for the two fantasy relevant days he’ll have this upcoming season.
22. TE22 Bo Scaife (24-48) 52 – 22nd round
TE30 Jared Cook (70-7) 43 – 19th round
TENNESSEE – The Titans employ a TE by committee approach. Last year, three TEs caught 82 passes. If circumstances lead to one guy being “the guy”, then any one of these players can be a fantasy starter. They’re just spread too thin right now. Bo Scaife was the leading TE of the group last year, and caught 45 balls for 440 yards and 1td. Alge Crumpler is in New England now, which allows Jared Cook to leap up the depth chart to be the backup. Cook has Antonio Gates-like skills, but isn’t much of a blocker. This explains why he had only 9 catches last season. The third of this season’s triumvirate of TEs is third year pro Craig Stevens. Don’t draft these guys, please.
23. TE23 Ben Watson (19-70) 42 – 20th round
CLEVELAND – Ben Watson has the talent to be the top receiving option for the Browns, but my question is why did New England let him go? It must be that Brady lost confidence in him. Too many times did I see Brady slump a little after Watson wasn’t able to make the play that he was called upon to make. Now that he has Delhomme throwing the football to him, do we think this inconsistency in his play is going to get any better? I don’t think so. Alex Smith is a heck of a blocker, so he’ll see some time at TE. The guy to watch, though, as a receiving TE may be Evan Moore – he’s essentially an oversized WR, but his blocking is a question mark. The whole situation has committee written all over it, but let’s see what happens in the preseason and if Delhomme and Watson build any chemistry.
24. TE26 Zach Miller (37-33) 46 – 22nd round
TE28 Marcedes Lewis (21-63) 44 – 23rd round
JACKSONVILLE – Both Zach Miller (the “other” Zach Miller, I should say) and Marcedes Lewis will probably form a TE by committee for David Garrard and the Jags. Marcedes is the starter and had his best season in 2010 with over 500 yds and 2tds, but Miller had a strong finish that has many believing he could overtake Lewis for the starting job. Let’s see if he makes the most of this opportunity in training camp. With the lack of viable weapons at the WR position, we may see these guys play a prominent role sooner rather than later.
25. TE27 Jermaine Gresham (Rookie) 40 – 14-17th round
CINCINNATI – Reggie Kelly is listed as the starter for the Who Deys, but rookie Jermaine Gresham is expected to be the starter Week 1 as the pass catching TE. He will add a dimension to an offense that hasn’t had a viable pass catching TE in quite a few years. 30 receptions, 300-350 yards and 4-5 TDs should be about right for the rookie from Oklahoma.
26. TE29 Aaron Hernandez (Rookie) 34 – 21st round
NEW ENGLAND – Aaron Hernandez has first round talent but dropped to the fourth round in the NFL draft because of one word: Marijuana. Now, he hasn’t tested positive in the NFL, and only tested positive once at Univ. of Florida. No matter he smoked or didn’t smoke, his skills as a receiver and blocker are undeniable. He was called ‘our Percy Harvin’ last year at UF. In other words, he was the “mismatch maker”. I would think that Belichick could find a use for such a player in order to create mismatches vs. their opponents.
27. TE31 Shawn Nelson (50-19) 31 – 22nd round
BUFFALO – I can’t say that I’m not too excited by the Buffalo Bills fantasy-wise, but Shawn Nelson is a fast, talented guy who runs crisp routes and looked good as a rookie in limited duty. He could use to put on some muscle, which would improve his blocking. I just wish he played in a more potent offense. He’s a waiver wire guy at best, but with the lack of quality receiving options and the new coaching staff, he could garner 50-60 targets this year. Derek Schouman, Jonathan Stupar, and Michael Matthews are battling for a spot here as well. Ignore them on draft day.
28. TE32 Daniel Graham (36-34) 38 – waiver wire
DENVER– Daniel Graham is a strong blocker for the running game, yet he’ll probably grab 2-3 TDs this season and catch a couple of passes per game. The departure of Tony Scheffler opens things up for Richard Quinn, who has been compared to Graham throughout his career. Expect the same type of production from him, should the Broncos rely a little more on the TEs rather than the slot guys in the short passing game.
29. TE33 Tony Moeaki (Rookie) 40 – 19th round **value pick**
KANSAS CITY – I like Tony Moeaki a lot, and so do his teammates thus far. Reports of players chanting his name when he makes a play have become commonplace. This is a guy who has the opportunity to start, the talent to take advantage of the opportunity, and he can block. The only question with him is durability – he played in 20 games the past three years at Iowa. Still, though, Charlie Weis will find a way to get him involved. If healthy, 4-6 targets/game for 40 yards and the occasional score don’t seem unreasonable, which translates into 48 catches, 640 yards and 5 TDs over the season. That’s around 85 fantasy points, and would put Moeaki in the borderline starter/bye week replacement category. I have him ranked low because of these durability concerns. Leonard Pope and Brad Cottam are the backups.
30. TE35 Daniel Fells (28-43) 46 – waiver wire
ST. LOUIS – Daniel Fells was a part-time player last year, playing behind Randy McMichael. Now, he’s the starter in his third year, but I wouldn’t draft him – not utilized enough.
31. TE36 Gary Barnidge (46-24) 34 – waiver wire
CAROLINA – Gary Barnidge is in his third year, and if he could get a lion share of the targets, he’d be a viable fantasy option, but he shares targets with Dante Rosario and Jeff King, making all of them waiver wire fodder unless something changes about their opportunity.
32. TE41 Steven Spach (115-19) 13 – ouch
ARIZONA - None of the tight ends had more than a dozen catches last year, and for the most part they are afterthoughts both in the Cardinal passing attack and in fantasy football.
8/10/10 Show - AFC TEs & Kickers
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Tuesday, August 3, 2010
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